21133 Oak Dr · Sunrise Shores, TX 75770

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1995 1.20 ac lot $100/sqft · 62% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the quiet countryside of LaRue, Texas, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and peaceful rural living. Situated on approximately 1.2 acres, the property provides plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors, whether you envision a garden, outdoor entertaining space, or simply relaxing while taking in the surrounding scenery. The home features 1,456 square feet of living space with a functional layout designed for everyday living. The spacious living area welcomes you with natural light and provides a comfortable gathering place for family and guests. The kitchen offers ample cabinet and counter space, making meal preparation convenient and enjoyable. The primary bedroom includes a private bathroom, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. The second full bathroom is easily accessible from the main living areas and bedrooms. Outside, the generous acreage offers privacy and endless possibilities, whether you’re looking for space for outdoor activities, small livestock, or future improvements. Enjoy the peaceful atmosphere of East Texas while still being within a convenient drive to nearby towns, shopping, dining, and local amenities.

Key facts

• Generous acreage
• Natural light
• Private bathroom

Tags

• APPROXIMATELY 1.2 ACRES
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING SPACE
• NATURAL LIGHT
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• GENEROUS ACREAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($489/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.1% in Sunrise Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,906 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.21%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $386,272
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -62.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20414 Hillside Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+8%)	10mo	$89,000	$57	61
20625 Pine Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,624 (+12%)	7mo	$115,000	$71	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $20,029
• Equity at exit: $65,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $67,634
• Equity at exit: $100,478

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75770

• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,209 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,123/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,157

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $123	-5% $82	+0% $41	+5% $0	+10% $-41
Rent	-10% $-55	-5% $-7	+0% $41	+5% $89	+10% $136
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $78	base $41	+0.5pp $3	+1.0pp $-35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $145,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,000 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-03-12
    listed $149,000 Active 1253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1253 chars)

    Nestled in the quiet countryside of LaRue, Texas, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and peaceful rural living. Situated on approximately 1.2 acres, the property provides plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors, whether you envision a garden, outdoor entertaining space, or simply relaxing while taking in the surrounding scenery. The home features 1,456 square feet of living space with a functional layout designed for everyday living. The spacious living area welcomes you with natural light and provides a comfortable gathering place for family and guests. The kitchen offers ample cabinet and counter space, making meal preparation convenient and enjoyable. The primary bedroom includes a private bathroom, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. The second full bathroom is easily accessible from the main living areas and bedrooms. Outside, the generous acreage offers privacy and endless possibilities, whether you’re looking for space for outdoor activities, small livestock, or future improvements. Enjoy the peaceful atmosphere of East Texas while still being within a convenient drive to nearby towns, shopping, dining, and local amenities.

17. 2026-03-12
    listed $149,000 Active 1253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1253 chars)

    Nestled in the quiet countryside of LaRue, Texas, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and peaceful rural living. Situated on approximately 1.2 acres, the property provides plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors, whether you envision a garden, outdoor entertaining space, or simply relaxing while taking in the surrounding scenery. The home features 1,456 square feet of living space with a functional layout designed for everyday living. The spacious living area welcomes you with natural light and provides a comfortable gathering place for family and guests. The kitchen offers ample cabinet and counter space, making meal preparation convenient and enjoyable. The primary bedroom includes a private bathroom, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. The second full bathroom is easily accessible from the main living areas and bedrooms. Outside, the generous acreage offers privacy and endless possibilities, whether you’re looking for space for outdoor activities, small livestock, or future improvements. Enjoy the peaceful atmosphere of East Texas while still being within a convenient drive to nearby towns, shopping, dining, and local amenities.

18. 2025-08-06
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,123 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,654 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,531/yr (+$128/mo · 136.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,509
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,123
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,161
• − Management: −$1,161
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$2,001
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$480
• After-tax cash flow: $970/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811640
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,624
• Composite: 37.38/100
• National rank: #4429
• State rank: #290 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sunrise Shores

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,736

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 16% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $149,000 GTAR
• 2026-03-12 Listed $149,000 LAAR
• 2025-08-06 Listed $150,000 GTAR

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,123 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.