557 Vickers Ln · Heron Bay, GA 30248

$345,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,088 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 2005 0.27 ac lot $165/sqft · 62% above area Est $393k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and peaceful surroundings. Nestled in a quiet area of Locust Grove, the property provides a welcoming atmosphere with a functional layout ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Inside, you'll find bright and inviting living spaces with plenty of natural light, along with a well-appointed kitchen featuring ample cabinet and counter space. The bedrooms are generously sized, offering flexibility for family, guests, or a home office, while the primary suite serves as a comfortable private retreat. Step outside to enjoy a spacious yard with room to relax, garden, or host gatherings, all while enjoying the privacy and tranquility of the setting. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways, 577 Vickers Lane offers a great opportunity to enjoy quiet living without sacrificing accessibility.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Private retreat
• Conveniently located

Tags

• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS YARD
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-932/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $331k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (28.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Heron Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#159 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bethlehem Elementary School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #753 of 1,228 statewide, top 64%, 474 students, 53% FRL); Luella Middle School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #345 of 470 statewide, top 74%, 870 students, 53% FRL); Luella High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #277 of 424 statewide, top 67%, 1,373 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 499 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $205k; list at $345k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,046 (28.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.96%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $392,902
• List price: $345,000
• Delta: -12.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2728 Sandalwood Cir	0.11mi	3/2.5	2,003 (-4%)	10mo	$285,000	$142	78
412 Eglington Trl	0.23mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,197 (+5%)	3mo	$230,000	$105	73
164 Lantana Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,857 (-11%)	1mo	$275,000	$148	69
528 Vickers Ln	0.11mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,397 (+15%)	1mo	$325,000	$136	64
223 Gilliam Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,929 (-8%)	9mo	$289,900	$150	62
239 Gilliam Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,933 (-7%)	12mo	$270,000	$140	61
342 Southgate Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	2,154 (+3%)	2mo	$320,000	$149	55
339 Southgate Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	2,248 (+8%)	1mo	$330,000	$147	51
407 Black Fox Dr	0.62mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,055 (-2%)	13mo	$400,000	$195	51
227 Lantana Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	2,397 (+15%)	13mo	$325,000	$136	50
5001 Wolverine Pl	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,997 (-4%)	3mo	$320,000	$160	47
349 Southgate Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,997 (-4%)	13mo	$305,000	$153	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-63,101
• Equity at exit: $51,441

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-70,404
• Equity at exit: $29,829

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30248

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 499
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,470 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $916/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,569

Max offer price $331,285

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $118	-5% $20	+0% $-78	+5% $-175	+10% $-273
Rent	-10% $-273	-5% $-175	+0% $-78	+5% $20	+10% $118
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $10	base $-78	+0.5pp $-167	+1.0pp $-258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 N Chesapeake Bay Dr Locust Grove, GA	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,800	$1.50	26d	1	0.27mi
409 Mazley Dr Locust Grove, GA	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,040	$1.10	0d	1	0.38mi
117 Cottage Club Dr Locust Grove, GA	3.0	3.0	2109	$1,995	$0.95	45d	1	0.71mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Back On Market 891-char remark

   Show marketing remark (891 chars)

   This charming home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and peaceful surroundings. Nestled in a quiet area of Locust Grove, the property provides a welcoming atmosphere with a functional layout ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Inside, you'll find bright and inviting living spaces with plenty of natural light, along with a well-appointed kitchen featuring ample cabinet and counter space. The bedrooms are generously sized, offering flexibility for family, guests, or a home office, while the primary suite serves as a comfortable private retreat. Step outside to enjoy a spacious yard with room to relax, garden, or host gatherings, all while enjoying the privacy and tranquility of the setting. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways, 577 Vickers Lane offers a great opportunity to enjoy quiet living without sacrificing accessibility.

2. 2026-04-30
   historical 891-char remark

   Show marketing remark (891 chars)

   This charming home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and peaceful surroundings. Nestled in a quiet area of Locust Grove, the property provides a welcoming atmosphere with a functional layout ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Inside, you'll find bright and inviting living spaces with plenty of natural light, along with a well-appointed kitchen featuring ample cabinet and counter space. The bedrooms are generously sized, offering flexibility for family, guests, or a home office, while the primary suite serves as a comfortable private retreat. Step outside to enjoy a spacious yard with room to relax, garden, or host gatherings, all while enjoying the privacy and tranquility of the setting. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways, 577 Vickers Lane offers a great opportunity to enjoy quiet living without sacrificing accessibility.

3. 2026-04-13
   price $345,000 891-char remark

   Show marketing remark (891 chars)

   This charming home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and peaceful surroundings. Nestled in a quiet area of Locust Grove, the property provides a welcoming atmosphere with a functional layout ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Inside, you'll find bright and inviting living spaces with plenty of natural light, along with a well-appointed kitchen featuring ample cabinet and counter space. The bedrooms are generously sized, offering flexibility for family, guests, or a home office, while the primary suite serves as a comfortable private retreat. Step outside to enjoy a spacious yard with room to relax, garden, or host gatherings, all while enjoying the privacy and tranquility of the setting. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways, 577 Vickers Lane offers a great opportunity to enjoy quiet living without sacrificing accessibility.

4. 2026-04-01
   listed $355,000 New 891-char remark

   Show marketing remark (891 chars)

   This charming home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and peaceful surroundings. Nestled in a quiet area of Locust Grove, the property provides a welcoming atmosphere with a functional layout ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Inside, you'll find bright and inviting living spaces with plenty of natural light, along with a well-appointed kitchen featuring ample cabinet and counter space. The bedrooms are generously sized, offering flexibility for family, guests, or a home office, while the primary suite serves as a comfortable private retreat. Step outside to enjoy a spacious yard with room to relax, garden, or host gatherings, all while enjoying the privacy and tranquility of the setting. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways, 577 Vickers Lane offers a great opportunity to enjoy quiet living without sacrificing accessibility.

5. 2026-03-31
   historical
6. 2026-03-26
   listed $355,000 New
7. 2025-12-10
   soldstatus $205,000
8. 2011-01-18
   price $124,900 Reduced
9. 2010-07-23
   price $149,900 Reduced
10. 2005-03-01
    soldstatus $3,240,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $916 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,174 · $264/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,258/yr (+$188/mo · 246.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,646
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$916
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,372
• − Management: −$2,372
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable loss: −$7,100
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,704
• After-tax cash flow: $772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 1302820
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,594
• Composite: 26.13/100
• National rank: #7279
• State rank: #89 of 174 in GA

Livability — Heron Bay

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #159
• US rank: #10151

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heron Bay, GA
• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 36,038
• Household income: $83,823
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 485.0

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,041 people
• By 2030: 264,369 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 294,459 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 322,249 · +29.4%
• By 2075: 392,310 · +57.5%
• By 2100: 437,836 · +75.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.7) · D 64.5% · R 34.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +37.1pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 29.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.7 2020: D+20.5 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.09%
• Current HPI: 203.5358
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.16%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-89.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $345,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $355,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $355,000 GAMLS
• 2025-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2011-01-18 Price Changed $124,900 GAMLS
• 2010-07-23 Price Changed $149,900 GAMLS
• 2005-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $3,240,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $916 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.