416 Douglas St · Paris, IL 61944

$40,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,808 sqft · SingleFamily · 26 Days on market

Built 1890 5,464 sqft lot $11/sqft · 69% below area ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

So much character and opportunity packed into this 4 bed, 2 bath home on a corner lot in the heart of Paris. This once-beautiful home is ready for someone with vision to bring it back to life—bring your tools and ideas and make it your own. Inside, you’ll find original hardwood floors, detailed trim, and stunning pocket doors that still function—features you just can’t recreate. The layout offers flexibility with 1 bedroom and 1 bath on the main floor, while the second level includes 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, and even a second kitchen—making it a great candidate for a two-unit setup or multi-generational living. A detached garage adds extra convenience. This home is

Key facts

• 5,464 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1890

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RES
• Financial info: No investor or income/expense details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Security: No security features provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two stories
• Construction: Wood siding and plaster construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front and rear porches; Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No specific kitchen appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Total of 8 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Unfinished partial basement; Main-level laundry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $770 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.4% vs local median 8.3% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#342 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Paris-Union SD 95 (town): math 25% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #227 of 620 in IL (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Edgar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Edgar County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $39,400 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 82.51%
• DSCR: 4.67
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $130,399
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -69.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
416 Douglas St	0.00mi	4/2.0	3,808 (0%)	0mo	$20,000	$5	100
413 W Court St	0.33mi	4/2.0	3,398 (-11%)	4mo	$46,000	$14	64
302 E Court St	0.50mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,995 (+5%)	6mo	$60,000	$15	54
438 Prairie St	0.65mi	4/2.0	3,769 (-1%)	20mo	$125,000	$33	51
201 E Court St	0.44mi	4/3.0	3,318 (-13%)	6mo	$166,000	$50	49
515 Central Ave	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,540 (-7%)	12mo	$60,000	$17	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.80×
• Total profit: $42,589
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 86.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.96×
• Total profit: $100,339
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61944

• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,333 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $682/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $770

Break-even live

Break-even rent $359

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $793	-5% $781	+0% $770	+5% $759	+10% $747
Rent	-10% $665	-5% $717	+0% $770	+5% $823	+10% $875
Rate	-1.0pp $790	-0.5pp $780	base $770	+0.5pp $760	+1.0pp $749

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $40,000 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $40,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $40,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $40,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-05-06
   listed $45,000 Active 908-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $682 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $795 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$113/yr (+$9/mo · 16.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$682
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,280
• − Management: −$1,280
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $9,154
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,197
• After-tax cash flow: $7,044/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paris-Union SD 95
• NCES district ID: 1730750
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,294
• Composite: 27.73/100
• National rank: #6901
• State rank: #227 of 620 in IL

Livability — Paris

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #6933

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paris, IL
• City population: 11,426
• Population (ZIP): 11,426

Population outlook (Edgar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,960 people
• By 2030: 14,978 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 12,990 · -18.6%
• By 2050: 11,087 · -30.5%
• By 2075: 7,338 · -54.0%
• By 2100: 4,526 · -71.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Edgar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.4) · D 23.0% · R 75.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.4pp toward R · 2008: -7.9pp · 2024: -52.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.4 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+32.8 2008: R+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.48%
• Current HPI: 108.1718
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — CIBR
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $40,000 CIBR
• 2026-05-06 Listed $45,000 CIBR

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $682 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.