323 Grider St · Buffalo, NY 14215

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,418 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1920 3,630 sqft lot Est $179k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MUST SEE!!! Come see this SPACIOUS & picturesque 4 bedroom, 2 bath Traditional Colonial peacefully set in the Delevan Grider community in the City of Buffalo, steps from Erie County Medical Center. Character & potential abounds in this INVESTOR SPECIAL featuring a generous living room with period woodwork and trim, ready to be brought back to life, opening to the updated kitchen, a first floor full bathrm for convenience with an abundance of natural light throughout. Three generous bedrooms upstairs with a fourth smaller room and a full, walk-up attic for growth and plenty of storage. Sip your morning coffee in the front sunroom or step out into the partially fenced backyard wit

Key facts

• New drywall
• Front sunroom
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• FIRST FLOOR FULL BATHRM
• FRONT SUNROOM
• PARTIALLY FENCED BACKYARD
• TWO CAR DETACHED GARAGE
• NEW DRYWALL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 237 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $135,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.28%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,668
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
323 Grider St	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,418 (0%)	1mo	$128,000	$90	90
316 Wyoming Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,474 (+4%)	8mo	$148,000	$100	76
127 Durham Ave	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,550 (+9%)	1mo	$216,000	$139	75
368 Northumberland Ave	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,420 (+0%)	8mo	$125,000	$88	74
51 Sussex St	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,465 (+3%)	7mo	$251,000	$171	67
231 Stevens Ave	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,268 (-11%)	1mo	$200,000	$158	60
597 Norfolk Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,490 (+5%)	4mo	$160,000	$107	54
491 Northland Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,239 (-13%)	0mo	$155,775	$126	46
59 Dorris Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,278 (-10%)	9mo	$190,000	$149	44
28 Alma Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,210 (-15%)	6mo	$77,000	$64	41
275 Olympic Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,254 (-12%)	9mo	$145,000	$116	40
226 Olympic Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,223 (-14%)	6mo	$195,000	$159	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-11,004
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,678
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14215

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 237
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,525 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $334	-5% $286	+0% $238	+5% $189	+10% $141
Rent	-10% $117	-5% $177	+0% $238	+5% $298	+10% $358
Rate	-1.0pp $308	-0.5pp $273	base $238	+0.5pp $201	+1.0pp $165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
90 Sussex St Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	44d	1	0.35mi
74 Dorris Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	44d	1	0.72mi
408 Winslow Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,050	$1.05	15d	1	0.80mi
17 Proctor Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	44d	1	0.85mi
179 Donaldson Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	4d	1	0.90mi
71 Gerald Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1773	$1,100	$0.62	44d	1	0.92mi
184 Butler Ave Unit 1545840P Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1496	$3,226	$2.16	15d	1	0.94mi
517 Goodyear Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1559	$1,800	$1.15	19d	1	0.95mi
216 Newburgh Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1690	$1,150	$0.68	24d	1	1.03mi
85 Blake St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1022	$1,000	$0.98	44d	1	1.04mi
249 Newburgh Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	930	$1,300	$1.40	44d	1	1.04mi
104 Butler Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	44d	1	1.07mi
61 Courtland Ave Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	44d	1	1.14mi
140 Parkridge Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,500	$1.52	44d	1	1.14mi
67 Moeller St Unit UPPER Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,000	$1.04	4d	1	1.26mi
67 Moeller St Unit LOWER Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,200	$1.25	24d	1	1.26mi
121 Humboldt Pkwy Unit B Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1265	$1,750	$1.38	44d	1	1.28mi
117 Humboldt Pkwy Unit A Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1105	$2,300	$2.08	44d	1	1.29mi
76 Vernon Pl Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,445	$1.21	15d	1	1.29mi
76 Vernon Pl Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,595	$1.34	15d	1	1.29mi
107 Humboldt Pkwy Unit A Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1172	$1,995	$1.70	44d	1	1.31mi
102 Florida St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1296	$1,650	$1.27	44d	1	1.35mi
2 Agassiz Cir Unit A Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1076	$2,150	$2.00	24d	1	1.37mi
2 Agassiz Cir Unit B Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	983	$2,050	$2.09	24d	1	1.37mi
97 Davidson Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	925	$1,495	$1.62	2d	1	1.38mi
65 Domedion Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1632	$1,500	$0.92	2d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-13
   listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,464
• − Management: −$1,464
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $664
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$159
• After-tax cash flow: $2,692/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 42,524
• Household income: $44,955
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2873.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% White 15% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.29%
• Current HPI: 295.2966
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $139,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $230 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.