718 Griffin St · Watertown, NY 13601

$73,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 858 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 505 Days on market

Built 1880 3,049 sqft lot Est $119k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Hello Affordable Living! This home centrally located in Watertown just a short drive to I-81, Fort Drum, and more. The home offers a nice manageable size that would be great to owner-occupy or use as rental income, with hardwood floors and light filled rooms.

Key facts

• Centrally located
• Hardwood floors
• Light filled rooms

Tags

• CENTRALLY LOCATED
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• LIGHT FILLED ROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $74k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $547 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $74k).
• Recommended offer: $65k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 6.2% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $511 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 505 days — a 12% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $86k (54%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $52k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $65,032 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 505 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.75%
• DSCR: 2.41
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,262
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
716 Griffin St	0.01mi	2/1.0 (-1)	897 (+4%)	11mo	$75,900	$85	78
247 Stuart St	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	847 (-1%)	11mo	$158,000	$187	61
638 Lillian St	0.56mi	3/1.0	750 (-13%)	0mo	$125,000	$167	52
111 Francis St	0.26mi	3/1.0	966 (+13%)	23mo	$127,600	$132	48
143 Stuart St	0.31mi	3/1.0	966 (+13%)	20mo	$136,500	$141	47
747 Lansing St	0.35mi	3/1.0	966 (+13%)	20mo	$159,500	$165	46
204 E Division St	0.49mi	3/1.0	920 (+7%)	23mo	$110,000	$120	46
616 Lillian St	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	902 (+5%)	16mo	$125,500	$139	46
644 Burlington St	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	756 (-12%)	19mo	$11,700	$15	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $30,007
• Equity at exit: $11,019

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $103,400
• Equity at exit: $6,390

Cash invested: $20,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,342 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$388
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,136/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $547

Break-even live

Break-even rent $649

Max offer price $73,900

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,475
• Closing costs: $2,217
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
136 N Meadow St Unit A Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	44d	1	0.70mi
311 High St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	851	$1,200	$1.41	44d	1	0.75mi
159 Mullin St Unit 2 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	44d	1	0.99mi
816 Boyd St Unit 1 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	980	$1,500	$1.53	44d	1	1.18mi
927 State St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	44d	1	1.18mi
207 Wealtha Ave Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1435	$1,500	$1.04	44d	9	1.30mi
256 Michigan Ave Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1435	$1,440	$1.00	44d	9	1.44mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-22
   historical Active Under Contract
2. 2026-01-13
   price $73,900
3. 2025-08-04
   price $74,900
4. 2025-07-22
   historical
5. 2025-05-19
   price $79,900
6. 2025-05-19
   price $149,900
7. 2025-01-06
   listed $84,900 Active
8. 2025-01-06
   listed $159,900 Active
9. 2016-09-03
   historical
10. 2015-09-10
    listed $119,000
11. 2015-08-12
    historical
12. 2015-08-12
    historical
13. 2015-01-12
    listed $69,900
14. 2015-01-12
    listed $130,000
15. 2004-08-27
    soldstatus $51,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,136 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,192 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$56/yr (+$5/mo · 5.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,140
• − Property taxes: −$1,136
• − Insurance: −$370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,289
• − Management: −$1,289
• − Depreciation: −$2,150
• Taxable income: $5,736
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,377
• After-tax cash flow: $5,193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+43.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $73,900 CNYIS
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $74,900 CNYIS
• 2025-07-22 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $149,900 CNYIS
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $79,900 CNYIS
• 2025-01-06 Listed $159,900 CNYIS
• 2025-01-06 Listed $84,900 CNYIS
• 2016-09-03 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2015-09-10 Listed $119,000 CNYIS
• 2015-08-12 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2015-08-12 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2015-01-12 Listed $130,000 CNYIS
• 2015-01-12 Listed $69,900 CNYIS
• 2004-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $51,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,136 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.