3409 Oregon Trail Rd NE · Rio Rancho, NM 87144

$349,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 2020 6,534 sqft lot $250/sqft · at area comps Est $364k · at est. $26/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

is located within the after sought community of Entrada at High Range. This beautiful, one story home features an open floor plan, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. This home features granite countertops, modern cabinets, recently remodeled, new paint new tile, new appliances, new carpet, brushed nickel hardware and an attached two car garage. master suite complete with a walk-in closet, as well as a fully fenced backyard, large covered patio and front yard landscaping. Solar System Will Be Paid Off At Closing.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Recently remodeled
• Modern cabinets

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• MODERN CABINETS
• RECENTLY REMODELED
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• LARGE COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-397 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (32.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.6% in Rio Rancho — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#17 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Rio Rancho Public Schools (suburban): math 48% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #4 of 29 in NM (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.9%/yr); 1325 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,278 units permitted in Sandoval County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sandoval County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $235,346 (32.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.86%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $363,900
• List price: $349,900
• Delta: -3.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3421 Oregon Trail Rd NE	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	3mo	$337,500	$241	96
3432 Oregon Trail Rd NE	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,367 (-2%)	3mo	$335,500	$245	91
3612 Rancher Loop NE	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	1mo	$299,900	$214	90
1810 Lark Dr NE	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,393 (-1%)	2mo	$330,000	$237	85
1529 Rawhide Loop NE	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,293 (-8%)	0mo	$363,900	$281	82
1616 Saddleback Trl NE	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,293 (-8%)	2mo	$372,900	$288	81
1632 Saddleback Trl NE	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,293 (-8%)	2mo	$363,900	$281	81
3749 Rancher Loop NE	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,447 (+3%)	3mo	$308,000	$213	77
1629 Saddleback Trl NE	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,553 (+11%)	2mo	$403,900	$260	76
1641 Saddleback Trl NE	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,553 (+11%)	2mo	$405,900	$261	76
3602 Timberline Rd NE	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+11%)	3mo	$340,000	$219	68
3969 Rancher Loop NE	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+10%)	2mo	$349,000	$225	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-72,510
• Equity at exit: $52,171

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-53,536
• Equity at exit: $30,253

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87144

• Home prices YoY: -30.8%
• Rents YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 1325
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,353 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $2,996/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$26
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,856

Max offer price $279,746

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-199	-5% $-298	+0% $-397	+5% $-496	+10% $-595
Rent	-10% $-583	-5% $-490	+0% $-397	+5% $-304	+10% $-211
Rate	-1.0pp $-221	-0.5pp $-308	base $-397	+0.5pp $-488	+1.0pp $-580

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3716 Rancher Loop NE Rio Rancho, NM	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,100	$1.25	3d	1	0.29mi
2590 Camino Plata Loop NE Rio Rancho, NM	3.0	2.0	1694	$2,600	$1.53	44d	1	0.86mi
2593 Eglisfield Loop NE Rio Rancho, NM	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,100	$1.45	44d	1	1.17mi
2313 Melon Ridge Loop NE Rio Rancho, NM	3.0	2.0	1502	$3,200	$2.13	44d	1	1.22mi
2600 Idalia Rd NE Rio Rancho, NM	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,500	$1.43	3d	1	1.25mi
4011 Sierra Alta Ave NE Rio Rancho, NM	3.0	2.0	1664	$2,395	$1.44	17d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $26 · $312/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $349,900 Pending 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $349,900 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $349,900 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $349,900 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $349,900 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-05-13
   status Active 511-char remark

   Show marketing remark (511 chars)

   is located within the after sought community of Entrada at High Range. This beautiful, one story home features an open floor plan, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. This home features granite countertops, modern cabinets, recently remodeled, new paint new tile, new appliances, new carpet, brushed nickel hardware and an attached two car garage. master suite complete with a walk-in closet, as well as a fully fenced backyard, large covered patio and front yard landscaping. Solar System Will Be Paid Off At Closing.

7. 2026-04-12
   historical 511-char remark

   Show marketing remark (511 chars)

   is located within the after sought community of Entrada at High Range. This beautiful, one story home features an open floor plan, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. This home features granite countertops, modern cabinets, recently remodeled, new paint new tile, new appliances, new carpet, brushed nickel hardware and an attached two car garage. master suite complete with a walk-in closet, as well as a fully fenced backyard, large covered patio and front yard landscaping. Solar System Will Be Paid Off At Closing.

8. 2026-03-11
   price $349,900 511-char remark

   Show marketing remark (511 chars)

   is located within the after sought community of Entrada at High Range. This beautiful, one story home features an open floor plan, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. This home features granite countertops, modern cabinets, recently remodeled, new paint new tile, new appliances, new carpet, brushed nickel hardware and an attached two car garage. master suite complete with a walk-in closet, as well as a fully fenced backyard, large covered patio and front yard landscaping. Solar System Will Be Paid Off At Closing.

9. 2026-02-27
   price $354,900 511-char remark

   Show marketing remark (511 chars)

   is located within the after sought community of Entrada at High Range. This beautiful, one story home features an open floor plan, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. This home features granite countertops, modern cabinets, recently remodeled, new paint new tile, new appliances, new carpet, brushed nickel hardware and an attached two car garage. master suite complete with a walk-in closet, as well as a fully fenced backyard, large covered patio and front yard landscaping. Solar System Will Be Paid Off At Closing.

10. 2026-02-20
    listed $359,900 Active 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    is located within the after sought community of Entrada at High Range. This beautiful, one story home features an open floor plan, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. This home features granite countertops, modern cabinets, recently remodeled, new paint new tile, new appliances, new carpet, brushed nickel hardware and an attached two car garage. master suite complete with a walk-in closet, as well as a fully fenced backyard, large covered patio and front yard landscaping. Solar System Will Be Paid Off At Closing.

11. 2021-02-05
    status Pending
12. 2021-02-05
    historical
13. 2021-02-04
    status Pending
14. 2021-01-26
    listed $244,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,996 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,996 · $250/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,242
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$2,996
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,259
• − Management: −$2,259
• − HOA: −$312
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable loss: −$11,113
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,667
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rio Rancho Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500010
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 48.00%
• Median HH income: $59,410
• Composite: 52.29/100
• National rank: #1595
• State rank: #4 of 29 in NM

Livability — Rio Rancho

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #7253

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Rancho, NM
• County: Sandoval County · 110,336 people
• City population: 110,336
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 51,837
• Household income: $94,550
• Rent vs Own: 13.8% rent · 86.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Sandoval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 155,072 people
• By 2030: 161,714 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 171,831 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 178,536 · +15.1%
• By 2075: 192,517 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 197,952 · +27.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 24% Native American 4% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Sandoval

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.8) · D 51.8% · R 46.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.8 2020: D+8.4 2016: D+2.7 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.68%
• Current HPI: 215.124
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.88%
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+42.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — Southwest MLS
• 2026-04-12 Delisted — Southwest MLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $349,900 Southwest MLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $354,900 Southwest MLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $359,900 Southwest MLS
• 2021-02-05 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2021-02-05 Delisted — Southwest MLS
• 2021-02-04 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2021-01-26 Listed $244,900 Southwest MLS

Property tax history

+64.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,996 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.