16005 Tipton Cir · Chester, VA 23834

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1991 10,280 sqft lot $218/sqft · 17% below area Est $264k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 16005 Tipton Circle, a charming residence located on the corner lot of a cul-de-sac in South Chesterfield. This property offers a blend of comfort and practicality, making it an ideal choice for prospective homeowners seeking a tranquil setting. As you approach the home, you’ll appreciate the well-maintained exterior, framed by mature trees and landscaped areas that enhance its curb appeal. The design features a welcoming front porch, providing a perfect spot to enjoy morning coffee or relax in the evening. Upon entering, you are greeted by a spacious living area that boasts plentiful natural light and a cozy atmosphere. Architectural elements such as rounded windows contri

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1991
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Built as actual year built (original construction); Drywall and frame construction with vinyl siding; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Stoop; Corner lot; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen (approx. 11.6 x 15.5)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor (approx. 8.0 x 11.9; 10.0 x 11.5; 11.4 x 13.9)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One bathroom with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating with heat pump
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Bedroom on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($365/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.6% in Chester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#170 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $220k implies a 222% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 38% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,483 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.59%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,197
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: -16.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16003 Tipton Cir	0.01mi	3/1.0	1,008 (0%)	8mo	$286,000	$284	88
2916 Tinstree Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,008 (0%)	4mo	$265,000	$263	79
2909 Tinstree Dr	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,040 (+3%)	3mo	$269,000	$259	74
2700 Milhorn St	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,072 (+6%)	9mo	$239,950	$224	72
15805 Roland View Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+5%)	10mo	$260,000	$246	67
16004 Gary Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	960 (-5%)	2mo	$273,000	$284	64
15517 Silvertree Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,044 (+4%)	10mo	$282,000	$270	63
3211 Sylvania Rd	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,060 (+5%)	3mo	$279,900	$264	60
15907 Meridian Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,008 (0%)	9mo	$273,000	$271	60
16002 Gary Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	960 (-5%)	7mo	$165,000	$172	59
15601 Roland View Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,116 (+11%)	5mo	$298,000	$267	54
15900 Lalonde Pl	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+14%)	4mo	$307,000	$266	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-25,255
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $18,540
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23834

• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,795 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,712/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,756

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $155	-5% $93	+0% $30	+5% $-32	+10% $-94
Rent	-10% $-111	-5% $-40	+0% $30	+5% $101	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $141	-0.5pp $86	base $30	+0.5pp $-27	+1.0pp $-85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16208 Pauline Ave Chester, VA	4.0	2.0	1496	$2,195	$1.47	44d	1	0.50mi
15801 Meridian Ave Chester, VA	2.0	1.0	870	$1,450	$1.67	21d	1	0.63mi
15151 Timsberry Cir Chester, VA	3.0–4.0	2.5	1586	$1,598	$1.01	2d	30	0.95mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $219,900 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $219,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $219,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $219,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $219,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   remarks 693-char remark
7. 2026-05-31
   statusdays on market $219,900 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-04-28
   historical $219,900
9. 1991-06-28
   soldstatus $68,250
10. 1991-04-15
    soldstatus $13,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,712 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,803 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$91/yr (+$8/mo · 5.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 38% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$1,712
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,723
• − Management: −$1,723
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$3,435
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$824
• After-tax cash flow: $1,189/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Chester

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #5369

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 54,827
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 26,628
• Household income: $84,338
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 814.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.28%
• Current HPI: 294.4478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.50%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+1528.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-30 Listed $219,900 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-28 Coming Soon $219,900 CVRMLS
• 1991-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $68,250 Public Records
• 1991-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $13,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,712 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.