4451 Rhine Dr · Black Jack, MO 63033

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,421 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1966 8,001 sqft lot Est $217k · 24% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Inviting one-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage with a comfortable and functional layout. The living area offers a welcoming space for relaxing or entertaining, while the kitchen has been updated with freshly painted cabinets, new countertops, sink, faucet, backsplash, and new flooring. The interior has been freshly painted throughout, creating a clean and refreshed feel. The primary suite provides a private retreat with its own bathroom, while additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Enjoy a spacious backyard with plenty of room for outdoor activities and entertaining. One or more photos have been virtually staged to illustr

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• New flooring
• New countertops

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• FRESHLY PAINTED CABINETS
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• NEW FLOORING
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA with an annual fee of $120 covering common area maintenance; HOA provides other amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electric service: Other
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Full basement
• Exterior features: Subdivided lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 6.2% in Black Jack — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Barrington Elem. (math 9% / reading 28%, grade F, #960 of 1,115 statewide, top 86%, 393 students, 53% FRL); Central Middle (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #348 of 391 statewide, top 89%, 707 students, 68% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $115k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.19%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,413
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4451 Rhine Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,421 (0%)	0mo	$165,000	$116	100
11962 Nero Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+1%)	1mo	$220,000	$153	83
4443 Remus Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,354 (-5%)	3mo	$224,900	$166	80
4394 Satiris Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,301 (-8%)	1mo	$235,000	$181	78
4461 Rhine Dr	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,607 (+13%)	5mo	$150,000	$93	71
11678 Galba Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-9%)	2mo	$129,900	$101	70
11636 Macrinus Dr	0.18mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,525 (+7%)	1mo	$229,900	$151	70
4333 Caracalla Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,271 (-11%)	3mo	$225,000	$177	68
11565 Mehl Ave	0.08mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,270 (-11%)	4mo	$81,000	$64	68
2325 Grassland Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,525 (+7%)	2mo	$239,000	$157	58
29 Brixworth Ct	0.62mi	3/3.0	1,280 (-10%)	4mo	$220,000	$172	47
19 Bridekirk Ct	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,624 (+14%)	1mo	$220,000	$135	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $110,766
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.27×
• Total profit: $336,068
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,718 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,561/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,465

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $293	-5% $246	+0% $200	+5% $153	+10% $106
Rent	-10% $64	-5% $132	+0% $200	+5% $268	+10% $335
Rate	-1.0pp $283	-0.5pp $242	base $200	+0.5pp $157	+1.0pp $113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	19d	1	0.35mi
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	3d	1	0.44mi
2745 Rottingdean Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$975	$1.18	45d	1	0.56mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,180	$0.96	0d	18	0.78mi
2544 Netherton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,945	$1.51	0d	1	0.90mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	25d	1	1.14mi
1670 Arundel Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,450	$1.43	25d	1	1.26mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1561	$2,100	$1.35	0d	1	1.30mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,776	$1.18	45d	1	1.30mi
1536 Springlet Ct #31 Florissant, MO	3.0	2.5	1161	$1,450	$1.25	0d	1	1.33mi
1536 Springlet Ct #31 Florissant, MO	3.0	2.5	1161	$1,450	$1.25	9d	1	1.33mi
1502 Summer Run Dr #108 Florissant, MO	2.0	1.5	922	$1,200	$1.30	25d	1	1.38mi
62 Capitol Hill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,250	$1.01	45d	1	1.50mi
3582 Pershall Rd Unit 3631 Ferguson, MO	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,295	$0.86	45d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   price $165,000
3. 2026-04-10
   price $169,900
4. 2026-03-20
   listed $179,900 Active
5. 2020-12-09
   soldstatus
6. 2007-02-14
   soldstatus $115,000
7. 2003-09-16
   soldstatus $114,210
8. 1983-06-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,561 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,561 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,615
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,561
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,649
• − Management: −$1,649
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$233
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$56
• After-tax cash flow: $2,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 69,104
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+44.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $165,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $169,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $179,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2003-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $114,210 Public Records
• 1983-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,561 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.