51 Rocky Point Yaphank Rd #5 · Rocky Point, NY 11778

$199,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Condo · 328 Days on market

Built 1975 ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Immaculate First Floor One Bedroom Co-Op! Unit Features Spacious Living Room/Dining Room Combo, Well maintained Kitchen and Bathroom. Master Bedroom Features a Generous Walk In Closet With Tons Of Storage and Room For a King Bed Plus. Master Also Includes Sliding Glass Doors That Open Directly Out To Your Private Patio. Common Charges Include Taxes, Heat, Water, Garbage & Snow Removal. The Complex Has On Premise Laundry and Public Parking. Purchase Requires 10% Down, 700 Credit Score, $60K/YR Income & Co-op Board Approval.

Key facts

• Public parking
• Private patio
• First floor

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR
• WALK IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE PATIO
• ON PREMISE LAUNDRY
• PUBLIC PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area listed as 800 (source: Other)
• HOA & community: Association contact: Racanelli (631-434-9400)

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public sewer; No additional utilities listed
• Home design: Stock cooperative
• Construction: Aluminum siding construction
• Exterior features: Aluminum siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; No pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: No basement

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $199,000 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-391 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.6% in Rocky Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#717 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Rocky Point Union Free School District (suburban): math 67% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #152 of 590 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Frank J Carasiti Elementary School (519 students, 32% FRL); Rocky Point Middle School (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B, #161 of 729 statewide, top 24%, 638 students, 36% FRL); Rocky Point High School (math 93% / reading 70%, grade A, #484 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 923 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 328 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 328 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 3.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.43%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-56,618
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-79,168
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11778

• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$833
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,795

Max offer price $142,386

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-254	-5% $-322	+0% $-391	+5% $-460	+10% $-529
Rent	-10% $-573	-5% $-482	+0% $-391	+5% $-300	+10% $-210
Rate	-1.0pp $-291	-0.5pp $-341	base $-391	+0.5pp $-443	+1.0pp $-495

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
124 Prince Rd Rocky Point, NY	1.0	1.0	650	$2,300	$3.54	45d	1	0.98mi
25 Polk St Rocky Point, NY	1.0	1.0	650	$2,300	$3.54	45d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashsnow removal
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-10
   price $199,000
3. 2025-05-21
   listed $210,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,208
• − Management: −$2,208
• − HOA: −$9,996
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$7,728
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,855
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,840/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rocky Point Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3624840
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $86,256
• Composite: 59.12/100
• National rank: #953
• State rank: #152 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rocky Point

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #717
• US rank: #13616

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rocky Point, NY
• City population: 12,919
• Population (ZIP): 12,919

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -234.24%
• Current HPI: 340.4944
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-5.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $199,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-21 Listed $210,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid