442 N Murphy Dr · Republic, MO 65738

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,378 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2002 9,148 sqft lot Est $251k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You'll love this well maintained home in Republic just a block from Owen Park! Driving up you will notice great landscaping in the front yard and a roof that is less than a year old. Walking into the home you will love the colors that the owner has chosen, and the gas fireplace in the corner of the spacious living room. The eat in kitchen gives you plenty of room to move around with a lot of counter space and cabinets. Off of the kitchen is a large pantry across the hall from a convenient laundry room. The garage features an underground storm shelter for your peace of mind. With three bedrooms and two bathrooms, enjoy the two walk-in closets in the large en-suite master. The backyard has a wood deck perfect for entertaining, a privacy fenced yard and a small storage shed perfect for keeping your yard tools. Come see for yourself why this may be the perfect home for you!

Key facts

• Wood deck
• Gas fireplace
• Large pantry

Tags

• GAS FIREPLACE
• LARGE PANTRY
• CONVENIENT LAUNDRY ROOM
• UNDERGROUND STORM SHELTER
• WOOD DECK
• PRIVACY FENCED YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.21 acre (dimensions 80 x 116); Asphalt and concrete road frontage on a public maintained city street; Subdivision: Century Place

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Deck; Front porch; Storm doors; Privacy wood fencing (full); Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric cooktop; Free-standing electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: Walk-in closet(s) in bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heating; Fireplace insert heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Pantry; Tray ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Insulated double-pane windows; Fireplace with gas insert
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located on main level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.0% in Republic — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#92 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Republic R-III (suburban): math 56% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lyon Elementary (math 56% / reading 56%, grade C+, #180 of 1,115 statewide, top 16%, 437 students, 41% FRL); Republic Middle (math 50% / reading 53%, grade C, #57 of 391 statewide, top 15%, 1,146 students, 39% FRL); Republic High (math 56% / reading 60%, grade C, #48 of 521 statewide, top 9%, 1,542 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 480 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,720 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.71%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $250,796
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
435 N Claremont Pl	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,375 (-0%)	3mo	$237,000	$172	91
2533 E Moonlight St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,343 (-2%)	3mo	$245,000	$182	87
2738 E Moonlight St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-4%)	1mo	$240,000	$181	80
2429 E Timber Oak St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-2%)	3mo	$262,229	$194	72
761 N Lexington Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+2%)	3mo	$254,900	$182	68
2418 E Terrier St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-6%)	2mo	$260,467	$200	66
508 N Glenwood Ave	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,461 (+6%)	4mo	$250,000	$171	64
3099 E Loren St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,362 (-1%)	3mo	$229,900	$169	64
3120 E Marshall St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-3%)	1mo	$260,000	$195	61
3106 E Marshall St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-4%)	3mo	$249,995	$189	58
548 N Jester Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,208 (-12%)	1mo	$235,000	$195	57
2462 E Beagle St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+9%)	3mo	$269,900	$179	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-28,948
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-13,423
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65738

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 480
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,867 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,701/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,756

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $212	-5% $150	+0% $88	+5% $26	+10% $-37
Rent	-10% $-60	-5% $14	+0% $88	+5% $162	+10% $235
Rate	-1.0pp $199	-0.5pp $144	base $88	+0.5pp $31	+1.0pp $-27

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
644 N Cox Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,595	$1.16	45d	1	0.38mi
922 N Blake Ave Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	45d	1	0.49mi
101 S Basswood Ave Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,250	$1.18	45d	1	0.50mi
923 N Blake AVE Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	45d	1	0.50mi
928 N Blake Ave Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	45d	1	0.50mi
625 Turner Ave Republic, MO	2.0–3.0	2.5	1609	$1,895	$1.18	15d	6	0.51mi
2488 Timber Oak St Republic, MO	4.0	2.0	1550	$1,895	$1.22	45d	1	0.51mi
929 N Blake Ave Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	45d	1	0.51mi
937 N Blake Ave Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	45d	1	0.52mi
1031 N Blake Ave Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	45d	1	0.61mi
810 N Oakwood Ave Republic, MO	2.0–3.0	2.0	1239	$924	$0.75	15d	4	0.64mi
1090 N Northwood Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,200	$0.91	15d	1	0.71mi
1605 E Hines St Republic, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$1,060	$1.26	15d	10	0.76mi
1740 E Hamilton St Republic, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1110	$1,395	$1.26	45d	7	0.88mi
109 N Allen Ave Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1141	$1,295	$1.13	45d	1	1.00mi
1413 N Lyon Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,799	$1.15	45d	1	1.15mi
2983 Heritage St Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,799	$1.15	25d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $220,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,701 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,134 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$433/yr (+$36/mo · 25.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,406
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,701
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,793
• − Management: −$1,793
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$2,703
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$649
• After-tax cash flow: $1,704/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Republic R-III
• NCES district ID: 2926220
• Math proficiency: 56% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,329
• Composite: 48.3/100
• National rank: #2152
• State rank: #19 of 324 in MO

Livability — Republic

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #92
• US rank: #6228

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Republic, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 21,283
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 21,283
• Household income: $67,841
• Rent vs Own: 33.8% rent · 66.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 461.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 217.1512
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.61%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+100.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $220,000 SOMO
• 2021-05-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-05-07 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2021-03-27 Listed $165,000 SOMO
• 2015-05-20 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2015-05-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-03-17 Listed $109,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,701 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.