40 Hawkins Rd · Centereach, NY 11720

$495,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1974 0.34 ac lot $487/sqft · 23% below area Est $639k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to an incredible opportunity to own an affordable starter home without sacrificing space or comfort. This 3-bedroom, 2 full bath home offers the perfect entry into homeownership for buyers looking to stop renting and start building equity. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with comfortable living spaces and plenty of natural light, making it easy to settle in and make it your own. Whether you're just starting out or looking to downsize, this home offers the flexibility to fit your lifestyle. Step outside to a large backyard with endless potential—ideal for entertaining, outdoor gatherings, or creating your own private retreat. There’s room to grow, personaliz

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1974

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with parking for 4 vehicles; No carport
• Utilities: Electricity connected (PSEG); Water connected; Cesspool sewer; Cable available; Public trash collection
• Home design: Single family residence; Actual property condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Refrigerator; Eat-in, open layout
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on first floor
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; No central air
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Eat-in kitchen; Open kitchen; Washer/dryer hookup; Finished full basement; Dining area; Full attic
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry room in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $495k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-441 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $417k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $418k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $417k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.8% in Centereach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#362 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Middle Country Central School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #217 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hawkins Path School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B, #591 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 343 students, 42% FRL); Dawnwood Middle School (math 37% / reading 46%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 1,074 students, 37% FRL); Centereach High School (math 84% / reading 77%, grade A, #506 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 1,475 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 22% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($135k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($488k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $307k; list at $495k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $417,034 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.34%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $639,182
• List price: $495,000
• Delta: -22.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
266 Tree Rd	0.52mi	3/1.0	988 (-3%)	4mo	$540,000	$547	64
46 Bowdoin Rd	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,020 (+0%)	18mo	$530,000	$520	63
34 W Court Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,130 (+11%)	3mo	$630,000	$558	61
43 W Court Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+6%)	11mo	$579,000	$536	60
30 Milburn Rd	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,168 (+15%)	11mo	$600,000	$514	35
37 Morning Dr	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-15%)	17mo	$515,000	$596	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-108,060
• Equity at exit: $73,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-129,234
• Equity at exit: $42,799

Cash invested: $138,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11720

• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,178 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax from tax record: −$885 /mo · $10,616/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$877
• Net cashflow: $-441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,737

Max offer price $417,034

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-161	-5% $-301	+0% $-441	+5% $-581	+10% $-722
Rent	-10% $-771	-5% $-606	+0% $-441	+5% $-276	+10% $-111
Rate	-1.0pp $-192	-0.5pp $-315	base $-441	+0.5pp $-570	+1.0pp $-700

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,750
• Closing costs: $14,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Spruce St Centereach, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$2,700	$3.38	0d	1	0.82mi
64 Neal Path Centereach, NY	1.0–3.0	2.0	1252	$4,270	$3.41	0d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $495,000 Pending 23 DOM
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $495,000 Active 922-char remark
3. 2026-05-04
   historical $495,000 922-char remark
4. 2024-06-07
   historical
5. 2024-06-01
   status Active
6. 2024-01-18
   price $499,999
7. 2023-12-22
   listed $525,000 Active
8. 2019-04-03
   historical
9. 2018-04-02
   listed $210,000 New
10. 2008-06-05
    soldstatus $307,400
11. 2003-06-27
    soldstatus $251,000
12. 1999-05-14
    soldstatus $103,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,616 · $885/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,616 · $885/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,142
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,728
• − Property taxes: −$10,616
• − Insurance: −$3,142
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,011
• − Management: −$4,011
• − Depreciation: −$14,400
• Taxable loss: −$13,767
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,304
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,992/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middle Country Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619200
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $86,140
• Composite: 52.89/100
• National rank: #1532
• State rank: #217 of 590 in NY

Livability — Centereach

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #6174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centereach, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 29,292
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,292
• Household income: $134,898
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 436.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 15% Asian 7% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -633.07%
• Current HPI: 347.7369
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+378.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Coming Soon $495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-07 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-01 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-18 Price Changed $499,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-22 Listed $525,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-02 Listed $210,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $307,400 Public Records
• 2003-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $251,000 Public Records
• 1999-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $103,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,616 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.