16619 NW State Road 45 · High Springs, FL 32643

$275,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,112 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1958 0.42 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nothing to Do Here But Move In! Beautifully Fully Remodeled 2 Bdrm/2 Bth Cottage in High Springs! EVERYTHING is NEW! NEW A/C, Electrical, Plumbing, Kitchen w/ Stainless Appl''s, Custom Tiled Baths, Luxury Vinyl Plank Flooring thru-out and Custom Dual Pane Windows and Blinds! Home also has New Hardi-Plank Siding and Property is Fully Fenced w/ Gated Entrance. Sit on your Back Patio overlooking the woods! Lg. Work Shed and Fruit Trees too! Only minutes to Downtown and 5 mins to the Springs! Perfect Retreat!

Key facts

• 0.42 acre lot
• Built 1958
• Listed 51 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.42 acre (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)
• HOA & community: Not in a development; No HOA association indicated

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One-story; Faces east; Completed condition
• Construction: Metal roof; Other foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Outdoor grill; Trees and landscaped yard; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen open to family room; Living room open to dining room; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet; Dedicated laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (5.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.9% in High Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#506 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: High Springs Community School (math 68% / reading 60%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 974 students, 45% FRL); Santa Fe High School (math 35% / reading 56%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,154 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 190 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $275k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,832 (5.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.47%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-26,330
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $429
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32643

• Home prices YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,598 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,508/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,235

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $443	-5% $365	+0% $287	+5% $209	+10% $131
Rent	-10% $82	-5% $184	+0% $287	+5% $390	+10% $492
Rate	-1.0pp $425	-0.5pp $357	base $287	+0.5pp $216	+1.0pp $143

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17451 Southside Ct High Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	1132	$1,800	$1.59	22d	1	0.56mi
18160 High Springs Main St Unit 1359107P High Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	990	$2,646	$2.67	22d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $275,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $275,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $275,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 31 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 30 DOM
19. 2026-04-30
    listed $275,000 Active 561-char remark
20. 2021-06-10
    soldstatus $170,000
21. 2021-06-09
    soldstatus $170,000 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Nothing to Do Here But Move In! Beautifully Fully Remodeled 2 Bdrm/2 Bth Cottage in High Springs! EVERYTHING is NEW! NEW A/C, Electrical, Plumbing, Kitchen w/ Stainless Appl''s, Custom Tiled Baths, Luxury Vinyl Plank Flooring thru-out and Custom Dual Pane Windows and Blinds! Home also has New Hardi-Plank Siding and Property is Fully Fenced w/ Gated Entrance. Sit on your Back Patio overlooking the woods! Lg. Work Shed and Fruit Trees too! Only minutes to Downtown and 5 mins to the Springs! Perfect Retreat!

22. 2021-04-20
    soldstatus $170,000

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Nothing to Do Here But Move In! Beautifully Fully Remodeled 2 Bdrm/2 Bth Cottage in High Springs! EVERYTHING is NEW! NEW A/C, Electrical, Plumbing, Kitchen w/ Stainless Appl's, Custom Tiled Baths, Luxury Vinyl Plank Flooring thru-out and Custom Dual Pane Windows! Home also has New Hardi-Plank Siding and Property is Fully Fenced w/ Gated Entrance. Sit on your Back Patio overlooking the woods! Lg. Work Shed and Fruit Trees too! Only minutes to Downtown andc 5 mins to the Springs! Perfect Retreat!

23. 2021-03-08
    listed $170,000 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Nothing to Do Here But Move In! Beautifully Fully Remodeled 2 Bdrm/2 Bth Cottage in High Springs! EVERYTHING is NEW! NEW A/C, Electrical, Plumbing, Kitchen w/ Stainless Appl''s, Custom Tiled Baths, Luxury Vinyl Plank Flooring thru-out and Custom Dual Pane Windows and Blinds! Home also has New Hardi-Plank Siding and Property is Fully Fenced w/ Gated Entrance. Sit on your Back Patio overlooking the woods! Lg. Work Shed and Fruit Trees too! Only minutes to Downtown and 5 mins to the Springs! Perfect Retreat!

24. 2019-12-17
    soldstatus $69,000
25. 2019-12-06
    soldstatus $69,000
26. 2019-12-06
    listed $75,000
27. 2019-04-07
    historical
28. 2018-10-30
    listed $84,900
29. 2018-06-26
    historical
30. 2017-12-28
    listed $97,000
31. 1992-07-01
    soldstatus $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,508 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,508 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$2,508
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,494
• − Management: −$2,494
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$1,096
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$263
• After-tax cash flow: $3,706/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — High Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #506
• US rank: #9346

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 11,953
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,953
• Household income: $83,386
• Rent vs Own: 11.1% rent · 88.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 150.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.02%
• Current HPI: 308.0178
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+4483.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-09 Sold (MLS) $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-20 Sold (MLS) $170,000 NFMLS
• 2021-03-08 Listed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2019-12-06 Listed $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-06 Sold (MLS) $69,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-07 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-30 Listed $84,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-28 Listed $97,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+25.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,508 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.