1645 Mount Everest Ln · Toms River, NJ 08753

$285,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 192 Days on market

Built 1969 5,227 sqft lot $285/sqft · 5% below area Est $302k · 5% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW ROOF AND IN THE PROCESS OF BEING CONVERTED TO GAS HEAT--an added value buyers appreciate. Located in the desirable Holiday City Silverton 55+ community, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath Lakeview model offers a functional layout and peaceful setting. The backyard backs to woods, providing privacy and a natural view. Inside features a combined living/dining area, eat-in kitchen, and two well-sized bedrooms. Additional highlights include a garage and covered front porch. A great opportunity to personalize a home with key updates already underway in a well-established community.

Key facts

• Efficient floor plan
• Natural backdrop
• Peaceful setting

Tags

• LOW MAINTENANCE LIFESTYLE
• PEACEFUL SETTING
• WOODED AREA
• NATURAL BACKDROP
• EFFICIENT FLOOR PLAN
• COMBO LIVING DINING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-584/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 434 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,835 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.73%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,580
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -5.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1568 Mount Everest Ln	0.18mi	2/1.0	1,000 (0%)	0mo	$315,000	$315	91
7 Mount Kisco Dr	0.20mi	2/1.0	1,000 (0%)	3mo	$274,000	$274	88
2241 Mount Hope Ln	0.25mi	2/1.5	1,072 (+7%)	2mo	$270,000	$252	73
1873 Hovsons Blvd	0.59mi	2/1.0	1,000 (0%)	0mo	$227,500	$228	72
1236B Hamilton Ct	0.55mi	2/1.0	982 (-2%)	2mo	$180,000	$183	70
1255C Hamilton Ct	0.60mi	2/1.0	982 (-2%)	2mo	$247,500	$252	67
15 Mount Logan Ln	0.69mi	2/1.0	1,000 (0%)	1mo	$375,000	$375	66
1108A Argyll Cir	0.68mi	2/1.0	982 (-2%)	1mo	$246,000	$251	64
23 Mount Dashan Ln	0.42mi	2/1.0	1,092 (+9%)	1mo	$332,500	$304	64
1010 Fife Ct Unit B	0.67mi	2/1.0	1,036 (+4%)	1mo	$243,000	$235	62
1134A Argyll Cir	0.74mi	2/1.0	982 (-2%)	2mo	$239,000	$243	61
1245C Hamilton Ct	0.49mi	2/1.0	858 (-14%)	1mo	$166,000	$193	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-52,763
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-63,792
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08753

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 434
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,308 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,807/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,370

Max offer price $276,402

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $32	+0% $-49	+5% $-129	+10% $-210
Rent	-10% $-231	-5% $-140	+0% $-49	+5% $43	+10% $134
Rate	-1.0pp $95	-0.5pp $24	base $-49	+0.5pp $-123	+1.0pp $-198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1042C Aberdeen Dr Unit C Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,000	$2.04	5d	1	0.55mi
335A Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$1,950	$1.99	20d	1	0.97mi
824A Balmoral Ct Unit A Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,200	$2.24	20d	1	1.04mi
341B Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,275	$2.32	23d	1	1.07mi
1305 Marshall St Lakewood, NJ	3.0	1.0	1168	$2,900	$2.48	8d	1	1.18mi
47L Cambridge Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	841	$1,795	$2.13	25d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $285,000 Active 192 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $285,000 Active 191 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $285,000 Active 190 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $285,000 Active 189 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $285,000 Active 188 DOM
6. 2026-04-11
   price $285,000 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   NEW ROOF AND IN THE PROCESS OF BEING CONVERTED TO GAS HEAT--an added value buyers appreciate. Located in the desirable Holiday City Silverton 55+ community, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath Lakeview model offers a functional layout and peaceful setting. The backyard backs to woods, providing privacy and a natural view. Inside features a combined living/dining area, eat-in kitchen, and two well-sized bedrooms. Additional highlights include a garage and covered front porch. A great opportunity to personalize a home with key updates already underway in a well-established community.

7. 2025-11-25
   listed $250,000 Active 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   NEW ROOF AND IN THE PROCESS OF BEING CONVERTED TO GAS HEAT--an added value buyers appreciate. Located in the desirable Holiday City Silverton 55+ community, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath Lakeview model offers a functional layout and peaceful setting. The backyard backs to woods, providing privacy and a natural view. Inside features a combined living/dining area, eat-in kitchen, and two well-sized bedrooms. Additional highlights include a garage and covered front porch. A great opportunity to personalize a home with key updates already underway in a well-established community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,807 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,952 · $413/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,145/yr (+$179/mo · 76.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$2,807
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,216
• − Management: −$2,216
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$5,520
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,325
• After-tax cash flow: $741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 65,448
• Household income: $105,224
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 828.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -527.36%
• Current HPI: 374.5075
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.49%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+14.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $285,000 MOMLS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $250,000 MOMLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,807 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.