8291 Lozier Avenue Ave · Warren, MI 48089

$116,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,388 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 204 Days on market

Built 1950 4,792 sqft lot $84/sqft · 6% below area Est $123k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* TENANT OCCUPIED * See this 3 Bedroom, 2 full bath home today. Walk in closet, nice size backyard, No Garage. Not Far from Lincoln High School and Lincoln Elementary School. Tenant as been there since 2014, currently paying $1,096.39. In contract until 11/1/2025, then month to month.

Key facts

• Nice size backyard
• Walk in closet
• 4,792 sq ft lot

Tags

• WALK IN CLOSET
• NICE SIZE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $116k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $116k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.3% in Warren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in MI, #4,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities D, employment D.
• Van Dyke Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #512 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 160 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $802 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $102,080 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.04%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $122,791
• List price: $116,000
• Delta: -5.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8420 Jewett Ave	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,275 (-8%)	1mo	$110,000	$86	72
8269 Sterling St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,300 (-6%)	1mo	$187,000	$144	67
8205 State Park	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,287 (-7%)	2mo	$186,000	$145	62
8244 Hupp Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-6%)	3mo	$188,500	$145	62
8316 Hudson Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,300 (-6%)	1mo	$94,000	$72	59
7519 Packard Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,291 (-7%)	3mo	$224,500	$174	54
8268 Hudson Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,258 (-9%)	2mo	$145,000	$115	53
7726 Coolidge	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,289 (-7%)	3mo	$193,000	$150	52
7051 Maxwell Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,234 (-11%)	3mo	$135,000	$109	50
7535 Henry St	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,553 (+12%)	4mo	$250,000	$161	47
8221 Coolidge Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,220 (-12%)	1mo	$178,000	$146	45
11036 Studebaker Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-9%)	3mo	$150,000	$119	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,240
• Equity at exit: $17,296

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $17,118
• Equity at exit: $10,030

Cash invested: $32,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48089

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,387 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,335/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,078

Max offer price $116,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $310	-5% $278	+0% $245	+5% $212	+10% $179
Rent	-10% $135	-5% $190	+0% $245	+5% $300	+10% $354
Rate	-1.0pp $303	-0.5pp $274	base $245	+0.5pp $215	+1.0pp $184

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,000
• Closing costs: $3,480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8125 Timken Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	948	$1,270	$1.34	5d	1	0.15mi
8509 Paige Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	24d	1	0.19mi
8707 Continental Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	968	$1,200	$1.24	18d	1	0.29mi
8707 Continental Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	5d	1	0.29mi
8693 Paige Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	24d	1	0.29mi
8716 Timken Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,400	$1.39	24d	1	0.30mi
11076 Essex Ave Warren, MI	4.0	1.0	1072	$1,400	$1.31	44d	1	0.41mi
7256 Ready Ave Warren, MI	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	24d	1	0.45mi
11099 Dodge Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	1190	$1,150	$0.97	21d	1	0.47mi
8251 Hudson Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	908	$1,400	$1.54	24d	1	0.54mi
11332 Republic Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,500	$1.32	24d	1	0.57mi
7568 Hudson Ave Unit 2 Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	1415	$900	$0.64	5d	1	0.64mi
7568 Hudson Ave Unit 1 Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1415	$1,100	$0.78	5d	1	0.64mi
11359 Maxwell Ave Unit 11359 Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	4d	1	0.66mi
11076 Hudson Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	936	$1,395	$1.49	3d	1	0.68mi
7044 Hudson Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.5	1730	$1,700	$0.98	24d	1	0.75mi
8162 Orchard Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	44d	1	0.77mi
7511 Toepfer Rd Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,199	$1.16	22d	1	0.78mi
11319 Chalmers Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	975	$1,500	$1.54	24d	1	0.84mi
7043 Meadow Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	911	$1,274	$1.40	44d	1	0.94mi
25005 Lawrence Ave Center Line, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1000	$955	$0.95	44d	1	0.97mi
7060 Victory Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	945	$1,450	$1.53	12d	1	1.01mi
11228 Sherman Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	13d	1	1.09mi
8285 Rivard Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	902	$1,549	$1.72	24d	1	1.14mi
11377 Sherman Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	24d	1	1.14mi
11404 Warren Blvd Unit 102 Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	24d	1	1.16mi
8625 Dale Center Line, MI	3.0	1.5	1179	$1,796	$1.52	44d	1	1.27mi
22622 Panama Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.5	920	$1,395	$1.52	11d	1	1.42mi
25146 Wagner Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	906	$1,900	$2.10	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $116,000 Active 204 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $116,000 Active 203 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $116,000 Active 202 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $116,000 Active 201 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $116,000 Active 199 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $116,000 Active 198 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $116,000 Active 195 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $116,000 Active 194 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $116,000 Active 193 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $116,000 Active 190 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $116,000 Active 189 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $116,000 Active 188 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $116,000 Active 187 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $116,000 Active 186 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    status Active 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    * TENANT OCCUPIED * See this 3 Bedroom, 2 full bath home today. Walk in closet, nice size backyard, No Garage. Not Far from Lincoln High School and Lincoln Elementary School. Tenant as been there since 2014, currently paying $1,096.39. In contract until 11/1/2025, then month to month.

16. 2026-04-16
    status Active 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    * TENANT OCCUPIED * See this 3 Bedroom, 2 full bath home today. Walk in closet, nice size backyard, No Garage. Not Far from Lincoln High School and Lincoln Elementary School. Tenant as been there since 2014, currently paying $1,096.39. In contract until 11/1/2025, then month to month.

17. 2026-04-16
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    * TENANT OCCUPIED * See this 3 Bedroom, 2 full bath home today. Walk in closet, nice size backyard, No Garage. Not Far from Lincoln High School and Lincoln Elementary School. Tenant as been there since 2014, currently paying $1,096.39. In contract until 11/1/2025, then month to month.

18. 2026-03-03
    status Pending 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    * TENANT OCCUPIED * See this 3 Bedroom, 2 full bath home today. Walk in closet, nice size backyard, No Garage. Not Far from Lincoln High School and Lincoln Elementary School. Tenant as been there since 2014, currently paying $1,096.39. In contract until 11/1/2025, then month to month.

19. 2026-03-03
    status Pending 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    * TENANT OCCUPIED * See this 3 Bedroom, 2 full bath home today. Walk in closet, nice size backyard, No Garage. Not Far from Lincoln High School and Lincoln Elementary School. Tenant as been there since 2014, currently paying $1,096.39. In contract until 11/1/2025, then month to month.

20. 2026-03-03
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    * TENANT OCCUPIED * See this 3 Bedroom, 2 full bath home today. Walk in closet, nice size backyard, No Garage. Not Far from Lincoln High School and Lincoln Elementary School. Tenant as been there since 2014, currently paying $1,096.39. In contract until 11/1/2025, then month to month.

21. 2026-01-20
    price $116,000 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    * TENANT OCCUPIED * See this 3 Bedroom, 2 full bath home today. Walk in closet, nice size backyard, No Garage. Not Far from Lincoln High School and Lincoln Elementary School. Tenant as been there since 2014, currently paying $1,096.39. In contract until 11/1/2025, then month to month.

22. 2026-01-20
    price $116,000 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    * TENANT OCCUPIED * See this 3 Bedroom, 2 full bath home today. Walk in closet, nice size backyard, No Garage. Not Far from Lincoln High School and Lincoln Elementary School. Tenant as been there since 2014, currently paying $1,096.39. In contract until 11/1/2025, then month to month.

23. 2026-01-20
    price $116,000

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    * TENANT OCCUPIED * See this 3 Bedroom, 2 full bath home today. Walk in closet, nice size backyard, No Garage. Not Far from Lincoln High School and Lincoln Elementary School. Tenant as been there since 2014, currently paying $1,096.39. In contract until 11/1/2025, then month to month.

24. 2025-10-13
    listed $120,000 Active 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    * TENANT OCCUPIED * See this 3 Bedroom, 2 full bath home today. Walk in closet, nice size backyard, No Garage. Not Far from Lincoln High School and Lincoln Elementary School. Tenant as been there since 2014, currently paying $1,096.39. In contract until 11/1/2025, then month to month.

25. 2025-10-13
    listed $120,000 Active 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    * TENANT OCCUPIED * See this 3 Bedroom, 2 full bath home today. Walk in closet, nice size backyard, No Garage. Not Far from Lincoln High School and Lincoln Elementary School. Tenant as been there since 2014, currently paying $1,096.39. In contract until 11/1/2025, then month to month.

26. 2025-10-13
    listed $120,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    * TENANT OCCUPIED * See this 3 Bedroom, 2 full bath home today. Walk in closet, nice size backyard, No Garage. Not Far from Lincoln High School and Lincoln Elementary School. Tenant as been there since 2014, currently paying $1,096.39. In contract until 11/1/2025, then month to month.

27. 2021-07-19
    soldstatus $1,018,582
28. 2021-05-10
    soldstatus $74,000
29. 2014-09-17
    soldstatus $800
30. 2014-09-03
    historical
31. 2014-08-21
    listed $800
32. 2011-03-31
    soldstatus $15,000
33. 2011-03-31
    soldstatus $15,000
34. 2011-03-18
    historical
35. 2010-08-11
    listed $24,900
36. 2010-08-11
    listed $24,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,335 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,335 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,498
• − Property taxes: −$2,335
• − Insurance: −$580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,332
• − Management: −$1,332
• − Depreciation: −$3,375
• Taxable income: $1,197
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$287
• After-tax cash flow: $2,650/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van Dyke Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634680
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,231
• Composite: 10.46/100
• National rank: #9784
• State rank: #512 of 540 in MI

Livability — Warren

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #4491

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warren, MI
• County: Macomb County · 638,552 people
• City population: 114,937
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 31,853
• Household income: $52,366
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1754.0

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 31% Asian 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.46%
• Current HPI: 154.8325
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+365.9% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-03-03 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-03 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-03 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $116,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $116,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $116,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-10-13 Listed $120,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-13 Listed $120,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-10-13 Listed $120,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $1,018,582 Public Records
• 2021-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 2014-09-17 Sold (MLS) $800 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-09-03 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-08-21 Listed $800 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-03-31 Sold (MLS) $15,000 REALCOMP
• 2011-03-31 Sold (MLS) $15,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-03-18 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-08-11 Listed $24,900 REALCOMP
• 2010-08-11 Listed $24,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,335 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.