21536 Taft Ct #203 · Estero, FL 33928

$434,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,542 sqft · Condo public records · 150 Days on market

Built 2006 $665/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

C.13863 - 3BR/2.5BA, large walk-in closet, AND a 2 car attached garage - ON THE WATER - for under $300,000. In the heart of Estero, close to a variety of shopping options, as well as restaurants, beaches, water sports and much more. Western view offers gorgeous sunsets. The furnishings in the photos are virtually staged and are not in the home.

Key facts

• Storm smart shades
• Serene lake views
• Big-ticket updates

Tags

• END UNIT COACH HOME
• CUL-DE-SAC
• SERENE LAKE VIEWS
• EXPANSIVE SCREENED-IN LANAI
• STORM SMART SHADES
• BIG-TICKET UPDATES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of the Meadows of Estero development; Subdivision / sub-condo identified
• Financial info: Total annual recurring HOA fees listed; One-time fees applicable
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly master HOA fee (master fee listed); Professional management; HOA covers cable, internet/WiFi, irrigation water, pest control (exterior), recreation facilities, sewer, street lights/maintenance, trash removal, water, insurance, repairs, reserves, security, legal/accounting, manager; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, spa/hot tub, exercise room, community room, library, BBQ/picnic area, internet access, underground utilities; Gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Paved driveway; Electric vehicle charging
• Security: Gated community; Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property; Low-rise (1-3) building design; Carriage/coach style, end unit; 2-story; Rear exposure to the west
• Construction: Built in 2006; Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior finish; Tile roof; Sliding windows; Manual storm shutters
• Exterior features: Pond; Screened balcony; Screened lanai/porch; Balcony; Cul-de-sac lot; Lake view / waterfront on a lake; Reclaimed irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Island; Pantry; Cooktop (electric); Range; Self-cleaning oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator / Freezer / Icemaker; Freezer
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Master suite includes a sitting area and is located upstairs
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Master bath with dual sinks and separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Fire sprinkler system; Foyer; High-speed internet available; Tray ceiling; 2-story floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Washer; Dryer; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $435k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (40.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $308k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (40.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewoods Elementary School (math 81% / reading 74%, grade A, #163 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 1,089 students, 25% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 34% FRL vs 57% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $435k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,850 (40.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.93%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-143,382
• Equity at exit: $64,845

10-year hold

• IRR: -84.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.98×
• Total profit: $-241,134
• Equity at exit: $37,602

Cash invested: $121,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,081 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax from tax record: −$315 /mo · $3,784/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$665
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$647
• Net cashflow: $-1,008

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,357

Max offer price $256,850

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-762	-5% $-885	+0% $-1,008	+5% $-1,131	+10% $-1,254
Rent	-10% $-1,251	-5% $-1,130	+0% $-1,008	+5% $-886	+10% $-764
Rate	-1.0pp $-789	-0.5pp $-897	base $-1,008	+0.5pp $-1,121	+1.0pp $-1,235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,725
• Closing costs: $13,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3535 Cherry Blossom Ct #202 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	2878	$2,800	$0.97	25d	1	0.09mi
3535 Cherry Blossom Ct #102 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	1917	$2,900	$1.51	25d	1	0.09mi
3610 Lansing Loop #103 Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	1917	$2,800	$1.46	4d	1	0.20mi
22361 Fountain Lakes Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1942	$4,000	$2.06	25d	1	0.52mi
22632 Fountain Lakes Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1750	$3,000	$1.71	25d	1	0.77mi
21670 Red Latan Way Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2041	$3,500	$1.71	25d	1	1.10mi
22033 Natures Cove Ct Estero, FL	2.0	2.5	2650	$10,000	$3.77	25d	1	1.26mi
21790 Sunset Lake Ct Estero, FL	4.0	2.5	2758	$3,200	$1.16	15d	1	1.28mi
4751 W Bay Blvd #101 Estero, FL	3.0	3.5	2342	$12,500	$5.34	25d	1	1.40mi
4761 W Bay Blvd #703 Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2150	$9,000	$4.19	25d	1	1.43mi
23176 Grassy Pine Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1954	$5,000	$2.56	25d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $665 · $7,980/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $434,900 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $434,900 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $434,900 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $434,900 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $434,900 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $434,900 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $434,900 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $434,900 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $434,900 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $434,900 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $434,900 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-04-09
    status Active
13. 2026-03-08
    status Pending With Contingencies
14. 2026-02-19
    price $434,900
15. 2026-01-29
    price $439,900
16. 2025-12-21
    listed $449,900 Active
17. 2017-09-26
    soldstatus $265,000
18. 2017-09-25
    soldstatus $265,000 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    C. 13863 - Lowest priced water front home in Meadows of Estero! With over 2500 sq ft of living space, this condo is large and stylish. Where else in SW Florida can you have 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, large walk-in closet, AND a 2 car attached garage - ON THE WATER - for under $300,000?. Enjoy the many amenities and live in the heart of Estero, close to a variety of shopping options, including Coconut Point Mall, as well as restaurants, beaches, water sports and much more. Why wait to watch gorgeous sunsets from the western view of your new Estero home? The furnishings in the photos are virtually staged and are not in the home.

19. 2017-09-25
    soldstatus $265,000 Sold 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    C. 13863 - Lowest priced water front home in Meadows of Estero! With over 2500 sq ft of living space, this condo is large and stylish. Where else in SW Florida can you have 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, large walk-in closet, AND a 2 car attached garage - ON THE WATER - for under $300,000?. Enjoy the many amenities and live in the heart of Estero, close to a variety of shopping options, including Coconut Point Mall, as well as restaurants, beaches, water sports and much more. Why wait to watch gorgeous sunsets from the western view of your new Estero home? The furnishings in the photos are virtually staged and are not in the home.

20. 2017-08-25
    status Pending 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    C. 13863 - Lowest priced water front home in Meadows of Estero! With over 2500 sq ft of living space, this condo is large and stylish. Where else in SW Florida can you have 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, large walk-in closet, AND a 2 car attached garage - ON THE WATER - for under $300,000?. Enjoy the many amenities and live in the heart of Estero, close to a variety of shopping options, including Coconut Point Mall, as well as restaurants, beaches, water sports and much more. Why wait to watch gorgeous sunsets from the western view of your new Estero home? The furnishings in the photos are virtually staged and are not in the home.

21. 2017-08-05
    listed $297,375 Active 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    C. 13863 - Lowest priced water front home in Meadows of Estero! With over 2500 sq ft of living space, this condo is large and stylish. Where else in SW Florida can you have 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, large walk-in closet, AND a 2 car attached garage - ON THE WATER - for under $300,000?. Enjoy the many amenities and live in the heart of Estero, close to a variety of shopping options, including Coconut Point Mall, as well as restaurants, beaches, water sports and much more. Why wait to watch gorgeous sunsets from the western view of your new Estero home? The furnishings in the photos are virtually staged and are not in the home.

22. 2017-08-04
    listed $297,375 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    C.13863 - 3BR/2.5BA, large walk-in closet, AND a 2 car attached garage - ON THE WATER - for under $300,000. In the heart of Estero, close to a variety of shopping options, as well as restaurants, beaches, water sports and much more. Western view offers gorgeous sunsets. The furnishings in the photos are virtually staged and are not in the home.

23. 2017-07-31
    historical
24. 2017-04-11
    price $297,375
25. 2017-01-20
    price $302,000
26. 2016-11-18
    price $305,000
27. 2016-11-11
    status Active
28. 2016-10-31
    status Pending With Contingencies
29. 2016-10-24
    status Active
30. 2016-09-07
    historical
31. 2016-08-11
    listed $309,900 Active
32. 2016-07-28
    historical
33. 2016-05-24
    price $339,900
34. 2016-04-10
    listed $359,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,784 · $315/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,784 · $315/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,361
• − Property taxes: −$3,784
• − Insurance: −$2,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,958
• − Management: −$2,958
• − HOA: −$7,980
• − Depreciation: −$12,652
• Taxable loss: −$19,891
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,774
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estero, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+20.8% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Relisted — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-08 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $434,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $439,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-12-21 Listed $449,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2017-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records
• 2017-09-25 Sold (MLS) $265,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2017-09-25 Sold (MLS) $265,000 MIML
• 2017-08-25 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2017-08-05 Listed $297,375 NAPLESMLS
• 2017-08-04 Listed $297,375 MIML
• 2017-07-31 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2017-04-11 Price Changed $297,375 FORTMLS
• 2017-01-20 Price Changed $302,000 FORTMLS
• 2016-11-18 Price Changed $305,000 FORTMLS
• 2016-11-11 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2016-10-31 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2016-10-24 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2016-09-07 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2016-08-11 Listed $309,900 FORTMLS
• 2016-07-28 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2016-05-24 Price Changed $339,900 FORTMLS
• 2016-04-10 Listed $359,900 FORTMLS

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,784 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.