11949 Riverside Dr #55 · Lakeside, CA 92040

$135,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 1 Days on market

Built 1971

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nice clean home in Willowbrook Estates East. Freshly painted. Laminate flooring.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1971

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Lakeside subdivision
• HOA & community: Senior community; Willowbrook Estates East community; Breed restrictions for pets

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile home; Single-story
• Construction: Composition roof; Metal roof; Rolled/hot mop roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch

Interior

• Bedrooms: Possible 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Disposal; Carpet flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $135k).
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 2.6% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#877 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A-, housing A-, health & safety B; Watch: commute D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Lakeside Union Elementary (suburban): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #480 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.58%
• DSCR: 2.49
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $315,744
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11949 Riverside Dr #55	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	0mo	$125,000	$100	100
11949 Riverside Dr #155	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	2mo	$95,000	$71	80
11949 Riverside Dr #133	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,376 (+10%)	1mo	$161,000	$117	79
11851 Riverside #202	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,246 (-0%)	21mo	$285,000	$229	72
11851 Riverside Dr #246	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,400 (+12%)	10mo	$418,500	$299	66
11949 Riverside Dr #25	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	22mo	$340,000	$253	65
11851 Riverside Dr Spc 223	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,418 (+14%)	10mo	$375,000	$264	64
11851 Riverside Dr #262	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,331 (+7%)	20mo	$342,000	$257	62
11851 RIVERSIDE Dr #238	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+12%)	15mo	$375,000	$268	57
11851 Riverside Dr Spc 260	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,360 (+9%)	23mo	$300,000	$221	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $46,966
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.54×
• Total profit: $133,734
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92040

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,520 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $1,058

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12156 Lakeside Ave Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.0	1424	$3,500	$2.46	1d	1	0.31mi
SR 67 Lakeside, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,500	$3.57	1d	1	0.48mi
9830 Summersun Ln Lakeside, CA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1325	$2,400	$1.81	1d	1	0.64mi
12001 Woodside Ave Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	1006	$2,350	$2.34	1d	1	0.71mi
12225 Woodside Ave Unit 12225 B Lakeside, CA	2.0	1.0	860	$2,150	$2.50	1d	1	0.71mi
12370 Parkside St Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	944	$1,925	$2.04	7d	1	0.75mi
12618 Laurel St Unit 12618 C Lakeside, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,390	$2.17	1d	1	0.91mi
10112 Ashwood St Lakeside, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	763	$1,944	$2.55	1d	8	0.93mi
9662 Marilla Dr Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	931	$2,388	$2.56	1d	4	0.94mi
9669 Marilla Dr Unit 0C Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	850	$2,105	$2.48	1d	1	0.94mi
9662 Marilla Dr Unit 93 Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	931	$2,350	$2.52	10d	1	0.94mi
9728 Marilla Dr #305 Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	944	$2,590	$2.74	1d	1	0.95mi
12403 Julian Ave #206 Lakeside, CA	2.0	1.0	806	$2,850	$3.54	1d	1	0.95mi
12645 Laurel St Apt 13 Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,950	$2.17	1d	1	0.96mi
12645 Laurel St Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,950	$2.17	10d	1	0.96mi
9525 Riverview Ave Lakeside, CA	2.0	1.0	740	$3,050	$4.12	7d	1	1.04mi
12738 Lakeshore Dr Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.5	1368	$4,300	$3.14	7d	1	1.10mi
12840 Mapleview St Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	880	$2,100	$2.39	1d	3	1.10mi
9413 Winter Gardens Blvd Lakeside, CA	2.0	1.5	700	$2,195	$3.14	1d	1	1.15mi
12905 Mapleview St Lakeside, CA	2.0	1.5	800	$2,244	$2.80	1d	3	1.17mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $135,000 Active
3. 2001-08-23
   historical
4. 2001-02-23
   listed $58,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,419
• − Management: −$2,419
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $11,212
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,691
• After-tax cash flow: $10,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0620790
• Math proficiency: 41% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $65,574
• Composite: 43.51/100
• National rank: #6453
• State rank: #480 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #877
• US rank: #23702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 46,216
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,216
• Household income: $107,937
• Rent vs Own: 32.3% rent · 67.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1147.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -622.09%
• Current HPI: 344.8263
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.56%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+130.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — SDMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $135,000 SDMLS
• 2001-08-23 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2001-02-23 Listed $58,500 SDMLS