11303 Chicago Ave · Bayonet Point, FL 34654

$149,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1968 0.32 ac lot Est $244k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. LOOKING FOR AN INVESTMENT PROPERTY TO FIX AND FLIP, OR A RENTAL, OR MAYBE LOOKING FOR A PROPERTY THAT HAS GOOD BONES AND WANT TO MAKE IT YOUR OWN, THIS PROPERTY COMES WITH A NEWER ROOF, NEWER MINI SPLIT, NEWER WINDOW IN MOST OF THE HOME, THIS 3/2 PROPERTY ON ALMOST A HALF AN ACRE FULLY FENCED YARD WITH 2 GATES TO BRING ALL YOUR TOYS, ADD A POOL AND A BIG GARAGE, THIS PROPERTY HAS SUCH GREAT POTENTIAL. NEED THAT SAVVY INVESTOR OR HOME BUYER LOOKING FOR A SECOND HOME. NO HOA, NO FLOOD ZONE, SO CLOSE TO EVERYTHING BUT YET FEELS LIKE YOUR OUT IN THE COUNTRY.

Key facts

• 2 gates
• Newer window
• Newer roof

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER MINI SPLIT
• NEWER WINDOW
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• 2 GATES
• NO HOA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R1MH; Total acreage: Approximately 0.32 acres (102 x 136 x 102 x 136); Number of wells: 1; Number of septics: 1; Living area: 1,104 sq ft (building area 1,248 sq ft); Listing contact: 727-861-0861; Directions: 52 to Chicago, home down on right
• HOA & community: No association; Community features: None; Pets allowed: Cats and dogs permitted

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (open)
• Utilities: Private well water; Private sewer / septic tank; Cable available; Electricity available; Phone available; Water and sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Facing east; Property condition: Fixer
• Construction: Block, stucco, and frame construction; Shingle and other roof types; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Chain link fencing; Level, oversized lot; Paved surfaces; Near public transit; In-county location; Oak trees on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Concrete floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating: Other; Cooling: Mini-split unit(s)
• Interior features: Kitchen open to family room; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closet(s); Inside utility room; Wood-burning fireplace in living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $465 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 5.3% in Bayonet Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Schrader Elementary School (math 38% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,656 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 601 students, 82% FRL); Bayonet Point Middle School (math 38% / reading 35%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 737 students, 84% FRL); Fivay High School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,610 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 48% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,651 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.30%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $243,984
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10821 Candy Ln	0.42mi	2/1.0	1,150 (+4%)	2mo	$299,999	$261	72
11238 Owl Ln	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,169 (+6%)	1mo	$281,000	$240	54
8832 Huntsman Ln	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (-0%)	22mo	$180,000	$164	48
11423 Nest Ct	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,187 (+8%)	17mo	$210,000	$177	41
8808 Briar Patch Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,133 (+3%)	23mo	$250,000	$221	39
11419 Fox Run	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,264 (+14%)	22mo	$258,000	$204	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $200
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $18,462
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34654

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,734 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $465

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,145

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $550	-5% $508	+0% $465	+5% $423	+10% $380
Rent	-10% $328	-5% $397	+0% $465	+5% $534	+10% $602
Rate	-1.0pp $541	-0.5pp $503	base $465	+0.5pp $426	+1.0pp $387

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9440 Bourbon St Unit 9 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,275	$1.82	26d	1	0.23mi
9444 Bourbon St Unit 12 New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,875	$1.63	26d	1	0.24mi
11635 Salmon Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	816	$1,500	$1.84	26d	1	1.02mi
12221 Holbrook Dr Bayonet Point, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	761	$1,685	$2.21	0d	55	1.11mi
8431 Duval Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,731	$1.23	7d	1	1.31mi
8161 Braddock Cir #1 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	20d	1	1.33mi
10331 Flagship Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	26d	1	1.39mi
12200 Hudson Ridge Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,468	$1.33	5d	10	1.50mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   status Active
3. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-19
   listed $149,900 Active
5. 2025-12-15
   soldstatus $110,000
6. 2025-10-24
   status Pending
7. 2025-10-24
   historical
8. 2025-10-13
   listed $164,900 Active
9. 1998-10-28
   soldstatus $39,500
10. 1996-02-09
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $675 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$570/yr (+$47/mo · 84.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,809
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,665
• − Management: −$1,665
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $3,298
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$792
• After-tax cash flow: $4,790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,355
• Household income: $73,947
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 179.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.63%
• Current HPI: 294.4358
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+399.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-19 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2025-10-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-13 Listed $164,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $39,500 Public Records
• 1996-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $675 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.