415 W 2nd St · Aberdeen, WA 98520

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,879 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 136 Days on market

Built 1900 6,500 sqft lot $133/sqft · 38% above area Est $284k · 12% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a wonderful home located in a well-established neighborhood, featuring a spacious kitchen complete with an eating area, and a formal dining room conveniently adjacent to the kitchen. The comfortable living room offers a welcoming atmosphere, while the entryway provides a pleasant first impression. There is one bedroom on the main floor could have many uses TV/guest room and two additional bedrooms upstairs with walk-in closets abother smaller room perhps a office or nursery. Home also offers a ¾ bath available on both levels for added convenience. Home has hardwood floors under carpet. The basement provides plenty of storage space, and the large, detached garage includes a w

Key facts

• Entryway
• Formal dining room
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• COMFORTABLE LIVING ROOM
• ENTRYWAY
• OFFICE OR SEWING ROOM
• ¾ BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.1% in Aberdeen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#73 in WA, #1,320 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D-, employment F.
• Aberdeen School District (town): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #222 of 291 in WA (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcdermoth Elementary (287 students, 71% FRL); Miller Junior High (718 students, 68% FRL); J M Weatherwax High School (916 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 266 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $192,689 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.47%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,007
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -11.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
602 W 2nd St	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,882 (+0%)	3mo	$250,000	$133	88
1309 W 5th St	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,870 (-0%)	9mo	$355,000	$190	71
1519 Pacific Ave	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,816 (-3%)	1mo	$262,500	$145	69
1314 W Market St	0.50mi	3/3.0	1,828 (-3%)	4mo	$325,000	$178	65
709 W 2nd St	0.20mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,992 (+6%)	8mo	$245,000	$123	65
202 W 8th St	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,950 (+4%)	8mo	$425,000	$218	64
904 W 2nd St	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,050 (+9%)	2mo	$300,000	$146	63
1520 W Market St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,863 (-1%)	4mo	$187,500	$101	63
526 W 6th St	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,940 (+3%)	8mo	$329,000	$170	58
918 Arnold St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,838 (-2%)	8mo	$298,000	$162	58
424 Mckinley Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,984 (+6%)	5mo	$410,000	$207	56
1700 W 6th St	0.66mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,948 (+4%)	4mo	$240,000	$123	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-43,350
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-33,756
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98520

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 266
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,927 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,311/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,035

Max offer price $234,892

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $56	-5% $-15	+0% $-86	+5% $-156	+10% $-227
Rent	-10% $-238	-5% $-162	+0% $-86	+5% $-9	+10% $67
Rate	-1.0pp $40	-0.5pp $-22	base $-86	+0.5pp $-150	+1.0pp $-216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1619 W 6th St Aberdeen, WA	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,295	$1.31	45d	1	0.62mi
908 E 1st St Aberdeen, WA	3.0	1.0	1608	$2,100	$1.31	45d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $250,000 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $250,000 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $260,000 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $260,000 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $260,000 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,000 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,000 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $260,000 Active 114 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    price $260,000
18. 2026-02-05
    listed $265,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,311 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,450 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$139/yr (+$12/mo · 6.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥77°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,123
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,311
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,850
• − Management: −$1,850
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,414
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,299
• After-tax cash flow: $273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aberdeen School District
• NCES district ID: 5300030
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,896
• Composite: 36.13/100
• National rank: #9477
• State rank: #222 of 291 in WA

Livability — Aberdeen

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #1320

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aberdeen, WA
• County: Grays Harbor County · 44,693 people
• City population: 24,888
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• Population (ZIP): 24,888
• Household income: $58,153
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 635.0

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Native American 3% Asian 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.75%
• Current HPI: 207.7393
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.35%
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $260,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Listed $265,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,311 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.