9509 Valley View Trl · Blum, TX 76093

$105,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1970 0.31 ac lot $122/sqft · 23% below area Est $136k · 23% under $7/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS WOULD BE A WEEKENDER OR A SUMMER GETAWAY. CUTE COTTAGE OVERLOOKS A BEAUTIFUL VIEW. RUSTIC WOOD INSIDE AND CURVED STAIRCASE SAVES THE SPACE INSIDE. WASHER AND DRYER CONNECTIONS AND A REALLY LARGE CLOSET. BEDROOM UPSTAIRS HAS THE BEST VIEW. NICE MORGAN STORAGE BUILDING WILL STAY.

Key facts

• Three year old roof
• Spiral staircase
• 0.31 acre lot

Tags

• VIEWS OF THE BRAZOS RIVER
• THREE YEAR OLD ROOF
• SPIRAL STAIRCASE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is sold for cash; Unknown encumbrance(s) noted
• HOA & community: Mandatory homeowners association (Fisherman's Paradise Property Owners Association); Annual association fee ($88) covering full use of facilities; Community amenities include boat ramp, campground, fishing, park, playground, RV parking and greenbelt

Exterior

• Parking: Private driveway; Gravel driveway
• Utilities: City water; Septic; Co-op electric; Asphalt access
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1970; Cedar and wood siding construction; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Some construction material unknown
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); Cleared, grassed and partially wooded vegetation; Greenbelt and interior lot in a subdivision; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (primary bedroom on upper level)
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window cooling units; No listed heating
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Natural woodwork; One living area; One dining area; Room count: 3
• Laundry & utility: No dedicated heating system listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $537 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#956 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Rio Vista ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #588 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rio Vista El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 486 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 46% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,850 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.91%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,463
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -23.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9201 Indian Trl	0.32mi	1/1.0 (-1)	880 (+2%)	14mo	$139,000	$158	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $49,625
• Equity at exit: $50,159

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.27×
• Total profit: $125,440
• Equity at exit: $79,675

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76093

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,594 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,458/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$7
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $537

Break-even live

Break-even rent $915

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $596	-5% $566	+0% $537	+5% $507	+10% $477
Rent	-10% $411	-5% $474	+0% $537	+5% $600	+10% $663
Rate	-1.0pp $590	-0.5pp $563	base $537	+0.5pp $510	+1.0pp $482

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $7 · $84/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $105,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   status $105,000 Pending 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active Option Contract 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active Option Contract 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $105,000 Active Option Contract 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $105,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-04-27
    listed $105,000 Active 1480-char remark
15. 2004-07-02
    soldstatus 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    THIS WOULD BE A WEEKENDER OR A SUMMER GETAWAY. CUTE COTTAGE OVERLOOKS A BEAUTIFUL VIEW. RUSTIC WOOD INSIDE AND CURVED STAIRCASE SAVES THE SPACE INSIDE. WASHER AND DRYER CONNECTIONS AND A REALLY LARGE CLOSET. BEDROOM UPSTAIRS HAS THE BEST VIEW. NICE MORGAN STORAGE BUILDING WILL STAY.

16. 2004-06-02
    historical 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    THIS WOULD BE A WEEKENDER OR A SUMMER GETAWAY. CUTE COTTAGE OVERLOOKS A BEAUTIFUL VIEW. RUSTIC WOOD INSIDE AND CURVED STAIRCASE SAVES THE SPACE INSIDE. WASHER AND DRYER CONNECTIONS AND A REALLY LARGE CLOSET. BEDROOM UPSTAIRS HAS THE BEST VIEW. NICE MORGAN STORAGE BUILDING WILL STAY.

17. 2004-02-13
    listed $39,900 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    THIS WOULD BE A WEEKENDER OR A SUMMER GETAWAY. CUTE COTTAGE OVERLOOKS A BEAUTIFUL VIEW. RUSTIC WOOD INSIDE AND CURVED STAIRCASE SAVES THE SPACE INSIDE. WASHER AND DRYER CONNECTIONS AND A REALLY LARGE CLOSET. BEDROOM UPSTAIRS HAS THE BEST VIEW. NICE MORGAN STORAGE BUILDING WILL STAY.

18. 1998-08-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,458 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$464/yr (+$39/mo · 31.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,133
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,458
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,531
• − Management: −$1,531
• − HOA: −$84
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $5,069
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,217
• After-tax cash flow: $5,224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rio Vista ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837200
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,983
• Composite: 26.88/100
• National rank: #7099
• State rank: #588 of 826 in TX

Livability — Blum

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #17017

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,193

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.49%
• Current HPI: 233.603
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+163.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-06-15 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-06-11 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $105,000 NTREIS
• 2004-07-02 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2004-06-02 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2004-02-13 Listed $39,900 NTREIS
• 1998-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,458 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.