6299 Birch Ln · Seminole Manor, FL 33462

$154,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · Manufactured · 77 Days on market

Built 2004 8,712 sqft lot $1300/mo HOA · 40% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Just Listed !!! Beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home with a 2 Car Garage, Dining Room , Florida room , Great Room , Interior Laundry Room , Gourmet Kitchen with Spacious Pantry, Casual Dining Area . High ceilings , Open Floor Plan . Located in a Gated community with a Clubhouse, Two Pools, Fitness, Game Room, Tennis , Bocce and more !

Key facts

• Gated community
• Tennis
• Clubhouse

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• CLUBHOUSE
• TWO POOLS
• FITNESS
• GAME ROOM
• TENNIS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed (subject to number and size limits)
• HOA & community: Has Homeowners Association; HOA fee approximately $1,300; HOA includes common areas, laundry, grounds maintenance, pool(s), recreation facilities, sewer, security, taxes, trash, and water; Community features: clubhouse, fitness center, game room, gated entry, kitchen facilities, laundry facilities, library, pool, putting green, shuffleboard, tennis courts; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Resale property
• Exterior features: Community pool; Lot approximately 0.2 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Unfurnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $154k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#711 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,268/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 1852% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,760 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.05%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-6,640
• Equity at exit: $22,962

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $30,689
• Equity at exit: $13,315

Cash invested: $43,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33462

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,268 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$192 /mo · $2,310/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$1,300
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$686
• Net cashflow: $217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,993

Max offer price $154,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $324	-5% $271	+0% $217	+5% $164	+10% $111
Rent	-10% $-41	-5% $88	+0% $217	+5% $346	+10% $476
Rate	-1.0pp $295	-0.5pp $257	base $217	+0.5pp $177	+1.0pp $137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,500
• Closing costs: $4,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
493 Forestview Dr Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	1701	$2,300	$1.35	6d	1	0.56mi
6917 Sea Daisy Dr Lake Worth, FL	4.0	3.0	2807	$3,900	$1.39	25d	1	0.58mi
4091 Plumbago Pl Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	1816	$1,300	$0.72	25d	1	0.64mi
4648 Silver Saw Ln Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.5	1718	$3,300	$1.92	12d	1	0.76mi
4735 Blue Pine Cir Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	1732	$3,500	$2.02	25d	1	0.78mi
7093 Middlebury Dr Unit 7093 Boynton Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1470	$3,000	$2.04	25d	1	0.91mi
3841 Aspen Leaf Dr Boynton Beach, FL	4.0	2.5	2359	$4,000	$1.70	25d	1	0.92mi
4983 Pinemore Ln Unit 4983 Greenacres, FL	3.0	2.5	1628	$2,900	$1.78	25d	1	0.99mi
417 N Country Club Dr Lake Worth, FL	4.0	3.5	2868	$7,250	$2.53	25d	1	1.05mi
4725 Via Bari Lake Worth, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1150	$2,829	$2.46	4d	10	1.12mi
4302 Colony View Dr Unit 4302 Greenacres, FL	3.0	2.5	1851	$3,000	$1.62	22d	1	1.14mi
3771 Newport Ave Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1795	$3,500	$1.95	20d	1	1.17mi
4657 Meyerson Pl Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.5	1635	$2,900	$1.77	25d	1	1.23mi
4657 Meyerson Pl Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.5	1635	$2,900	$1.77	22d	1	1.23mi
4665 Meyerson Pl Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.5	1900	$3,000	$1.58	25d	1	1.24mi
6941 Boston Dr Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	1527	$3,299	$2.16	25d	1	1.25mi
6941 Boston Dr Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	1527	$3,399	$2.23	22d	1	1.25mi
5 Heather Trace Dr Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$3,100	$2.13	23d	1	1.27mi
300 John F Kennedy Dr #8 Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$3,200	$1.87	3d	1	1.36mi
300 John F Kennedy Dr #8 Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$3,100	$1.81	4d	1	1.36mi
300 John F Kennedy Dr #101 Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$3,500	$2.05	23d	1	1.36mi
300 John F Kennedy Dr #208 Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	1548	$4,800	$3.10	25d	1	1.36mi
4616 Hollister Ave Unit 4616 Greenacres, FL	3.0	2.5	1628	$3,100	$1.90	25d	1	1.36mi
7640 Forest Green Ln Unit 7640 Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1696	$3,500	$2.06	12d	1	1.37mi
7640 Forest Green Ln Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1696	$3,500	$2.06	25d	1	1.37mi
4607 Hollister Ave Unit 4607 Greenacres, FL	3.0	2.5	1628	$2,950	$1.81	0d	1	1.38mi
250 John F Kennedy Dr #308 Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,300	$1.33	21d	1	1.41mi
250 John F Kennedy Dr #408 Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,700	$1.56	25d	1	1.41mi
1239 Sussex St Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1436	$3,100	$2.16	21d	1	1.41mi
1239 Sussex St Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1436	$3,100	$2.16	25d	1	1.41mi
54 Egret Way Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1608	$3,500	$2.18	3d	1	1.43mi
1071 Fosters Mill Rd Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1615	$2,900	$1.80	6d	1	1.46mi
4220 Grove Park Ln Unit 1 Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1406	$3,600	$2.56	25d	1	1.46mi
4220 Grove Park Ln Unit 1 Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1406	$3,400	$2.42	5d	1	1.46mi
88 Buxton Ln Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$3,100	$2.14	25d	1	1.49mi
4296 Grove Park Ln Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1696	$3,350	$1.98	25d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,300 · $15,600/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $154,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $154,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    price $159,000
17. 2026-04-01
    listed $169,000 Active
18. 2020-12-31
    historical
19. 2020-09-10
    listed $89,000 Active
20. 2020-09-03
    historical
21. 2020-04-03
    listed $89,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,626
• − Property taxes: −$2,310
• − Insurance: −$770
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,137
• − Management: −$3,137
• − HOA: −$15,600
• − Depreciation: −$4,480
• Taxable income: $1,154
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$277
• After-tax cash flow: $2,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Seminole Manor

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #711
• US rank: #15076

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,371
• Household income: $73,997
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1852.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 14% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -295.48%
• Current HPI: 361.5391
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.09%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+78.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $159,000 MCRTC
• 2026-04-01 Listed $169,000 MCRTC
• 2020-12-31 Listing Removed — MCRTC
• 2020-09-10 Listed $89,000 MCRTC
• 2020-09-03 Listing Removed — MCRTC
• 2020-04-03 Listed $89,000 MCRTC