1304 Kay Ave · Chipley, FL 32428

$125,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,371 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1971 0.27 ac lot $91/sqft · 11% below area Est $140k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brick home with great potential: a 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence on a corner, fenced lot inside the city limits. Currently a rental and in need of some TLC, this property offers solid bones and a chance to create instant equity for the right buyer--whether you're an investor or an owner-occupant ready to customize your next home. City utilities are in place with public water and sewer, simplifying maintenance and planning. Some photos are virtually staged.

Key facts

• City utilities
• Public sewer
• Fenced lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FENCED LOT
• CITY UTILITIES
• PUBLIC WATER
• PUBLIC SEWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.2% in Chipley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Washington (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #45 of 73 in FL (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 775 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $125k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.90%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $139,675
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -10.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1264 Plum Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,425 (+4%)	3mo	$292,000	$205	70
1275 Morris Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,250 (-9%)	7mo	$164,900	$132	63
576 Martin Luther King Dr	0.61mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,343 (-2%)	4mo	$160,000	$119	59
1331 Coggin Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,316 (-4%)	2mo	$180,000	$137	56
616 3rd St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-6%)	16mo	$210,000	$162	41
1311 Coggin Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,533 (+12%)	24mo	$195,000	$127	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-5,559
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $14,144
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32428

• Home prices YoY: -9.2%
• Active inventory: 775
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,388 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,903/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,096

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-04-15
    listed $125,000 Active 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Brick home with great potential: a 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence on a corner, fenced lot inside the city limits. Currently a rental and in need of some TLC, this property offers solid bones and a chance to create instant equity for the right buyer--whether you're an investor or an owner-occupant ready to customize your next home. City utilities are in place with public water and sewer, simplifying maintenance and planning. Some photos are virtually staged.

17. 2006-03-17
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,903 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,903 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,657
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,903
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,333
• − Management: −$1,333
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $825
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$198
• After-tax cash flow: $2,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washington
• NCES district ID: 1202010
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,948
• Composite: 41.12/100
• National rank: #3561
• State rank: #45 of 73 in FL

Livability — Chipley

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #11863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chipley, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,015

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,087 people
• By 2030: 23,600 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 22,643 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 21,524 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 18,432 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 13,298 · -44.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 13% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 17.0% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -47.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+57.1 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+47.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.96%
• Current HPI: 247.8492
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+92.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $125,000 CPARMLS
• 2006-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,903 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.