2351 Route 209 · Upper Paxton, PA 17061

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1988 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 2351 Route 209, a charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath double-wide nestled on 0.24 acres in a peaceful, rural setting. This property offers inexpensive living with the added bonus of a detached 2-car garage — perfect for vehicles, storage, or a workshop. Enjoy the quiet of the countryside while remaining close to town conveniences. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, an affordable investment, or a weekend getaway, this property offers a great opportunity to make it your own.

Key facts

• Rural setting
• 0.24 acres
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• DETACHED 2-CAR GARAGE
• RURAL SETTING
• 0.24 ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $325 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Millersburg Area SD (town): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #288 of 539 in PA (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Millersburg Area Shs (math 64%, 229 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.92%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $23,564
• Equity at exit: $35,205

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $67,185
• Equity at exit: $47,621

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17061

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,246 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,121/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $835

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-15
   soldstatus $88,000
2. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
3. 2026-02-24
   status Active
4. 2026-02-16
   status Pending
5. 2025-11-19
   listed $100,000 Active
6. 2025-10-31
   historical
7. 2025-06-01
   price $105,000
8. 2025-05-25
   price $110,000
9. 2025-05-14
   price $118,750
10. 2025-05-01
    listed $125,000 Active
11. 2025-04-28
    historical
12. 1985-06-05
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,121 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,350 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$230/yr (+$19/mo · 20.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,121
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,196
• − Management: −$1,196
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $2,429
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$583
• After-tax cash flow: $3,316/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millersburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4215360
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $50,625
• Composite: 37.4/100
• National rank: #4426
• State rank: #288 of 539 in PA

Livability — Upper Paxton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,825

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Polish 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.20%
• Current HPI: 271.943
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+780.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 2026-04-03 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-24 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $100,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-01 Price Changed $105,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-25 Price Changed $110,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed $118,750 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-01 Listed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-28 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 1985-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,121 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.