4294 Caledonia Avon Rd · Avon, NY 14423

$89,122

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 858 sqft · Manufactured · 47 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $104/sqft · 14% above area Est $78k · 14% over ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

FOR SALE * * * Brand new 858 sq ft quality built single-wide manufactured home located in Monte Carlo Park in Caledonia, NY! This move-in ready home offers 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths with a bright, open-concept layout that feels light and airy throughout. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances including an gas range, double-door refrigerator, and dishwasher, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A dedicated laundry area with washer and dryer hookups adds convenience. The home is fully set up and skirted, with large steps at each entrance for easy access. Enjoy low-maintenance living in a well-maintained community just minutes from Canandaigua Lake, shopping, dining, and

Key facts

• Desirable location
• Open-concept layout
• Built 2026

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY AREA
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING
• WELL-MAINTAINED COMMUNITY
• DESIRABLE LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease payment: $650
• HOA & community: Land lease required

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Circuit breaker electric
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; One story; CMH Homes manufacturer; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Existing (previously built)
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Varied flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Forced-air heating
• Interior features: Dining area; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Main level primary; Primary suite
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $202 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#373 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Avon Central School District (town): math 53% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #349 of 590 in NY (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 86 units permitted in Livingston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $616 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $86,448 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.72%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,499
• List price: $89,122
• Delta: 13.53%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Paddy Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	952 (+11%)	6mo	$75,000	$79	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-1,558
• Equity at exit: $13,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $15,277
• Equity at exit: $7,706

Cash invested: $24,954 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14423

• Home prices YoY: -12.0%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,035 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,337/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $780

Max offer price $89,122

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,280
• Closing costs: $2,674
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,122 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,122 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,122 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,122 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,122 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,122 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,122 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,122 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,122 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,122 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,122 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,122 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,122 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,122 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    listed $94,425 Active 793-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,992
• − Property taxes: −$1,337
• − Insurance: −$446
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$994
• − Management: −$994
• − Depreciation: −$2,593
• Taxable income: $1,069
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$257
• After-tax cash flow: $2,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a bright, open-concept layout and is located in a well-maintained community. Value can be increased with minor cosmetic updates and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint improves appearance and value
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint improves appearance and value ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Avon Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603660
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $55,407
• Composite: 44.56/100
• National rank: #2786
• State rank: #349 of 590 in NY

Livability — Avon

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #373
• US rank: #6426

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,576
• Population (ZIP): 4,829

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,466 people
• By 2030: 61,966 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 58,398 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 54,955 · -13.4%
• By 2075: 49,958 · -21.3%
• By 2100: 43,944 · -30.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.4) · D 39.3% · R 60.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -7.9pp · 2024: -21.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.4 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+9.4 2008: R+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.47%
• Current HPI: 245.11
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $89,122 CNYIS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $94,425 CNYIS