264 Hidden Lake Ln · Lake Hamilton, FL 33851

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 2018 10,001 sqft lot $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Move-in ready in Haines City near Lake Hamilton! Built in 2018, this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home at 264 Hidden Lake Ln offers comfort, efficiency, and a prime location along the rapidly growing US-27 corridor in Polk County. Featuring a 2-car garage, open floor plan, vaulted ceilings, and a desirable split-bedroom layout, this home is perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The bright kitchen showcases crisp white cabinetry, an accent backsplash, and stainless-steel appliances. The spacious primary suite offers a private en-suite bath with double sinks, a garden tub, separate shower, and a walk-in closet—creating a

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2018

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential — Single Family Residence; Zoning: R-1, R-2; Number of rooms: 6; Living area reported as 1,460 (public records); Building area reported as 1,876
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA (Hugh Bynum) with required fees; Annual association fee $400 (about $33.33/month); Community sidewalks and street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage with garage door opener; 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Facing west; Completed condition
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on 0.23-acre lot
• Exterior features: Patio; Sliding doors; Mature landscaping; Public maintained paved asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with washer and dryer hookups; Inside utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-146 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#591 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dundee Elementary Academy (math 51% / reading 56%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 653 students, 47% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 138 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,363 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.50%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $890
• Equity at exit: $91,191

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $42,669
• Equity at exit: $125,840

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33851

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,944 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,796/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,128

Max offer price $224,261

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4	-5% $-75	+0% $-146	+5% $-216	+10% $-287
Rent	-10% $-299	-5% $-222	+0% $-146	+5% $-69	+10% $8
Rate	-1.0pp $-20	-0.5pp $-82	base $-146	+0.5pp $-210	+1.0pp $-276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2912 poppy ave, Lake Hamilton, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,925	$1.37	25d	1	0.47mi
1007 N Tangerine St Haines City, FL	3.0	3.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	25d	1	0.54mi
304 Pearl St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1706	$1,999	$1.17	16d	1	0.57mi
308 Pearl St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1706	$1,999	$1.17	16d	1	0.58mi
401 Pearl St Lake Hamilton, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	5d	1	0.63mi
2240 Crown Rock Bluff Dr Lake Hamilton, FL	3.0	2.0	1486	$1,999	$1.35	15d	1	0.73mi
2405 Bluestone Rd Lake Hamilton, FL	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,900	$1.28	25d	1	0.80mi
2728 Lookout Ridge Rd Lake Hamilton, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,900	$1.01	25d	1	0.85mi
2744 Ginger Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,250	$1.32	5d	1	0.86mi
4058 Gardenia Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1615	$1,995	$1.24	25d	1	1.10mi
1712 Vanilla St Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1630	$2,000	$1.23	25d	1	1.12mi
1728 Vanilla St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,400	$1.30	25d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $250,000 Pending 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $250,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $250,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $250,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-05-14
   price $250,000
6. 2026-04-30
   price $260,000
7. 2026-04-16
   price $270,000
8. 2026-04-02
   price $279,000
9. 2026-03-24
   listed $285,000 Active
10. 2026-03-11
    soldstatus $277,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,796 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,796 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,324
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,796
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,866
• − Management: −$1,866
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$6,127
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,470
• After-tax cash flow: $-278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Hamilton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #591
• US rank: #11293

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Hamilton, FL
• City population: 1,109
• Population (ZIP): 1,109

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 29% Asian 20% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 16% Cuban 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 25% Arabic 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Current HPI: 388.4644
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $270,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $279,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Listed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $277,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+25.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,796 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.