14000 El Evado Rd #43 · Victorville, CA 92392

$95,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,323 sqft · Manufactured public records · 183 Days on market

Built 1993 4,000 sqft lot Est $83k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +1.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Super cute, roomy and ready to move in home! Has 2 bedrooms, dining area, living room and family room . The refrigerator and all window coverings stay. The seller just replaced the roof and all the wood trim/skirt around the home. Hurry and get this home. .. it wont be here long! Please note this is in a 55 & Up Community and we must have park approval before any offer can be accepted.

Key facts

• Laundry room
• Carport
• Storage shed

Tags

• TWO PANTRIES
• DEDICATED DINING AREA
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• AMPLE STORAGE
• CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Manager approval required for tenancy; Pets: contact manager; Fridge, washer and dryer are excluded from sale
• HOA & community: Land lease community — $950 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Parking available in Seasons Community
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/Public water
• Home design: Single-story/mobile home (14' x 56'); Mobile home remains on site; Located in a senior community
• Construction: Year built per assessor; Assessor-recorded living area
• Exterior features: Association pool; Suburban community

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: One-level home; Side entry
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry (washer/dryer excluded)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.6% vs local median 4.2% in Victorville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#906 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Victor Elementary (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #408 of 517 in CA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 369 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $95k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 1→3/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.08%
• DSCR: 3.27
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $83,349
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14000 El Evado Rd #12	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-2%)	12mo	$102,000	$79	82
14000 El Evado Rd #100	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+9%)	10mo	$114,900	$80	77
14000 El Evado Rd #77	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-13%)	4mo	$65,000	$56	75
14000 El Evado Rd #87	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-6%)	20mo	$70,000	$56	74
14000 El Evado Rd #44	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-6%)	20mo	$45,000	$36	74
14000 El Evado Rd #70	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,427 (+8%)	13mo	$129,900	$91	71
14000 El Evado Rd #65	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,449 (+10%)	10mo	$125,000	$86	70
14000 El Evado Rd #17	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,218 (-8%)	22mo	$77,000	$63	69
14000 El Evado Rd #30	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-6%)	23mo	$65,999	$53	66
14411 Palmdale Rd #56	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-6%)	23mo	$47,000	$38	66
14000 El Evado Rd #96	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-13%)	22mo	$40,000	$35	60
14580 Gravilla	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-6%)	7mo	$326,000	$261	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $53,890
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $128,485
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92392

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 369
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,156 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $404/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $1,132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $723

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14450 El Evado Rd Victorville, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,615	$1.80	1d	3	0.40mi
14485 Seneca Rd Victorville, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1123	$2,345	$2.09	1d	6	0.62mi
13730 San Martin Rd Unit B Victorville, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	23d	1	0.70mi
14440 Stivers Rd Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	994	$1,950	$1.96	10d	1	0.83mi
14610 Green River Rd Victorville, CA	3.0	2.5	1493	$2,595	$1.74	1d	1	0.84mi
14374 Borego Rd Victorville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	842	$2,080	$2.47	1d	12	0.95mi
14344 Mcart Rd Victorville, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1042	$1,899	$1.82	1d	5	0.95mi
13489 Monterey Way Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	927	$2,195	$2.37	1d	1	1.12mi
15230 Seneca Rd Victorville, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	805	$1,850	$2.30	1d	12	1.15mi
14861 Ann Dr Victorville, CA	3.0	3.0	1657	$2,395	$1.45	1d	1	1.18mi
14304 Gray Fox Ln Victorville, CA	3.0	2.5	1795	$2,600	$1.45	15d	1	1.28mi
14979 Buckskin Rd Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1277	$2,250	$1.76	1d	1	1.33mi
13755 Hanford Ct Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1867	$2,397	$1.28	1d	1	1.35mi
13629 Dry Creek Rd Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,400	$1.59	1d	1	1.43mi
15112 Brown Ln Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$850	$0.61	1d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $95,000 Active 170 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 169 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 168 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    price $95,000
15. 2026-02-19
    price $90,000
16. 2026-01-27
    price $105,000
17. 2026-01-16
    status Active
18. 2025-11-07
    listed $110,000 Active
19. 2024-05-16
    soldstatus $60,000 Closed Sale 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Super cute, roomy and ready to move in home! Has 2 bedrooms, dining area, living room and family room . The refrigerator and all window coverings stay. The seller just replaced the roof and all the wood trim/skirt around the home. Hurry and get this home. .. it wont be here long! Please note this is in a 55 & Up Community and we must have park approval before any offer can be accepted.

20. 2024-04-09
    status Pending Sale 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Super cute, roomy and ready to move in home! Has 2 bedrooms, dining area, living room and family room . The refrigerator and all window coverings stay. The seller just replaced the roof and all the wood trim/skirt around the home. Hurry and get this home. .. it wont be here long! Please note this is in a 55 & Up Community and we must have park approval before any offer can be accepted.

21. 2024-03-16
    price $65,000 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Super cute, roomy and ready to move in home! Has 2 bedrooms, dining area, living room and family room . The refrigerator and all window coverings stay. The seller just replaced the roof and all the wood trim/skirt around the home. Hurry and get this home. .. it wont be here long! Please note this is in a 55 & Up Community and we must have park approval before any offer can be accepted.

22. 2023-11-24
    listed $70,000 Active 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Super cute, roomy and ready to move in home! Has 2 bedrooms, dining area, living room and family room . The refrigerator and all window coverings stay. The seller just replaced the roof and all the wood trim/skirt around the home. Hurry and get this home. .. it wont be here long! Please note this is in a 55 & Up Community and we must have park approval before any offer can be accepted.

23. 2020-09-25
    soldstatus $42,000 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Super cute, clean and ready to move in home! Has 2 bedrooms, dining area, living room and family room . The home is partially furnished with all modern window coverings, washer/dryer and fridge stays too! Hurry and get this home. .it wont be here long! Please note this is in a 55 & Up Community!

24. 2020-06-12
    listed $42,000 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Super cute, clean and ready to move in home! Has 2 bedrooms, dining area, living room and family room . The home is partially furnished with all modern window coverings, washer/dryer and fridge stays too! Hurry and get this home. .it wont be here long! Please note this is in a 55 & Up Community!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $404 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $722 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$318/yr (+$26/mo · 78.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 1 d/yr ≥99°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$404
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,070
• − Management: −$2,070
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $12,773
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,066
• After-tax cash flow: $10,521/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victor Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0641040
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $44,949
• Composite: 21.58/100
• National rank: #8304
• State rank: #408 of 517 in CA

Livability — Victorville

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #906
• US rank: #24038

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victorville, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 154,418
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 65,429
• Household income: $87,681
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1879.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 24% White 22% Black 14% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 38% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.57%
• Current HPI: 358.5152
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.69%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+126.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $95,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $90,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $105,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-16 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-11-07 Listed $110,000 CRMLS
• 2024-05-16 Sold (MLS) $60,000 CRMLS
• 2024-04-09 Pending — CRMLS
• 2024-03-16 Price Changed $65,000 CRMLS
• 2023-11-24 Listed $70,000 CRMLS
• 2020-09-25 Sold (MLS) $42,000 CRMLS
• 2020-06-12 Listed $42,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $404 · +13.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.