9 Beech St · Lehigh, PA 18424

$199,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1950 10,454 sqft lot Est $322k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

''Charming Gouldsboro Lake Cottage with Lake Rights & STR Potential!'' Welcome to your perfect Pocono escape--this beautifully maintained, turn-key cottage near Gouldsboro Lake and state park offers the ideal blend of relaxation, investment opportunity, and outdoor adventure. Just a few steps from deeded lake access, enjoy all the benefits of lake living with no HOA rules or fees. This fully furnished and thoughtfully equipped home has been white-glove maintained, making it truly move-in or rental ready from day one. Inside, you'll find a warm and inviting space designed for comfort, while outside, a covered patio creates the perfect setting for entertaining or unwinding after a da

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Storage shed
• Deeded lake access

Tags

• GOULDSBORO LAKE RIGHTS
• DEEDED LAKE ACCESS
• COVERED PATIO
• DETACHED GARAGE
• FINISHED THIRD BEDROOM
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-251 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (32.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• North Pocono SD (rural): math 45% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #82 of 539 in PA (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $134,070 (32.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.41%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $321,600
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
75 Third St	0.06mi	2/1.5	870 (+9%)	5mo	$350,000	$402	77
65 Wildflower Circle Cir	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	816 (+2%)	12mo	$213,000	$261	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $71,777
• Equity at exit: $157,388

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.96×
• Total profit: $220,504
• Equity at exit: $318,523

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18424

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,341 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,208/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $-251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,659

Max offer price $154,592

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $199,000 Active
3. 2025-09-16
   price $209,000
4. 2025-07-11
   price $219,000
5. 2025-05-15
   price $229,000
6. 2025-04-11
   listed $239,000 Active
7. 2024-09-06
   listed $249,000 Active
8. 2022-10-25
   soldstatus $226,000
9. 2022-10-15
   soldstatus $226,000
10. 2022-10-15
    soldstatus Closed
11. 2022-09-17
    historical
12. 2022-09-12
    listed $230,000
13. 2022-09-12
    listed $230,000
14. 2007-10-02
    soldstatus $82,400
15. 2007-09-21
    soldstatus $82,400
16. 2007-09-21
    soldstatus $82,400
17. 2007-07-14
    listed $85,000
18. 2003-10-23
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,208 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,676 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: +$468/yr (+$39/mo · 21.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,208
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,287
• − Management: −$1,287
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$6,625
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,590
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,426/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Pocono SD
• NCES district ID: 4217310
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,555
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1894
• State rank: #82 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lehigh

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gouldsboro, PA
• Population (ZIP): 5,076

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Iranian 6% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.45%
• Current HPI: 399.903
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+298.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-04-16 Listed $199,000 PMAR
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $209,000 PMAR
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $219,000 PMAR
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $229,000 PMAR
• 2025-04-11 Listed $239,000 PMAR
• 2024-09-06 Listed $249,000 PMAR
• 2022-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $226,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-15 Sold (MLS) — PWMLS
• 2022-10-15 Sold (MLS) $226,000 PWMLS
• 2022-09-17 Delisted — PWMLS
• 2022-09-12 Listed $230,000 PWMLS
• 2022-09-12 Listed $230,000 PWMLS
• 2007-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $82,400 Public Records
• 2007-09-21 Sold (MLS) $82,400 PMAR
• 2007-09-21 Sold (MLS) $82,400 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2007-07-14 Listed $85,000 PMAR
• 2003-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,208 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.