31 Woodcrest Ln · Lake, PA 18436

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,212 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1988 0.34 ac lot $128/sqft · 46% below area Est $288k · 46% under $194/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This inviting two-story home offers a comfortable layout, generous outdoor space, and the kind of quiet, wooded surroundings that make the area so desirable. With three bedrooms, it provides plenty of room for everyday living, weekend getaways, or hosting guests. An attached garage adds convenience and storage flexibility, and the property includes an additional outbuilding that can serve as a workshop, equipment shed, or seasonal storage. The exterior features light siding with contrasting trim, giving the home a classic look that blends naturally with the forested backdrop. Large front windows bring in sunlight and beautiful views of the outdoors. Anyone looking to bring their own creativity to this property will benefit for years to come in this strong, well-kept community.

Key facts

• Wooded surroundings
• Outbuilding
• Attached garage

Tags

• OUTDOOR SPACE
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• OUTBUILDING
• LARGE FRONT WINDOWS
• WOODED SURROUNDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Western Wayne SD (rural): math 39% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #165 of 539 in PA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 337 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $155k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $141,050 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.29%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,012
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -46.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
57 Woodview Ter	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-1%)	19mo	$265,000	$221	67
1267 Brookfield Rd	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,134 (-6%)	5mo	$232,160	$205	61
114 Woodview Ter	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,122 (-7%)	10mo	$190,000	$169	58
543 Lakeview Dr. Dr E	0.50mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,280 (+6%)	3mo	$265,000	$207	58
33 Woodview Ter	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,302 (+7%)	18mo	$185,000	$142	52
543 Lakeview Dr E	0.50mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,280 (+6%)	12mo	$265,000	$207	50
45 Brentwood Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-5%)	13mo	$229,000	$199	48
16 N Gate Ct S	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,112 (-8%)	8mo	$235,000	$211	47
529 Lakeview Dr E	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,386 (+14%)	4mo	$280,000	$202	45
9 Grandview Dr	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,282 (+6%)	13mo	$215,000	$168	44
9 Roamingwood Rd	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,342 (+11%)	6mo	$248,000	$185	38
642 Lakeview Dr E	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,386 (+14%)	14mo	$218,000	$157	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.45×
• Total profit: $149,743
• Equity at exit: $139,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.99×
• Total profit: $390,053
• Equity at exit: $301,131

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18436

• Home prices YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,358/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$194
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $1,023

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,605

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1148 Golf Park Dr Lake Ariel, PA	3.0	1.0	1210	$2,900	$2.40	24d	1	0.64mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $194 · $2,328/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $155,000 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    price $165,000 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    This inviting two-story home offers a comfortable layout, generous outdoor space, and the kind of quiet, wooded surroundings that make the area so desirable. With three bedrooms, it provides plenty of room for everyday living, weekend getaways, or hosting guests. An attached garage adds convenience and storage flexibility, and the property includes an additional outbuilding that can serve as a workshop, equipment shed, or seasonal storage. The exterior features light siding with contrasting trim, giving the home a classic look that blends naturally with the forested backdrop. Large front windows bring in sunlight and beautiful views of the outdoors. Anyone looking to bring their own creativity to this property will benefit for years to come in this strong, well-kept community.

17. 2026-04-08
    price $175,000 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    This inviting two-story home offers a comfortable layout, generous outdoor space, and the kind of quiet, wooded surroundings that make the area so desirable. With three bedrooms, it provides plenty of room for everyday living, weekend getaways, or hosting guests. An attached garage adds convenience and storage flexibility, and the property includes an additional outbuilding that can serve as a workshop, equipment shed, or seasonal storage. The exterior features light siding with contrasting trim, giving the home a classic look that blends naturally with the forested backdrop. Large front windows bring in sunlight and beautiful views of the outdoors. Anyone looking to bring their own creativity to this property will benefit for years to come in this strong, well-kept community.

18. 2026-02-27
    listed $185,000 Active 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    This inviting two-story home offers a comfortable layout, generous outdoor space, and the kind of quiet, wooded surroundings that make the area so desirable. With three bedrooms, it provides plenty of room for everyday living, weekend getaways, or hosting guests. An attached garage adds convenience and storage flexibility, and the property includes an additional outbuilding that can serve as a workshop, equipment shed, or seasonal storage. The exterior features light siding with contrasting trim, giving the home a classic look that blends naturally with the forested backdrop. Large front windows bring in sunlight and beautiful views of the outdoors. Anyone looking to bring their own creativity to this property will benefit for years to come in this strong, well-kept community.

19. 2025-09-16
    listed $230,000 Active
20. 1997-09-03
    soldstatus $56,000
21. 1987-08-04
    soldstatus $26,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,358 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,403 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: +$46/yr (+$4/mo · 1.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,358
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,784
• − Management: −$2,784
• − HOA: −$2,328
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $10,580
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,539
• After-tax cash flow: $9,738/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Western Wayne SD
• NCES district ID: 4226070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,358
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2964
• State rank: #165 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Hideout, PA
• Population (ZIP): 13,225

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.95%
• Current HPI: 331.9645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+522.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $165,000 PWMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $175,000 PWMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $185,000 PWMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $230,000 PMAR
• 1997-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 1987-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $26,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,358 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.