1208 W Church St · Urbana, IL 61801

$99,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,425 sqft · Other · 21 Days on market

Built 1899 8,712 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• 5 garage spots
• Built 1899

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $532 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 3.6% in Urbana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#110 in IL, #1,793 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Urbana SD 116 (urban): math 11% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #568 of 620 in IL (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wiley Elementary School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #1,741 of 2,056 statewide, top 93%, 234 students, 0% FRL); Urbana Middle School (math 6% / reading 6%, grade F, #634 of 665 statewide, top 95%, 903 students, 0% FRL); Urbana High School (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #247 of 693 statewide, top 36%, 1,220 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 64% district-wide (64 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 63 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 573 units permitted in Champaign County in 2024 (359 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,530/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($36k/yr) (locally 2719% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Champaign County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1899 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $97,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1899 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.03%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $20,046
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $70,386
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61801

• Home prices YoY: -27.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,530 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,391/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $532

Break-even live

Break-even rent $856

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $588	-5% $560	+0% $532	+5% $504	+10% $476
Rent	-10% $411	-5% $472	+0% $532	+5% $592	+10% $653
Rate	-1.0pp $582	-0.5pp $557	base $532	+0.5pp $506	+1.0pp $480

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1202 N Lincoln Ave Urbana, IL	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,395	$1.21	22d	1	0.41mi
207 S 5th St Champaign, IL	4.0	2.0	957	$659	$0.69	45d	1	0.49mi
1003 N 5th St Champaign, IL	4.0	1.0	1395	$1,715	$1.23	15d	1	0.60mi
520 N Neil St Champaign, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,750	$2.10	14d	2	0.98mi
217 S Neil St Champaign, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	816	$1,795	$2.20	14d	4	1.04mi
810 S Oak St Unit 13 Champaign, IL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	22d	1	1.13mi
200 S Vine St Unit 128 Urbana, IL	2.0	2.5	1292	$1,795	$1.39	22d	1	1.19mi
309 N Prairie St Unit 309 Champaign, IL	2.0	1.0	1208	$1,650	$1.37	15d	1	1.25mi
501 S Elm St Unit 1E Champaign, IL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,135	$1.14	45d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,391 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,819 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$428/yr (+$36/mo · 30.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,355
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,391
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,468
• − Management: −$1,468
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $5,107
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,226
• After-tax cash flow: $5,159/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Urbana SD 116
• NCES district ID: 1739960
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 13% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,678
• Composite: 9.72/100
• National rank: #9830
• State rank: #568 of 620 in IL

Livability — Urbana

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #1793

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Urbana, IL
• County: Champaign County · 182,148 people
• City population: 48,184
• Metro: Champaign-Urbana, IL
• Population (ZIP): 27,891
• Household income: $36,180
• Rent vs Own: 66.7% rent · 33.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2719.0

Population outlook (Champaign County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,848 people
• By 2030: 231,416 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 244,321 · +9.1%
• By 2050: 256,432 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 285,823 · +27.7%
• By 2100: 296,406 · +32.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Asian 17% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · China, Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Chinese 8% Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Champaign

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.1) · D 61.3% · R 37.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.1 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+18.4 2012: D+6.8 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.21%
• Current HPI: 220.7438
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.40%
• Metro: Champaign-Urbana, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,391 · -41.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.