5227 W Bent Tree Dr · Phoenix, AZ 85083

$630,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,153 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 2009 7,248 sqft lot $200/sqft · 7% below area Est $681k · 7% under $108/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NOVEMBER MOVE IN! 3,153 SQ FT WITH 4 LARGE BEDROOMS AND HUGE GAME ROOM FOR GROWING FAMILY. GRANITE, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES WITH REFRIGERATOR AND UPGRADES THROUGHOUT. PROFESSIONALLY DESIGNED WITH UPGRADED FLOORING.

Key facts

• Central fireplace
• Double closets
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ACCENT BACKSPLASH
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• CENTRAL FIREPLACE
• DOUBLE CLOSETS
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 7,248 (source: assessor)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $325 quarterly fee; Association covers grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 3 vehicles; 3-car garage
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior
• Exterior features: Desert landscaping in back; Gravel/stone in front and back yards; Synthetic grass in back yard; Block fencing; Tile roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Has heating; Has cooling; Cooling: Other
• Interior features: Full bathroom in primary bedroom; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $630k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $373k (40.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $326k (48.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $326k (48.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Inspiration Mountain School (486 students, 10% FRL); Hillcrest Middle School (math 49% / reading 60%, grade B-, #15 of 218 statewide, top 7%, 899 students, 14% FRL); Sandra Day O'Connor High School (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #58 of 381 statewide, top 15%, 2,567 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $67k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $63k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$108k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($611k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $326,123 (48.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.89%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 16.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $680,943
• List price: $630,000
• Delta: -7.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5208 W Straight Arrow Ln	0.05mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,153 (0%)	5mo	$633,000	$201	85
27321 N 51st Gln	0.19mi	4/3.5	2,826 (-10%)	1mo	$699,990	$248	71
5528 W Mine Trl	0.35mi	4/3.0	3,036 (-4%)	7mo	$685,000	$226	67
5437 W Red Bird Rd	0.39mi	4/2.5	3,077 (-2%)	9mo	$700,000	$227	64
5412 W Red Bird Rd	0.32mi	4/3.0	3,422 (+8%)	9mo	$650,000	$190	59
5111 W Cavedale Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0	3,422 (+8%)	1mo	$730,000	$213	58
5519 W Big Oak St	0.36mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,036 (-4%)	14mo	$765,000	$252	56
5148 W Quail Track Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,780 (-12%)	2mo	$750,000	$270	56
5137 W Quail Track Dr	0.27mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,911 (-8%)	14mo	$700,000	$240	56
26409 N 49th Ln	0.67mi	4/3.5	3,296 (+4%)	9mo	$1,025,000	$311	52
5815 W Straight Arrow Ln	0.72mi	4/3.0	3,036 (-4%)	6mo	$892,000	$294	52
5510 W Tether Trl	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,745 (-13%)	1mo	$566,000	$206	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $248,068
• Equity at exit: $567,554

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.53×
• Total profit: $798,469
• Equity at exit: $1,223,951

Cash invested: $176,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85083

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 16.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,261 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,304
• Tax from tax record: −$356 /mo · $4,269/yr
• Insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$685
• Net cashflow: $-1,454

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,101

Max offer price $373,209

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,097	-5% $-1,275	+0% $-1,454	+5% $-1,632	+10% $-1,810
Rent	-10% $-1,711	-5% $-1,582	+0% $-1,454	+5% $-1,325	+10% $-1,196
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,136	-0.5pp $-1,293	base $-1,454	+0.5pp $-1,617	+1.0pp $-1,783

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $157,500
• Closing costs: $18,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5224 W Bent Tree Dr Phoenix, AZ	5.0	4.0	3638	$3,300	$0.91	20d	1	0.03mi
5432 W Fetlock Trl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2103	$2,900	$1.38	14d	1	0.26mi
27424 N 54th Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2104	$2,885	$1.37	3d	1	0.27mi
27105 N 52nd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2314	$2,499	$1.08	18d	1	0.29mi
27015 N 52nd Gln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2314	$2,795	$1.21	20d	1	0.33mi
5118 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2128	$2,450	$1.15	9d	1	0.40mi
5433 W Red Bird Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	2745	$3,300	$1.20	25d	1	0.42mi
5235 W Blaylock Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	2128	$2,850	$1.34	25d	1	0.48mi
5411 W Rowel Rd Phoenix, AZ	5.0	3.0	3422	$3,099	$0.91	0d	1	0.71mi
5826 W Plum Rd Phoenix, AZ	5.0	4.0	3987	$4,500	$1.13	45d	1	0.80mi
27807 N 59th Dr Phoenix, AZ	5.0	3.0	2983	$2,999	$1.01	0d	1	0.88mi
6017 W Running Deer Trl Phoenix, AZ	5.0	3.0	2563	$2,750	$1.07	4d	1	1.04mi
26041 N Fernbush Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	2901	$3,599	$1.24	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $630,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $630,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $630,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $630,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $630,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $630,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $630,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $630,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $630,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $630,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $630,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $640,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $640,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $640,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $640,000 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    listed $640,000 Active 518-char remark
17. 2026-04-28
    soldstatus $640,000
18. 2025-08-21
    historical $2,999
19. 2025-08-10
    price $2,999
20. 2025-08-02
    price $3,199
21. 2025-07-12
    price $3,250
22. 2025-06-19
    price $3,450
23. 2025-05-05
    listed $3,550
24. 2024-06-12
    historical $3,250
25. 2024-06-08
    listed $3,250
26. 2017-07-25
    historical
27. 2017-06-14
    price $390,000
28. 2017-05-26
    listed $399,000 Active
29. 2011-02-08
    soldstatus $305,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    NOVEMBER MOVE IN! 3,153 SQ FT WITH 4 LARGE BEDROOMS AND HUGE GAME ROOM FOR GROWING FAMILY. GRANITE, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES WITH REFRIGERATOR AND UPGRADES THROUGHOUT. PROFESSIONALLY DESIGNED WITH UPGRADED FLOORING.

30. 2010-11-15
    price $305,000 Pending

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    NOVEMBER MOVE IN! 3,153 SQ FT WITH 4 LARGE BEDROOMS AND HUGE GAME ROOM FOR GROWING FAMILY. GRANITE, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES WITH REFRIGERATOR AND UPGRADES THROUGHOUT. PROFESSIONALLY DESIGNED WITH UPGRADED FLOORING.

31. 2010-11-15
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    NOVEMBER MOVE IN! 3,153 SQ FT WITH 4 LARGE BEDROOMS AND HUGE GAME ROOM FOR GROWING FAMILY. GRANITE, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES WITH REFRIGERATOR AND UPGRADES THROUGHOUT. PROFESSIONALLY DESIGNED WITH UPGRADED FLOORING.

32. 2010-09-02
    price $319,990

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    NOVEMBER MOVE IN! 3,153 SQ FT WITH 4 LARGE BEDROOMS AND HUGE GAME ROOM FOR GROWING FAMILY. GRANITE, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES WITH REFRIGERATOR AND UPGRADES THROUGHOUT. PROFESSIONALLY DESIGNED WITH UPGRADED FLOORING.

33. 2010-05-28
    price $321,000

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    NOVEMBER MOVE IN! 3,153 SQ FT WITH 4 LARGE BEDROOMS AND HUGE GAME ROOM FOR GROWING FAMILY. GRANITE, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES WITH REFRIGERATOR AND UPGRADES THROUGHOUT. PROFESSIONALLY DESIGNED WITH UPGRADED FLOORING.

34. 2010-05-04
    price $331,000

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    NOVEMBER MOVE IN! 3,153 SQ FT WITH 4 LARGE BEDROOMS AND HUGE GAME ROOM FOR GROWING FAMILY. GRANITE, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES WITH REFRIGERATOR AND UPGRADES THROUGHOUT. PROFESSIONALLY DESIGNED WITH UPGRADED FLOORING.

35. 2010-04-20
    price $331,650

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    NOVEMBER MOVE IN! 3,153 SQ FT WITH 4 LARGE BEDROOMS AND HUGE GAME ROOM FOR GROWING FAMILY. GRANITE, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES WITH REFRIGERATOR AND UPGRADES THROUGHOUT. PROFESSIONALLY DESIGNED WITH UPGRADED FLOORING.

36. 2009-09-23
    listed $330,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    NOVEMBER MOVE IN! 3,153 SQ FT WITH 4 LARGE BEDROOMS AND HUGE GAME ROOM FOR GROWING FAMILY. GRANITE, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES WITH REFRIGERATOR AND UPGRADES THROUGHOUT. PROFESSIONALLY DESIGNED WITH UPGRADED FLOORING.

37. 2008-02-20
    soldstatus $8,569,509

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,269 · $356/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,269 · $356/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,290
• − Property taxes: −$4,269
• − Insurance: −$3,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,131
• − Management: −$3,131
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$18,327
• Taxable loss: −$29,459
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,070
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,374/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 21,022
• Household income: $149,087
• Rent vs Own: 10.5% rent · 89.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 81.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.78%
• Current HPI: 289.2128
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-92.6% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $630,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $640,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $640,000 Public Records
• 2025-08-21 Rental Removed $2,999 ARMLS
• 2025-08-10 Price Changed $2,999 ARMLS
• 2025-08-02 Price Changed $3,199 ARMLS
• 2025-07-12 Price Changed $3,250 ARMLS
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $3,450 ARMLS
• 2025-05-05 Listed for Rent $3,550 ARMLS
• 2024-06-12 Rental Removed $3,250 ARMLS
• 2024-06-08 Listed for Rent $3,250 ARMLS
• 2017-07-25 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2017-06-14 Price Changed $390,000 ARMLS
• 2017-05-26 Listed $399,000 ARMLS
• 2011-02-08 Sold (MLS) $305,000 ARMLS
• 2010-11-15 Pending — ARMLS
• 2010-11-15 Price Changed $305,000 ARMLS
• 2010-09-02 Price Changed $319,990 ARMLS
• 2010-05-28 Price Changed $321,000 ARMLS
• 2010-05-04 Price Changed $331,000 ARMLS
• 2010-04-20 Price Changed $331,650 ARMLS
• 2009-09-23 Listed $330,000 ARMLS
• 2008-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $8,569,509 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,269 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.