249 Trinity River Holw · San Marcos, TX 78666

$196,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily · 47 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition 5,227 sqft lot Est $197k · at est. $65/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Avas - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $197k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($136/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dezavala El (math 13% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,739 of 4,322 statewide, top 87%, 575 students, 87% FRL); Goodnight Middle (math 9% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,536 of 1,662 statewide, top 93%, 866 students, 85% FRL); San Marcos H S (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,536 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 63% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1161 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,993 (7.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.25%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,340
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
249 Trinity River Holw	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,380 (0%)	1mo	$196,999	$143	99
313 Trinity River Holw	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,380 (0%)	2mo	$196,990	$143	98
216 Navidad River Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,380 (0%)	2mo	$199,990	$145	95
312 Navidad River Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,380 (0%)	5mo	$194,990	$141	94
316 Trinity River Holw	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+7%)	3mo	$208,990	$142	84
303 Navidad River Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+7%)	5mo	$212,990	$144	82
240 Trinity River Holw	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-9%)	5mo	$207,990	$165	80
308 Navidad River Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+9%)	2mo	$199,990	$133	78
236 Navidad River Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+9%)	3mo	$199,990	$133	77
228 Navidad River Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+9%)	2mo	$225,990	$151	77
204 Navidad River Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+9%)	1mo	$211,999	$141	76
248 Navidad River Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+9%)	5mo	$205,990	$137	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-32,982
• Equity at exit: $29,373

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-34,951
• Equity at exit: $17,033

Cash invested: $55,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78666

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1161
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,820 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,033
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$246 /mo · $2,955/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,806

Max offer price $196,999

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $147	-5% $79	+0% $11	+5% $-57	+10% $-125
Rent	-10% $-132	-5% $-61	+0% $11	+5% $83	+10% $155
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $61	base $11	+0.5pp $-40	+1.0pp $-92

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,250
• Closing costs: $5,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
308 Navidad River Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	26d	1	0.03mi
426 Spring River Dr Martindale, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$2,250	$1.78	26d	1	1.03mi
121 Butler Ln Martindale, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,850	$1.63	26d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   price $196,999
3. 2026-04-14
   price $201,990
4. 2026-03-13
   price $215,990
5. 2026-03-11
   listed $210,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,035
• − Property taxes: −$2,955
• − Insurance: −$985
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,747
• − Management: −$1,747
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$5,731
• Taxable loss: −$3,141
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$754
• After-tax cash flow: $890/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This home requires extensive repairs and updates to its exterior, interior, and flooring. Significant structural and aesthetic issues are evident, making it a high-potential project for renovation.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant damage and wear visible.
• Major roof — Visible damage and potential leaks.
• Major flooring — Significant damage and wear visible.
• Major interior walls/paint — Significant wear and discoloration visible.

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior siding repair and repainting — Improves curb appeal and overall condition.
• Both roof repair and replacement — Fixes potential leaks and improves structural integrity.
• Both flooring replacement — Improves living space and adds value.
• Both interior wall and paint repair — Enhances interior appearance and adds value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant damage and wear visible.	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Visible damage and potential leaks.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Significant damage and wear visible.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Significant wear and discoloration visible.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both exterior siding repair and repainting — Improves curb appeal and overall condition. ↑
• Both roof repair and replacement — Fixes potential leaks and improves structural integrity. ↑
• Both flooring replacement — Improves living space and adds value. ↑
• Both interior wall and paint repair — Enhances interior appearance and adds value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 20.11/100
• National rank: #8644
• State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 88,583
• Household income: $54,737
• Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6504.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 20% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.27%
• Current HPI: 187.6679
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $196,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $201,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $215,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $210,990 Unlock MLS