164 Camp Fire Dr · California City, CA 93505

$99,990

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · Manufactured public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1969 5,662 sqft lot $152/sqft · 56% above area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming opportunity in the heart of California City! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home sits on its own land with no space rent or land lease, offering excellent value for homeowners or investors alike. This property includes a renovated kitchen, updated primary bedroom, and a spacious backyard with room to expand, garden, or create your ideal outdoor retreat. Conveniently located near main roads, local shopping, schools, and everyday amenities, this property offers affordable ownership with endless potential. Whether you're looking for a starter home, rental property, or weekend getaway, this is a great opportunity to own land in growing California City!

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Renovated kitchen
• Schools

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED PRIMARY BEDROOM
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• ROOM TO EXPAND
• LOCAL SHOPPING
• SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed by Keller Williams Realty A.V.

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; 220V electric; Natural gas
• Home design: Single-story; R1 zoning; Tract 3151
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Metal roof; Buyer to verify foundation
• Exterior features: RV access; Dirt streets

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air/evaporator
• Interior features: Family room; Central air

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $560 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 5.2% in California City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,329 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mojave Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #411 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($692 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $100k implies a 900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 4→9/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,990 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.99%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $64,006
• List price: $99,990
• Delta: 56.22%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
152 Camp Fire Dr	0.02mi	2/1.0	660 (0%)	12mo	$65,000	$98	89
351 Morning glory	0.14mi	2/1.5	696 (+6%)	14mo	$85,000	$122	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $93,758
• Equity at exit: $90,079

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.6%
• Equity multiple: 10.15×
• Total profit: $256,270
• Equity at exit: $194,259

Cash invested: $27,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93505

• Home prices YoY: 13.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,462 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $350/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $560

Break-even live

Break-even rent $753

Max offer price $99,990

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $616	-5% $588	+0% $560	+5% $531	+10% $503
Rent	-10% $444	-5% $502	+0% $560	+5% $617	+10% $675
Rate	-1.0pp $610	-0.5pp $585	base $560	+0.5pp $534	+1.0pp $507

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,998
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,990 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,990 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,990 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,990 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,990 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,990 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,990 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,990 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,990 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,990 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,990 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,990 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,990 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,990 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,990 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $99,990 Active 670-char remark
17. 2025-05-08
    historical
18. 2024-11-01
    listed $120,000 Active
19. 2006-07-25
    soldstatus $10,000
20. 1997-03-25
    soldstatus $11,000
21. 1993-05-07
    soldstatus $10,000
22. 1988-08-01
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $350 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $760 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$409/yr (+$34/mo · 116.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥101°F today · 9 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$350
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,403
• − Management: −$1,403
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $5,376
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,290
• After-tax cash flow: $5,426/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mojave Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,017
• Composite: 21.4/100
• National rank: #8350
• State rank: #411 of 517 in CA

Livability — California City

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1329
• US rank: #26753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California City, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 14,353
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 14,353
• Household income: $59,827
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 883.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 22% Two or more races 16% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.32%
• Current HPI: 402.4192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+566.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $99,990 AVMLS
• 2025-05-08 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-11-01 Listed $120,000 CRMLS
• 2006-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 1997-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records
• 1993-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 1988-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $350 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.