20420 Mule Deer Dr · Oklahoma City, OK 73012

$226,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,266 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,800 sqft lot Est $252k · 10% under $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead eligible
• Financial info: Loan-qualified; Not assumable
• HOA & community: Mandatory association dues; Association fee $350 (includes common area maintenance)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; New home; Faces unspecified direction
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Shingle roof; Built by Lennar
• Exterior features: Interior lot; No exterior special features listed

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: One-level layout; Living area from builder; Post-tension foundation

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $227k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.7% in Oklahoma City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#3 in OK, #1,635 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Deer Creek (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #4 of 270 in OK (top 2%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Rose Union Es (math 72% / reading 52%, grade B, #6 of 845 statewide, top 1%, 606 students, 0% FRL); Deer Creek Ms (math 35% / reading 43%, grade F, #10 of 345 statewide, top 3%, 1,179 students, 0% FRL); Deer Creek Hs (math 39% / reading 51%, grade D-, #13 of 447 statewide, top 3%, 2,036 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 647 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,365 units permitted in Oklahoma County in 2024 (569 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oklahoma County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,439 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.05%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $251,934
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2928 NW 196th Pl	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,257 (-1%)	1mo	$263,024	$209	74
19621 Canning Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,257 (-1%)	3mo	$256,284	$204	74
3021 NW 196th Pl	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,257 (-1%)	2mo	$261,024	$208	73
2520 NW 199th St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,282 (+1%)	4mo	$250,000	$195	73
19641 Ferris Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,257 (-1%)	2mo	$261,024	$208	73
3016 NW 196th Pl	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,249 (-1%)	4mo	$254,400	$204	70
2405 NW 197th St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-1%)	3mo	$215,000	$172	65
3020 NW 196th Pl	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,347 (+6%)	2mo	$268,144	$199	63
19629 Ferris Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,347 (+6%)	2mo	$268,064	$199	62
2341 NW 197th St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,319 (+4%)	4mo	$210,000	$159	56
19704 Forsythe Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,453 (+15%)	4mo	$248,000	$171	50
2341 NW 196th Ter	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,406 (+11%)	1mo	$250,000	$178	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-46,959
• Equity at exit: $33,832

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-62,792
• Equity at exit: $19,618

Cash invested: $63,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73012

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 647
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,884 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,190
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$284 /mo · $3,404/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,022

Max offer price $211,216

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $48	-5% $-30	+0% $-108	+5% $-187	+10% $-265
Rent	-10% $-257	-5% $-183	+0% $-108	+5% $-34	+10% $40
Rate	-1.0pp $6	-0.5pp $-51	base $-108	+0.5pp $-167	+1.0pp $-227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,725
• Closing costs: $6,807
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19804 Canning Ct Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1875	$2,595	$1.38	18d	1	0.32mi
19717 Whitley Rd Edmond, OK	4.0	2.0	1701	$1,995	$1.17	18d	1	0.42mi
19708 Barrister Cir Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,595	$1.27	3d	1	0.53mi
19613 Bolton Rd Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,795	$1.34	3d	1	0.53mi
2921 NW 195th St Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1342	$1,695	$1.26	12d	1	0.55mi
2925 NW 195th St Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1342	$1,695	$1.26	25d	1	0.55mi
2941 NW 195th St Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1342	$1,695	$1.26	6d	1	0.58mi
19629 Ferris Dr Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,850	$1.37	25d	1	0.58mi
2945 NW 195th St Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1253	$1,650	$1.32	6d	1	0.58mi
19501 Conway Dr Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1253	$1,650	$1.32	6d	1	0.60mi
19521 Conway Dr Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1253	$1,650	$1.32	25d	1	0.60mi
19505 Conway Dr Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1342	$1,695	$1.26	25d	1	0.60mi
19513 Conway Dr Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1253	$1,650	$1.32	25d	1	0.60mi
19509 Conway Dr Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1342	$1,695	$1.26	6d	1	0.60mi
19704 Taggert Dr Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,645	$1.24	6d	1	0.60mi
19704 Vivace Dr Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	3d	1	0.72mi
2364 NW 197th St Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,595	$1.28	3d	1	0.73mi
2317 NW 198th St Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,700	$1.29	25d	1	0.77mi
2800 NW 192nd St Edmond, OK	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1118	$2,270	$2.03	3d	11	0.83mi
19217 Garden Creek Ln Edmond, OK	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,045	$1.12	12d	1	0.96mi
19601 N Pennsylvania Ave Edmond, OK	3.0	2.5	1441	$1,745	$1.21	3d	1	1.04mi
19501 N Pennsylvania Ave Edmond, OK	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1122	$1,750	$1.56	3d	11	1.07mi
2145 Scissortail Landing Dr Edmond, OK	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,795	$1.00	3d	1	1.10mi
18613 Vivo Dr Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1682	$1,995	$1.19	20d	1	1.28mi
2344 Roca Dr Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1213	$1,650	$1.36	13d	1	1.32mi
18509 Agua Dr Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1595	$1,800	$1.13	3d	1	1.37mi
3005 NW 183rd St Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,650	$1.25	4d	1	1.41mi
21925 Homesteaders Rd Edmond, OK	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,100	$1.47	18d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $226,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 530-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

3. 2026-06-18
   listed $226,900 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,613
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,710
• − Property taxes: −$3,404
• − Insurance: −$1,134
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,809
• − Management: −$1,809
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$6,601
• Taxable loss: −$5,202
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,248
• After-tax cash flow: $-52/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home features a spacious open floorplan and modern finishes, making it a good candidate for a cosmetic renovation to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and make the home look more inviting.
• Resale Replace the front door — A new front door can improve the home's curb appeal and security.
• Rental Clean the gutters — Clean gutters can prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and make the home look more inviting. ↑
• Resale Replace the front door — A new front door can improve the home's curb appeal and security. ↑
• Rental Clean the gutters — Clean gutters can prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Creek
• NCES district ID: 4009570
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $101,218
• Composite: 41.46/100
• National rank: #3465
• State rank: #4 of 270 in OK

Livability — Oklahoma City

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1635

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oklahoma County · 771,644 people
• City population: 498,656
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• Population (ZIP): 46,993
• Household income: $126,659
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 898.0

Population outlook (Oklahoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 911,875 people
• By 2030: 982,413 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,130,468 · +24.0%
• By 2050: 1,288,422 · +41.3%
• By 2075: 1,711,482 · +87.7%
• By 2100: 2,088,448 · +129.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Two or more races 10% Black 8% Asian 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oklahoma

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.1pp toward D · 2008: -16.8pp · 2024: -1.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.7 2020: R+1.1 2016: R+10.5 2012: R+16.7 2008: R+16.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.41%
• Current HPI: 203.1105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.21%
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $226,900 Zillow
• 2026-06-18 Listed $226,900 MLSOK