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4400 Highway 431
C- Composite 54.67
Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +15.1/30.0
  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • Appreciation +5.1/10.0
  • DSCR +4.6/10.0
  • 1% rule +4.2/10.0
  • Schools +3.0/10.0
  • Livability +2.8/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • Condition / age +2.5/5.0

$132,900

4400 Highway 431 · Hollis Crossroads, AL 36264
2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,391 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 109 Days on market
Built 1950 3.00 ac lot $96/sqft · 13% below area Est $194k · 32% under

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Come bring your vision to this property in Heflin on 3 beautiful acres! New siding has been installed and some new windows. It is situated in Heflin Alabama 5 minutes to I-20 and 5 minutes to the heart of Heflin. There is a mobile home on the property that could be renovated and used for rental income or just storage. It has a separate graveled driveway. This is a fixer upper and sold AS-IS.

Key facts

  • New siding
  • 3 beautiful acres
  • New windows

Tags

3 BEAUTIFUL ACRESNEW SIDINGNEW WINDOWSSEPARATE GRAVELED DRIVEWAY

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 3.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $133k.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($511/yr) — positive.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (8.5% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $121k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 56/100 on livability (#406 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime D-.
  • Cleburne County (rural): math 20% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #42 of 129 in AL (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Cleburne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • In year one you build about $1k of equity ($919 loan paydown + $189 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
  • Cleburne County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
  • Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $120,939 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
  3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.92%
Cap rate
6.68%
Cash-on-cash
1.37%
DSCR
1.06
GRM
9.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$194,405
List price
$132,900
Delta
-31.64%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-0.1%
Equity multiple
0.99×
Total profit
$-266
Equity at exit
$39,536
10-year hold
IRR
5.3%
Equity multiple
1.59×
Total profit
$21,784
Equity at exit
$48,285

Cash invested: $37,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Alabama
90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

ZIP-level market 36264

Home prices YoY
0.1%
Active inventory
66
Price-to-rent
9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,217 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$697
Tax est. 1.5%
$166 /mo · $1,994/yr
Insurance
$55
HOA
$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$255
Net cashflow
$43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,163
Max offer price $132,900
Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $134 -5% $89 +0% $43 +5% $-3 +10% $-49
Rent -10% $-53 -5% $-5 +0% $43 +5% $91 +10% $139
Rate -1.0pp $110 -0.5pp $76 base $43 +0.5pp $8 +1.0pp $-27

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$33,225
Closing costs
$3,987
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Listing history 19 events

  1. 2026-06-19
    days on market $132,900 Active 109 DOM
  2. 2026-06-18
    days on market $132,900 Active 108 DOM
  3. 2026-06-17
    days on market $132,900 Active 107 DOM
  4. 2026-06-16
    days on market $132,900 Active 106 DOM
  5. 2026-06-15
    days on market $132,900 Active 105 DOM
  6. 2026-06-14
    days on market $132,900 Active 103 DOM
  7. 2026-06-13
    days on market $132,900 Active 102 DOM
  8. 2026-06-10
    days on market $132,900 Active 100 DOM
  9. 2026-06-09
    days on market $132,900 Active 99 DOM
  10. 2026-06-09
    remarks 451-char remark
  11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $132,900 Active 98 DOM
  12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $132,900 Active 97 DOM
  13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $132,900 Active 94 DOM
  14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $132,900 Active 93 DOM
  15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $132,900 Active 92 DOM
  16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $132,900 Active 91 DOM
  17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $132,900 Active 90 DOM
  18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $132,900 Active 89 DOM
  19. 2026-02-23
    listed $132,900 Active 394-char remark
    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Come bring your vision to this property in Heflin on 3 beautiful acres! New siding has been installed and some new windows. It is situated in Heflin Alabama 5 minutes to I-20 and 5 minutes to the heart of Heflin. There is a mobile home on the property that could be renovated and used for rental income or just storage. It has a separate graveled driveway. This is a fixer upper and sold AS-IS.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
  • 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$14,598
− Mortgage interest
−$7,444
− Property taxes
−$1,994
− Insurance
−$664
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,168
− Management
−$1,168
− Depreciation
−$3,866
Taxable loss
−$1,706
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$409
After-tax cash flow
$921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

District
Cleburne County
NCES district ID
0100780
Math proficiency
20% ▼ -29.00%
Reading proficiency
52% ▲ 4.00%
Median HH income
$37,491
Composite
29.85/100
National rank
#6411
State rank
#42 of 129 in AL

Livability — Hollis Crossroads

Score
56/100
State rank
#406
US rank
#22535

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Population (ZIP)
8,408

Population outlook (Cleburne County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
14,835 people
By 2030
14,605 · -1.6%
By 2040
14,023 · -5.5%
By 2050
13,301 · -10.3%
By 2075
11,624 · -21.6%
By 2100
9,912 · -33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (87%)
Race & ethnicity
White 87% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
Common ancestry
Italian 6% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
Foreign-born
2% · Canada
Languages at home
98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cleburne

2024 margin
Solid R (+83.6) · D 7.9% · R 91.5%
2008→2024 swing
-21.2pp toward R · 2008: -62.4pp · 2024: -83.6pp
All cycles
2024: R+83.6 2020: R+80.4 2016: R+77.4 2012: R+68.2 2008: R+62.4

Not yet ingested

Civics

Market trends

HPI YoY
▲ 0.14%
Current HPI
257.2736
Rent YoY
Metro
State GDP YoY
▲ 2.94%
F500 in state
4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry F500 HQs Revenue

Price history

1 event — show timeline
  • 2026-02-23 Listed $132,900 Greater Alabama MLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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