29715 El Paso St · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · Manufactured public records · 218 Days on market

Built 1980 Fair condition 0.37 ac lot $92/sqft · 29% below area Est $211k · 29% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prime corner lot in Magnolia! Fenced and gated for privacy. This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home is ready for move in, washer and dryer included. Recently built on addition, ready for you to finish out, lots of materials included. Unfinished area is 16'x56', enough room to add two bedrooms, a dining room, and a bathroom! NO RESTRICTIONS, NO HOA, LOW TAXES, NO FLOODING, PRIME LOCATION.

Key facts

• Fenced and gated
• Unfinished area
• Prime location

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FENCED AND GATED
• RECENTLY BUILT ADDITION
• UNFINISHED AREA
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $933 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.65%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,815
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -28.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29615 Abilene St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+3%)	8mo	$220,000	$131	71
29603 Temple St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,856 (+14%)	12mo	$190,000	$102	50
29606 Inverness Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+10%)	12mo	$185,000	$103	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.21×
• Total profit: $134,929
• Equity at exit: $135,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.08×
• Total profit: $339,430
• Equity at exit: $291,417

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,332 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $725/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $933

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,151

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,018	-5% $975	+0% $933	+5% $890	+10% $848
Rent	-10% $748	-5% $841	+0% $933	+5% $1,025	+10% $1,117
Rate	-1.0pp $1,008	-0.5pp $971	base $933	+0.5pp $894	+1.0pp $854

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30314 Ruby Forest Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,595	$1.57	44d	1	0.68mi
12035 Noble Wood Village DR Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1979	$2,150	$1.09	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 378-char remark

   Show marketing remark (378 chars)

   Prime corner lot in Magnolia! Fenced and gated for privacy. This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home is ready for move in, washer and dryer included. Recently built on addition, ready for you to finish out, lots of materials included. Unfinished area is 16'x56', enough room to add two bedrooms, a dining room, and a bathroom! NO RESTRICTIONS, NO HOA, LOW TAXES, NO FLOODING, PRIME LOCATION.

2. 2025-12-17
   price $150,000 378-char remark

   Show marketing remark (378 chars)

   Prime corner lot in Magnolia! Fenced and gated for privacy. This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home is ready for move in, washer and dryer included. Recently built on addition, ready for you to finish out, lots of materials included. Unfinished area is 16'x56', enough room to add two bedrooms, a dining room, and a bathroom! NO RESTRICTIONS, NO HOA, LOW TAXES, NO FLOODING, PRIME LOCATION.

3. 2025-09-27
   listed $155,000 Active 378-char remark

   Show marketing remark (378 chars)

   Prime corner lot in Magnolia! Fenced and gated for privacy. This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home is ready for move in, washer and dryer included. Recently built on addition, ready for you to finish out, lots of materials included. Unfinished area is 16'x56', enough room to add two bedrooms, a dining room, and a bathroom! NO RESTRICTIONS, NO HOA, LOW TAXES, NO FLOODING, PRIME LOCATION.

4. 2025-09-12
   soldstatus Closed 722-char remark

   Show marketing remark (722 chars)

   Calling all investors and handy homeowners! This mobile home on 16,065 sf lot offers a great opportunity to build sweat equity. The home needs extensive repairs and updates throughout, but the bones are there of a solid transformation. An unfinished addition offers extra square footage and endless possibilities-finish it out to create a spacious living area, extra bedrooms or a home office. Plenty of space for parking, gardening or even adding a workshop. With a little vision and elbow grease, this property could shine once again. Seller is motivated and ready to make a deal-bring your best offer. Don't miss your chance to turn this diamond in the rough into something special. Property is being sold as is.

5. 2025-09-01
   status Pending 722-char remark

   Show marketing remark (722 chars)

   Calling all investors and handy homeowners! This mobile home on 16,065 sf lot offers a great opportunity to build sweat equity. The home needs extensive repairs and updates throughout, but the bones are there of a solid transformation. An unfinished addition offers extra square footage and endless possibilities-finish it out to create a spacious living area, extra bedrooms or a home office. Plenty of space for parking, gardening or even adding a workshop. With a little vision and elbow grease, this property could shine once again. Seller is motivated and ready to make a deal-bring your best offer. Don't miss your chance to turn this diamond in the rough into something special. Property is being sold as is.

6. 2025-08-22
   price $150,000 722-char remark

   Show marketing remark (722 chars)

   Calling all investors and handy homeowners! This mobile home on 16,065 sf lot offers a great opportunity to build sweat equity. The home needs extensive repairs and updates throughout, but the bones are there of a solid transformation. An unfinished addition offers extra square footage and endless possibilities-finish it out to create a spacious living area, extra bedrooms or a home office. Plenty of space for parking, gardening or even adding a workshop. With a little vision and elbow grease, this property could shine once again. Seller is motivated and ready to make a deal-bring your best offer. Don't miss your chance to turn this diamond in the rough into something special. Property is being sold as is.

7. 2025-07-19
   listed $175,000 Active 722-char remark

   Show marketing remark (722 chars)

   Calling all investors and handy homeowners! This mobile home on 16,065 sf lot offers a great opportunity to build sweat equity. The home needs extensive repairs and updates throughout, but the bones are there of a solid transformation. An unfinished addition offers extra square footage and endless possibilities-finish it out to create a spacious living area, extra bedrooms or a home office. Plenty of space for parking, gardening or even adding a workshop. With a little vision and elbow grease, this property could shine once again. Seller is motivated and ready to make a deal-bring your best offer. Don't miss your chance to turn this diamond in the rough into something special. Property is being sold as is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $725 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,020/yr (+$168/mo · 278.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,983
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$725
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,239
• − Management: −$2,239
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $9,265
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,224
• After-tax cash flow: $8,969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. The home is currently in fair condition with average interior and exterior finishes. Repairs to the roof, exterior siding, interior walls, and foundation are needed to bring the home up to a good condition. Painting and minor repairs would significantly enhance its appearance and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — visible wear
• Major exterior siding — visible wear
• Major interior walls/paint — paint appears worn
• Major foundation — visible wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls and ceiling — enhances appearance and value
• Both repair and paint exterior siding — enhances appearance and value
• Both repair and paint roof — enhances appearance and value
• Both repair foundation — enhances appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · visible wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · visible wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · paint appears worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
foundation · visible wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls and ceiling — enhances appearance and value ↑
• Both repair and paint exterior siding — enhances appearance and value ↑
• Both repair and paint roof — enhances appearance and value ↑
• Both repair foundation — enhances appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-27 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-09-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-19 Listed $175,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $725 · +20.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.