12817 N 19th Pl · Phoenix, AZ 85022

$74,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Land · 186 Days on market

Built 1986 Good condition 3,784 sqft lot $81/sqft · 66% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Family-friendly park in an ideal Paradise Valley location! Located on a premium corner lot with fantastic views. This freshly remodeled home with vinyl plank flooring throughout for easy care, vaulted ceilings, light interior paint, ceiling fans and window treatments is move-in ready. Open concept with split bedrooms for privacy. Kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, microwave, tile backsplash at range, upgraded sink and counter-tops. Inside laundry with newer stainless steel washer/dryer. Master suite hosts a walk-in closet and ensuite with upgraded walk-in shower and vanity. Secondary bedroom with bay window, plenty of closet storage, conveniently located near second full bathroom. Second bath offers tiled shower surround, tub and newer vanity. Great value here!

Key facts

• Premium corner lot
• Fantastic views
• Open concept

Tags

• PREMIUM CORNER LOT
• FANTASTIC VIEWS
• FRESHLY REMODELED HOME
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN CONCEPT
• SPLIT BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $75k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $573 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hidden Hills Elementary School (math 26% / reading 37%, grade F, #519 of 1,109 statewide, top 47%, 329 students, 48% FRL); Shea Middle School (math 20% / reading 34%, grade F, #97 of 218 statewide, top 45%, 511 students, 37% FRL); Shadow Mountain High School (math 27% / reading 35%, grade F, #111 of 381 statewide, top 29%, 1,109 students, 28% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 379 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 57d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.76%
• DSCR: 2.46
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,646
• List price: $74,900
• Delta: -66.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1720 E Thunderbird Rd #2060	0.30mi	2/2.0	886 (-4%)	1mo	$225,000	$254	78
1720 E Thunderbird Rd #2024	0.28mi	2/2.0	886 (-4%)	2mo	$220,000	$248	78
1720 E Thunderbird Rd #2094	0.37mi	2/2.0	886 (-4%)	1mo	$220,000	$248	75
1720 E Thunderbird Rd #1094	0.37mi	2/2.0	886 (-4%)	4mo	$230,000	$260	72
1720 E Thunderbird Rd #1022	0.29mi	2/2.0	810 (-12%)	4mo	$225,000	$278	62
1720 E Thunderbird Rd #2068	0.32mi	2/2.0	810 (-12%)	4mo	$199,500	$246	61
1720 E Thunderbird Rd #2003	0.31mi	2/2.0	810 (-12%)	5mo	$228,000	$281	61
792 E Eugie Ave	1.41mi	2/1.5	920 (-0%)	4mo	$279,900	$304	59
1218 E Shangri LA Rd	1.32mi	2/2.0	884 (-4%)	0mo	$318,000	$360	58
13422 N 21st Pl	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	985 (+7%)	4mo	$219,000	$222	56
12042 N 30th Pl	1.45mi	2/1.0	960 (+4%)	3mo	$507,000	$528	52
1720 E Thunderbird Rd #2125	0.33mi	1/1.0 (-1)	702 (-24%)	0mo	$203,000	$289	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $20,310
• Equity at exit: $11,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $49,101
• Equity at exit: $6,476

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85022

• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 379
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,380 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,124/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $573

Break-even live

Break-even rent $655

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $624	-5% $598	+0% $573	+5% $547	+10% $521
Rent	-10% $464	-5% $518	+0% $573	+5% $627	+10% $682
Rate	-1.0pp $610	-0.5pp $592	base $573	+0.5pp $553	+1.0pp $533

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12810 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	626	$1,336	$2.13	2d	13	0.15mi
2002 E Sweetwater Ave Unit 202 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$925	$1.16	73d	1	0.16mi
13201 N 19th Pl Unit C Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1008	$900	$0.89	73d	1	0.21mi
12440 N 20th St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	954	$1,997	$2.09	67d	1	0.23mi
13020 N 21st Pl Apt 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	800	$1,245	$1.56	15d	1	0.25mi
1720 E Thunderbird Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	701	$1,400	$2.00	13d	7	0.30mi
1720 E Thunderbird Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	704	$1,500	$2.13	17d	9	0.30mi
1720 E Thunderbird Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	704	$1,400	$1.99	7d	8	0.30mi
13230 N 21st Pl Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,395	$1.74	38d	1	0.31mi
1720 E Thunderbird Rd Unit 1720-3113 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	827	$1,325	$1.60	73d	1	0.32mi
13230 N 22nd St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	950	$1,870	$1.97	28d	3	0.44mi
13230 N 22nd St Unit 22 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	950	$2,150	$2.26	73d	1	0.44mi
13230 N 22nd St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	950	$1,900	$2.00	69d	4	0.44mi
13230 N 22nd St Unit 14 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	950	$2,100	$2.21	73d	1	0.44mi
1550 E Thunderbird Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,488	$1.52	2d	11	0.44mi
2104 E Eugie Ter Unit 202 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	950	$1,195	$1.26	48d	1	0.55mi
2104 E Eugie Ter Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	950	$1,195	$1.26	22d	1	0.55mi
2104 E Eugie Ter Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	950	$1,195	$1.26	73d	1	0.55mi
2217 E Cactus Rd Unit 4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	57d	1	0.60mi
2217 E Cactus Rd Unit 4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	73d	1	0.60mi
2223 E Cactus Rd Unit 4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,099	$1.22	73d	1	0.61mi
2223 E Cactus Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,199	$1.33	73d	1	0.61mi
2223 E Cactus Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,299	$1.44	32d	1	0.61mi
2223 E Cactus Rd Unit 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$999	$1.11	2d	1	0.61mi
2229 E Cactus Rd Unit 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,099	$1.22	40d	1	0.62mi
2235 E Cactus Rd Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,299	$1.44	36d	1	0.62mi
2235 E Cactus Rd Unit 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,099	$1.22	57d	1	0.62mi
2255 E Cactus Rd Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,199	$1.33	73d	1	0.66mi
2625 E Cactus Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	927	$2,189	$2.36	2d	26	1.02mi
11825 N 25th Pl Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	564	$1,399	$2.48	2d	5	1.06mi
11645 N 25th Pl Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	977	$1,400	$1.43	71d	5	1.09mi
2250 E Claire Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1113	$1,950	$1.75	43d	1	1.30mi
826 E Eugie Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1066	$1,795	$1.68	67d	1	1.33mi
1515 E Sahuaro Dr #1 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1077	$1,400	$1.30	7d	1	1.38mi
10644 N 15th Way Unit 08 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$925	$1.68	57d	1	1.38mi
10644 N 15th Way Apt 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	73d	1	1.38mi
10644 N 15th Way Apt 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	57d	1	1.38mi
1221 E Mescal St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,795	$1.66	24d	1	1.39mi
1221 E Mescal St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,895	$1.75	16d	1	1.39mi
754 E Eugie Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	920	$1,300	$1.41	73d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $74,900 Active 186 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $74,900 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $74,900 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $74,900 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $74,900 Active 181 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $74,900 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $74,900 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $74,900 Active 176 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $74,900 Active 175 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $74,900 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $74,900 Active 171 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $74,900 Active 170 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $74,900 Active 169 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $74,900 Active 168 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $74,900 Active 167 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $74,900 Active 165 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $74,900 Active 164 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $74,900 Active 163 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $74,900 Active 162 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $74,900 Active 161 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $74,900 Active 160 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $74,900 Active 159 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $74,900 Active 158 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $74,900 Active 157 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $74,900 Active 156 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $74,900 Active 154 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $74,900 Active 153 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $74,900 Active 152 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $74,900 Active 151 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $74,900 Active 150 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 149 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 148 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $74,900 Active 147 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $74,900 Active 146 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $74,900 Active 145 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $74,900 Active 144 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $74,900 Active 143 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $74,900 Active 141 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $74,900 Active 139 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $74,900 Active 138 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $74,900 Active 135 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $74,900 Active 134 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $74,900 Active 133 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $74,900 Active 132 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $74,900 Active 130 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $74,900 Active 129 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $74,900 Active 126 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $74,900 Active 125 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,900 Active 124 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $74,900 Active 121 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,560
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,124
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,325
• − Management: −$1,325
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $6,038
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,449
• After-tax cash flow: $5,422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,620–$13,860 screening

This move-in ready manufactured home is in good condition with vinyl plank flooring, updated kitchen and bathrooms, and well-maintained landscaping. Painting the exterior and landscaping improvements would further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Components & finishes AI

Flooring wood Counters granite

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hidden Hills Elementary School F AZ #519/1,109 Nat'l #25,956/41,679 Middle Shea Middle School F AZ #97/218 Nat'l #9,793/14,009 High Shadow Mountain High School F AZ #111/381 Nat'l #10,806/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 53,811
• Household income: $69,927
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -329.75%
• Current HPI: 313.5085
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.21%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-95.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Listed $74,900 ARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $9,150,000 Public Records
• 1989-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $1,575,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $117 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.