518 Upstate Ave S · Lehigh Acres, FL 33974

$292,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,285 sqft · SingleFamily · 100 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $297k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0

Listing remarks

As one of Southwest Florida's most affordable real estate markets, Lehigh Acres is home to national and local businesses, championship golf courses, minutes from the Boston Red Sox spring training home at JetBlue Park, 12 miles from historic downtown Fort Myers and close to Gulf of Mexico beaches. DRE# 175519667

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 100 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 518 Upstate Ave S, Lehigh Acres, FL 33974; Listing last modified May 21, 2026
• Financial info: List price $292,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family property
• Exterior features: Living area of 1285

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home — Santa Maria plan; Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $293k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-411 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (20.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (30.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Veterans Park Academy For The Arts (math 41% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 2,133 students, 36% FRL); Oak Hammock Middle School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 1,563 students, 56% FRL); Lehigh Senior High School (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 2,476 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 2476 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,259 (30.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.01%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $296,835
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
719 Theodore Vail St E	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,283 (-0%)	5mo	$250,000	$195	82
512 Genesee Ave S	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+1%)	9mo	$299,900	$231	77
510 Frank Jewett Ave S	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+3%)	12mo	$315,000	$238	74
735 Manhattan St E	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,263 (-2%)	22mo	$291,000	$230	66
867 Chipley St E	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,222 (-5%)	3mo	$291,000	$238	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $127,429
• Equity at exit: $263,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.70×
• Total profit: $385,193
• Equity at exit: $569,215

Cash invested: $82,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33974

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Rents YoY: -4.7%
• Active inventory: 2476
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,043 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,536
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$366 /mo · $4,395/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-411

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,563

Max offer price $233,497

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-209	-5% $-310	+0% $-411	+5% $-512	+10% $-614
Rent	-10% $-573	-5% $-492	+0% $-411	+5% $-330	+10% $-250
Rate	-1.0pp $-264	-0.5pp $-337	base $-411	+0.5pp $-487	+1.0pp $-564

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,248
• Closing costs: $8,790
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
573 Bell Blvd S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,900	$1.56	16d	1	0.12mi
508 Bell Blvd S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	25d	1	0.25mi
604 Thomas Sherwin Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1493	$2,200	$1.47	5d	1	0.35mi
720 Chavers St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1547	$2,200	$1.42	25d	1	0.44mi
541 Chalet Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	1650	$2,400	$1.45	25d	1	0.47mi
455 Bell Blvd Unit 1 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1142	$1,600	$1.40	25d	1	0.47mi
684 Thomas Sherwin Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,695	$1.32	5d	1	0.54mi
459 Lockport Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,000	$1.21	25d	1	0.60mi
406 Chalet Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	25d	1	0.62mi
404 Chalet Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	25d	1	0.63mi
541 Hawthorne Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,921	$1.18	5d	1	0.64mi
546 Whispering Wind Bnd Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1437	$1,950	$1.36	3d	1	0.66mi
567 Charwood Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$1,900	$1.21	16d	1	0.67mi
825 Carbon St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,300	$1.45	25d	1	0.71mi
388 Bell Blvd S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,780	$1.48	25d	1	0.74mi
886 Milwaukee Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,900	$1.58	25d	1	0.75mi
515 Croydon Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	3.0	1253	$2,200	$1.76	5d	1	0.81mi
750 Cane St E Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	1537	$2,800	$1.82	5d	1	0.82mi
713 Cardinal St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,635	$1.49	5d	1	0.83mi
874 Apartment St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,750	$1.46	25d	1	0.84mi
759 Cane St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1169	$1,950	$1.67	5d	1	0.85mi
635 Hawthorne Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1029	$1,300	$1.26	23d	1	0.86mi
635 Hawthorne Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1029	$1,300	$1.26	25d	1	0.86mi
606 Morningmist Ln Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.5	1817	$2,295	$1.26	5d	1	0.86mi
397 Carrillon Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	5d	1	0.87mi
350 Limerick Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1199	$1,800	$1.50	5d	1	0.88mi
598 Aston Lake Ct Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1703	$2,395	$1.41	23d	1	0.88mi
346 Bell Blvd S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,495	$1.26	5d	1	0.89mi
346 Bell Blvd S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,495	$1.26	16d	1	0.89mi
382 McArthur Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1055	$2,200	$2.09	25d	1	0.89mi
727 Cane St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,000	$1.26	25d	1	0.89mi
510 Caywood Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,664	$1.68	25d	1	0.91mi
940 Sterling St E Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1389	$1,750	$1.26	5d	1	0.97mi
333 Bell Blvd S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,300	$1.17	5d	1	0.97mi
928 Milwaukee Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1719	$1,990	$1.16	25d	1	0.98mi
908 Winters St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,200	$1.34	12d	1	0.99mi
374 Compese Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,750	$1.46	17d	1	1.01mi
715 Bering Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1835	$1,895	$1.03	23d	1	1.06mi
708 Godwid Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1758	$2,150	$1.22	23d	1	1.06mi
862 Charles Sise St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,664	$1.68	25d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $292,990 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $292,990 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $292,990 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $292,990 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $292,990 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $292,990 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $292,990 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $292,990 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $292,990 Active 79 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,412
• − Property taxes: −$4,395
• − Insurance: −$1,465
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,961
• − Management: −$1,961
• − Depreciation: −$8,523
• Taxable loss: −$10,206
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,449
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,484/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lehigh Acres

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #826
• US rank: #20055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lehigh Acres, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 130,638
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,927
• Household income: $72,192
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 434.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% Two or more races 31% White 26% Black 18%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 20% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 7% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 43% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.53%
• Current HPI: 303.3399
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.68%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B