8235 Lobster Bay Ct · Jacksonville, FL 32256

$149,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 978 sqft · Other · 20 Days on market

Built 2007 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks

NO CARPET !! Completed updated unit with CUSTOM BATH , Glass Doors , Exotic Countertops Kitchen and Baths. Best option fully upgrades at the lowest pricing ! Hurry up ! It will sell fast !!!

Key facts

• Exotic countertops
• Custom bath
• Built 2007

Tags

• CUSTOM BATH
• EXOTIC COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $149k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greenfield Elementary School (math 51% / reading 44%, grade D, #1,182 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 592 students, 56% FRL); Southside Middle School (math 24% / reading 22%, grade F, #542 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 844 students, 57% FRL); Englewood High School (math 21% / reading 21%, grade F, #551 of 667 statewide, top 83%, 1,741 students, 58% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 520 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,765 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.24%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.58% appreciation · 0.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-5,255
• Equity at exit: $31,876

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $5,869
• Equity at exit: $30,100

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32256

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 520
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,578 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $320	-5% $269	+0% $217	+5% $166	+10% $114
Rent	-10% $92	-5% $155	+0% $217	+5% $279	+10% $342
Rate	-1.0pp $292	-0.5pp $255	base $217	+0.5pp $178	+1.0pp $139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5006 Key Lime Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1068	$1,335	$1.25	23d	2	0.07mi
5006 Key Lime Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1068	$1,335	$1.25	22d	2	0.07mi
8215 Green Parrot Rd #103 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	978	$1,429	$1.46	13d	1	0.12mi
4974 Key Lime Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	927	$1,650	$1.78	25d	1	0.15mi
8649 A C Skinner Pkwy Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$1,710	$1.56	3d	21	0.17mi
4931 Key Lime Dr #205 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	927	$1,350	$1.46	23d	1	0.18mi
8681 A C Skinner Pkwy Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1103	$1,744	$1.58	3d	22	0.18mi
8409 Zenith Cir Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1110	$1,695	$1.53	25d	1	0.30mi
8362 Retrograde Rd Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1009	$1,650	$1.64	18d	1	0.36mi
8362 Retrograde Rd Jacksonville, FL	2.0	3.0	1009	$1,650	$1.64	5d	1	0.36mi
8330 Zenith Cir Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1109	$1,650	$1.49	25d	1	0.38mi
8330 Zenith Cir Jacksonville, FL	2.0	3.0	1109	$1,650	$1.49	25d	1	0.38mi
8319 Zenith Cir Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1110	$1,700	$1.53	16d	1	0.39mi
8317 Asteroid St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1109	$1,650	$1.49	25d	1	0.40mi
8876 A C Skinner Pkwy Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0–3.0	1050	$2,048	$1.95	4d	35	0.40mi
8181 A C Skinner Pkwy Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0–3.0	1055	$2,641	$2.50	5d	40	0.59mi
7524 Southside Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,350	$1.74	18d	10	0.64mi
8450 Gate Pkwy W Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1194	$1,676	$1.40	5d	19	0.71mi
9734 Tapestry Park Cir Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1094	$1,762	$1.61	3d	41	0.72mi
8539 Gate Pkwy W Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,548	$1.56	15d	6	0.74mi
8539 Gate Pkwy W Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,597	$1.61	19d	7	0.74mi
8539 Gate Pkwy W Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,599	$1.61	16d	5	0.74mi
8539 Gate Pkwy W Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,548	$1.56	6d	4	0.74mi
7738 A C Skinner Pkwy Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	960	$2,187	$2.28	3d	13	0.77mi
4870 Deer Lake Dr E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$1,754	$1.84	3d	1	0.83mi
7595 Baymeadows Cir W Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,402	$1.37	3d	29	0.86mi
8451 Gate Pkwy W Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1107	$1,802	$1.63	12d	21	0.90mi
9803 Creekfront Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1084	$1,534	$1.41	4d	79	0.91mi
8290 Gate Pkwy W Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	946	$1,450	$1.53	3d	8	1.02mi
8290 Gate Pkwy W Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,600	$1.59	25d	5	1.02mi
7740 Southside Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1125	$1,541	$1.37	4d	9	1.07mi
10010 Skinner Lake Dr Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$1,574	$1.57	3d	14	1.14mi
7816 Southside Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1115	$2,182	$1.96	3d	1	1.15mi
10640 Satori Ln Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	933	$1,913	$2.05	6d	24	1.17mi
9825 Gate Pkwy N Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1281	$1,790	$1.40	3d	29	1.27mi
10000 Gate Pkwy N Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,550	$1.68	9d	1	1.28mi
7915 Baymeadows Cir E Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1142	$1,402	$1.23	3d	59	1.28mi
7932 Southside Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	925	$1,525	$1.65	25d	1	1.41mi
9800 Touchton Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1160	$1,662	$1.43	25d	1	1.45mi
5116 Gate Pkwy Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	952	$1,981	$2.08	4d	12	1.50mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $149,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    remarks 190-char remark
11. 2026-06-02
    listed $149,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,938
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,515
• − Management: −$1,515
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $247
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$59
• After-tax cash flow: $2,545/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This fully updated unit with custom features and hardwood floors is in excellent condition and ready for move-in.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and resale value.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and attracts more buyers.
• Both Installing smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value for both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and attracts more buyers. ↑
• Both Installing smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,192
• Household income: $73,570
• Rent vs Own: 61.3% rent · 38.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2706.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 18% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 6% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Current HPI: 216.5115
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.39%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+8664.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $149,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-10-12 Rental Removed $1,499 APPFOLIO
• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $1,499 APPFOLIO
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $1,500 APPFOLIO
• 2025-08-28 Listed for Rent $1,599 APPFOLIO
• 2025-07-20 Rental Removed $1,650 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-07-19 Listed for Rent $1,650 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-01-20 Rental Removed $1,600 BUILDIUM
• 2024-12-04 Price Changed $1,600 BUILDIUM
• 2024-11-03 Listed for Rent $1,700 BUILDIUM