609 Walnut St · Mineola, TX 75773

$99,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,576 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1985 0.59 ac lot $63/sqft · 40% below area Est $165k · 40% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2 bed/2 bath home sits on a 0.59-acre lot and offers 1,576 sq ft of space ready to be reimagined. This property is a full renovation opportunity with endless potential for someone ready to bring it back to life. The home features a spacious layout that can be redesigned into a warm, charming small-town retreat, a modern residence, or an income-producing investment. The large lot enhances the possibilities for outdoor living, additions, or future projects. A storm/tornado shelter is already in place, adding valuable practicality. A rare chance to create something truly your own. Priced to sell at just under $73/sq. ft!

Key facts

• Large lot
• 0.59 acre lot
• Built 1985

Tags

• FULL RENOVATION OPPORTUNITY
• LARGE LOT
• STORM TORNADO SHELTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $563 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 2.6% in Mineola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#392 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Mineola ISD (town): math 54% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #190 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 261 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.37%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,993
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -40.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
223 Cheek St	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,712 (+9%)	5mo	$210,000	$123	68
308 W Blair St	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,545 (-2%)	10mo	$179,000	$116	67
705 Porter St	0.29mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,660 (+5%)	16mo	$169,000	$102	55
1265 Fm 1799	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,388 (-12%)	4mo	$249,900	$180	43
516 W Blair St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,366 (-13%)	22mo	$170,000	$124	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $19,861
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $63,650
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75773

• Home prices YoY: -8.9%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,620 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,880/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $563

Break-even live

Break-even rent $908

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $619	-5% $591	+0% $563	+5% $535	+10% $507
Rent	-10% $435	-5% $499	+0% $563	+5% $627	+10% $691
Rate	-1.0pp $613	-0.5pp $588	base $563	+0.5pp $537	+1.0pp $511

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
409 Chapparel St Mineola, TX	3.0	1.0	1424	$1,400	$0.98	45d	1	0.36mi
803 Second St Mineola, TX	3.0	1.0	1160	$1,400	$1.21	14d	1	0.65mi
806 S Newsom St Mineola, TX	3.0	2.5	1488	$1,750	$1.18	22d	1	0.76mi
515 Giraud St Mineola, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	22d	1	0.93mi
806 N Newsom St Mineola, TX	3.0	2.5	1488	$1,750	$1.18	45d	1	0.96mi
150 Blue Bird Ln Mineola, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,750	$1.40	45d	1	1.26mi
200 Blue Bird Ln Mineola, TX	3.0	2.0	1506	$1,900	$1.26	22d	1	1.27mi
211 Blue Bird Ln Mineola, TX	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,700	$1.41	22d	1	1.28mi
211 Blue Bird Ln Mineola, TX	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,700	$1.41	45d	1	1.28mi
233 Blue Bird Ln Mineola, TX	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,700	$1.41	22d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $99,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $105,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $105,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $105,000 Active 55 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    price $105,000 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    This 2 bed/2 bath home sits on a 0.59-acre lot and offers 1,576 sq ft of space ready to be reimagined. This property is a full renovation opportunity with endless potential for someone ready to bring it back to life. The home features a spacious layout that can be redesigned into a warm, charming small-town retreat, a modern residence, or an income-producing investment. The large lot enhances the possibilities for outdoor living, additions, or future projects. A storm/tornado shelter is already in place, adding valuable practicality. A rare chance to create something truly your own. Priced to sell at just under $73/sq. ft!

18. 2026-04-09
    status Active 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    This 2 bed/2 bath home sits on a 0.59-acre lot and offers 1,576 sq ft of space ready to be reimagined. This property is a full renovation opportunity with endless potential for someone ready to bring it back to life. The home features a spacious layout that can be redesigned into a warm, charming small-town retreat, a modern residence, or an income-producing investment. The large lot enhances the possibilities for outdoor living, additions, or future projects. A storm/tornado shelter is already in place, adding valuable practicality. A rare chance to create something truly your own. Priced to sell at just under $73/sq. ft!

19. 2026-04-04
    status Pending 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    This 2 bed/2 bath home sits on a 0.59-acre lot and offers 1,576 sq ft of space ready to be reimagined. This property is a full renovation opportunity with endless potential for someone ready to bring it back to life. The home features a spacious layout that can be redesigned into a warm, charming small-town retreat, a modern residence, or an income-producing investment. The large lot enhances the possibilities for outdoor living, additions, or future projects. A storm/tornado shelter is already in place, adding valuable practicality. A rare chance to create something truly your own. Priced to sell at just under $73/sq. ft!

20. 2026-03-31
    listed $115,000 Active 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    This 2 bed/2 bath home sits on a 0.59-acre lot and offers 1,576 sq ft of space ready to be reimagined. This property is a full renovation opportunity with endless potential for someone ready to bring it back to life. The home features a spacious layout that can be redesigned into a warm, charming small-town retreat, a modern residence, or an income-producing investment. The large lot enhances the possibilities for outdoor living, additions, or future projects. A storm/tornado shelter is already in place, adding valuable practicality. A rare chance to create something truly your own. Priced to sell at just under $73/sq. ft!

21. 2023-07-17
    soldstatus
22. 1989-04-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,880 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,880 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 50% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,880
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,556
• − Management: −$1,556
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $5,533
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,328
• After-tax cash flow: $5,428/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mineola ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830930
• Math proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,121
• Composite: 42.27/100
• National rank: #3274
• State rank: #190 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mineola

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #8222

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mineola, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,311

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.31%
• Current HPI: 227.0529
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $105,000 GTAR
• 2026-04-09 Relisted — GTAR
• 2026-04-04 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-03-31 Listed $115,000 GTAR
• 2023-07-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+25.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,880 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.