12817 N 19th Pl · Phoenix, AZ 85022

$74,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Land · 135 Days on market

Built 1986 3,784 sqft lot $81/sqft · 66% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Family-friendly park in an ideal Paradise Valley location! Located on a premium corner lot with fantastic views. This freshly remodeled home with vinyl plank flooring throughout for easy care, vaulted ceilings, light interior paint, ceiling fans and window treatments is move-in ready. Open concept with split bedrooms for privacy. Kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, microwave, tile backsplash at range, upgraded sink and counter-tops. Inside laundry with newer stainless steel washer/dryer. Master suite hosts a walk-in closet and ensuite with upgraded walk-in shower and vanity. Secondary bedroom with bay window, plenty of closet storage, conveniently located near second full bathroom. Second bath offers tiled shower surround, tub and newer vanity. Great value here!

Key facts

• Premium corner lot
• Fantastic views
• Open concept

Tags

• PREMIUM CORNER LOT
• FANTASTIC VIEWS
• FRESHLY REMODELED HOME
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN CONCEPT
• SPLIT BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $594 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 282 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.00%
• DSCR: 2.51
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,314
• List price: $74,900
• Delta: -65.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $21,604
• Equity at exit: $11,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $51,689
• Equity at exit: $6,476

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85022

• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 282
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,407 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,124/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $594

Break-even live

Break-even rent $655

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12810 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	626	$1,164	$1.86	1d	25	0.15mi
2002 E Sweetwater Ave Unit 202 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$925	$1.16	24d	1	0.16mi
13201 N 19th Pl Unit C Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1008	$900	$0.89	24d	1	0.21mi
12440 N 20th St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	954	$1,997	$2.09	18d	1	0.23mi
1720 E Thunderbird Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	704	$1,500	$2.13	1d	8	0.30mi
1720 E Thunderbird Rd Unit 1720-3113 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	827	$1,325	$1.60	24d	1	0.32mi
12231 N 19th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	774	$1,500	$1.94	1d	16	0.32mi
13230 N 22nd St Unit 14 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	950	$2,100	$2.21	24d	1	0.44mi
13230 N 22nd St Unit 22 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	950	$2,150	$2.26	24d	1	0.44mi
13230 N 22nd St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	950	$1,900	$2.00	20d	4	0.44mi
13230 N 22nd St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	950	$1,988	$2.09	17d	3	0.44mi
1550 E Thunderbird Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,518	$1.55	1d	13	0.44mi
2104 E Eugie Ter Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	950	$1,195	$1.26	24d	1	0.55mi
2217 E Cactus Rd Unit 4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	24d	1	0.60mi
2217 E Cactus Rd Unit 4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	7d	1	0.60mi
2223 E Cactus Rd Unit 4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,099	$1.22	24d	1	0.61mi
2223 E Cactus Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,199	$1.33	24d	1	0.61mi
2235 E Cactus Rd Unit 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,099	$1.22	7d	1	0.62mi
2255 E Cactus Rd Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,199	$1.33	24d	1	0.66mi
2625 E Cactus Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1026	$2,139	$2.08	1d	19	1.00mi
11825 N 25th Pl Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	564	$1,499	$2.66	7d	4	1.06mi
11645 N 25th Pl Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	977	$1,400	$1.43	21d	5	1.09mi
826 E Eugie Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1066	$1,795	$1.68	18d	1	1.33mi
10644 N 15th Way Apt 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	7d	1	1.38mi
10644 N 15th Way Apt 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	24d	1	1.38mi
10644 N 15th Way Unit 08 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$925	$1.68	7d	1	1.38mi
754 E Eugie Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	920	$1,300	$1.41	24d	1	1.43mi
1551 E Christy Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	702	$950	$1.35	24d	1	1.46mi
3033 E Thunderbird Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	721	$1,503	$2.08	23d	1	1.46mi
3033 E Thunderbird Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	968	$2,122	$2.19	24d	1	1.46mi
3033 E Thunderbird Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	968	$1,992	$2.06	7d	1	1.46mi
3033 E Thunderbird Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	741	$1,487	$2.01	1d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,900 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $74,900 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $74,900 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,900 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-02-03
    listed $74,900 Active 779-char remark

    Show marketing remark (779 chars)

    Family-friendly park in an ideal Paradise Valley location! Located on a premium corner lot with fantastic views. This freshly remodeled home with vinyl plank flooring throughout for easy care, vaulted ceilings, light interior paint, ceiling fans and window treatments is move-in ready. Open concept with split bedrooms for privacy. Kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, microwave, tile backsplash at range, upgraded sink and counter-tops. Inside laundry with newer stainless steel washer/dryer. Master suite hosts a walk-in closet and ensuite with upgraded walk-in shower and vanity. Secondary bedroom with bay window, plenty of closet storage, conveniently located near second full bathroom. Second bath offers tiled shower surround, tub and newer vanity. Great value here!

16. 2025-10-30
    soldstatus $9,150,000
17. 1989-08-18
    soldstatus $1,575,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,888
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,124
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,351
• − Management: −$1,351
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $6,314
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,515
• After-tax cash flow: $5,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 53,811
• Household income: $69,927
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2976.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -329.75%
• Current HPI: 313.5085
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.21%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-95.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Listed $74,900 ARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $9,150,000 Public Records
• 1989-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $1,575,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $117 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.