CashFlowRE
Sign in Sign up
3799 Moon Hill Rd
D Composite 44.49
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • Cash flow +9.3/30.0
  • Condition / age +4.8/5.0
  • Schools +4.7/10.0
  • Livability +3.3/5.0
  • 1% rule +2.9/10.0
  • DSCR +2.6/10.0
  • Rent growth +1.9/5.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$247,999

3799 Moon Hill Rd · Marion, TX 78132
4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,692 sqft · SingleFamily · 106 Days on market
Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot 2-car garage $147/sqft · 30% below area Est $354k · 30% under $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

The Tilley - This new two-story home features a comfortable first-level owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet to create a luxurious retreat. A nearby open-concept layout provides simple transitions and multitasking. Three additional bedrooms can be found on the second floor next to a versatile and inviting loft area. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

  • Full bathroom
  • Walk-in closet
  • Versatile loft area

Tags

FIRST-LEVEL OWNER'S SUITEFULL BATHROOMWALK-IN CLOSETOPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUTVERSATILE LOFT AREA

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $248k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (10.6% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (20.8% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $196k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
  • Zoned schools: Hernandez El (math 31% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 525 students, 65% FRL); Goodnight Middle (math 9% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,536 of 1,662 statewide, top 93%, 866 students, 85% FRL); San Marcos H S (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,536 students, 76% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 1528 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 71d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($135k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer $196,364 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.79%
Cap rate
5.41%
Cash-on-cash
-3.14%
DSCR
0.86
GRM
10.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$354,392
List price
$247,999
Delta
-30.02%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
3751 Moon Hill Rd 0.00mi 4/2.5 1,692 (0%) 3mo $225,999 $134 98
3763 Moon Hill Rd 0.00mi 4/2.5 1,897 (+12%) 3mo $237,999 $125 77
3771 Moon Hill Rd 0.00mi 4/2.0 1,483 (-12%) 3mo $213,999 $144 75
3747 Moon Hill Rd 0.00mi 4/2.0 1,483 (-12%) 3mo $225,999 $152 75
918 Moonshine Ln 0.00mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,502 (-11%) 1mo $244,999 $163 73
110 Hunter Ridge Rd 0.47mi 4/2.5 1,694 (+0%) 7mo $350,000 $207 72
126 Hunter Ridge Rd 0.50mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,684 (-0%) 1mo $429,000 $255 68
215 Harmons Way 0.46mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,507 (-11%) 2mo $319,500 $212 52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-25.0%
Equity multiple
0.17×
Total profit
$-57,465
Equity at exit
$36,977
10-year hold
IRR
-33.7%
Equity multiple
-0.25×
Total profit
$-87,004
Equity at exit
$21,442

Cash invested: $69,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
22 active · 16 under contract
Months of supply
14.7 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$261,624 ($158/sqft)
Median days on market
73 d
This list price
27% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+32.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78132

Rents YoY
-2.3%
Active inventory
1528
Price-to-rent
10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,964 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,301
Tax est. 1.5%
$310 /mo · $3,720/yr
Insurance
$103
HOA
$19
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$412
Net cashflow
$-182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,194
Max offer price $221,723
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-10 -5% $-96 +0% $-182 +5% $-267 +10% $-353
Rent -10% $-337 -5% $-259 +0% $-182 +5% $-104 +10% $-26
Rate -1.0pp $-57 -0.5pp $-119 base $-182 +0.5pp $-246 +1.0pp $-311

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$62,000
Closing costs
$7,440
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 34 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
109 Harmons Way Unit 109 San Marcos, TX 3.0 3.0 1400 $1,500 $1.07 103d 1 0.35mi
318 Hunter Ridge Rd San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 1948 $2,100 $1.08 139d 1 0.70mi
4334 Transportation Way San Marcos, TX 1.0–4.0 1.0–2.0 1040 $1,515 $1.46 6d 16 0.76mi
618 El Rio St San Marcos, TX 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 992 $1,972 $1.99 0d 24 0.79mi
405 Whitetail Dr San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 1100 $1,550 $1.41 139d 1 0.83mi
405 Whitetail Dr Unit B San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 1100 $1,495 $1.36 83d 1 0.83mi
405 Whitetail Dr Unit A San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 1100 $1,495 $1.36 110d 1 0.83mi
420 El Rio St San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 1526 $1,713 $1.12 80d 1 0.87mi
425 El Rio St San Marcos, TX 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1062 $1,937 $1.82 0d 26 0.94mi
156 Edward R Gaytan St San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.5 1950 $1,995 $1.02 113d 1 0.99mi
156 Edward R Gaytan St San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.5 1950 $1,995 $1.02 139d 1 0.99mi
144 Edward R Gaytan St San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 1755 $1,975 $1.13 119d 1 1.02mi
208 Shugart St San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 1556 $1,899 $1.22 94d 1 1.13mi
139 Spiny Lizard Ln San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 1556 $1,899 $1.22 70d 1 1.16mi
204 Rollingwood Dr San Marcos, TX 4.0 2.0 2027 $2,150 $1.06 10d 1 1.21mi
145 Tortoise Trl San Marcos, TX 4.0 2.5 2196 $2,100 $0.96 139d 1 1.22mi
502 Commercial Loop San Marcos, TX 1.0–3.0 1.0–3.0 1222 $2,550 $2.09 4d 46 1.23mi
137 Rustic Glen Dr San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 1108 $1,749 $1.58 43d 1 1.26mi
1166 Esplanade Pkwy San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 1136 $1,395 $1.23 10d 1 1.33mi
1166 Esplanade Pkwy San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 1136 $1,695 $1.49 43d 1 1.33mi
1158 Esplanade Pkwy San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.5 1300 $1,750 $1.35 43d 1 1.34mi
435 Spiny Lizard Ln San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 2021 $2,150 $1.06 119d 1 1.38mi
233 William Moon Way San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.5 2102 $2,100 $1.00 56d 1 1.41mi
1121 Esplanade Pkwy San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 1424 $1,795 $1.26 40d 1 1.41mi
250 Sage Meadows Dr San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 1556 $1,950 $1.25 110d 1 1.41mi
1052 Esplanade Pkwy San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.5 1300 $1,769 $1.36 0d 1 1.43mi
249 Sage Meadows Dr San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 1462 $1,875 $1.28 10d 1 1.45mi
626 Jane Long Dr San Marcos, TX 4.0 3.0 2044 $2,000 $0.98 10d 1 1.47mi
629 Jane Long Dr San Marcos, TX 4.0 3.0 2164 $2,100 $0.97 43d 1 1.49mi
313 Merriman Rd San Marcos, TX 4.0 3.0 2164 $1,995 $0.92 10d 1 1.49mi
115 Rosa Rd San Marcos, TX 4.0 3.0 2186 $2,195 $1.00 74d 1 1.50mi
115 Rosa Rd San Marcos, TX 4.0 3.0 2164 $2,195 $1.01 68d 1 1.50mi
115 Rosa Rd San Marcos, TX 4.0 3.0 2186 $2,195 $1.00 80d 1 1.50mi
133 Camino Verde San Marcos, TX 3.0 2.0 1931 $2,600 $1.35 100d 1 1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Subdivision listed as UNKNOWN
HOA & community
Mandatory HOAHOA fee $112.50 semi-annuallyAssociation transfer fee $450

Exterior

Parking
2-car garage
Utilities
Water system (GBRA)Sewer system (SHWSC)Gas supplied by UnigasElectricity supplied by NBUGarbage service by Frontier
Home design
New construction by LennarSlab foundationComposition roof
Construction
Built as new (approximate age 0)
Exterior features
Privacy fenceCement fiber exterior

Interior

Kitchen
Kitchen approximately 10 x 11Stove/RangeDishwasher
Bedrooms
Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bathBedroom 2: 10 x 11Bedroom 3: 11 x 10Bedroom 4: 10 x 10Master bedroom dimensions: 11 x 12
Flooring
CarpetingVinyl flooring
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms1 half bathroomMaster bath with tub/shower combination and separate shower option
Heating & cooling
Central heatingElectric and natural gas heatCentral air conditioning
Interior features
Open floor planBreakfast bar1 living areaLoft (2nd level)Utility room insideCable TV availableWalk-in closets
Laundry & utility
Washer connectionDryer connection

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-25
    days on market $247,999 Active 106 DOM
  2. 2026-08-24
    days on market $247,999 Active 105 DOM
  3. 2026-08-23
    days on market $247,999 Active 104 DOM
  4. 2026-08-22
    days on market $247,999 Active 103 DOM
  5. 2026-08-21
    statusdays on market $247,999 Active 102 DOM
  6. 2026-08-20
    days on market $247,999 Price Change 101 DOM
  7. 2026-08-19
    days on market $247,999 Price Change 100 DOM
  8. 2026-08-18
    days on market $247,999 Price Change 99 DOM
  9. 2026-08-17
    days on market $247,999 Price Change 98 DOM
  10. 2026-08-16
    days on market $247,999 Price Change 97 DOM
  11. 2026-08-15
    days on market $247,999 Price Change 96 DOM
  12. 2026-08-14
    days on market $247,999 Price Change 95 DOM
  13. 2026-08-13
    days on market $247,999 Price Change 94 DOM
  14. 2026-08-11
    days on market $247,999 Price Change 92 DOM
  15. 2026-08-10
    price $247,999 Price Change 91 DOM
  16. 2026-08-10
    days on market $248,999 Price Change 91 DOM
  17. 2026-08-09
    days on market $248,999 Price Change 90 DOM
  18. 2026-08-08
    days on market $248,999 Price Change 89 DOM
  19. 2026-08-06
    days on market $248,999 Price Change 87 DOM
  20. 2026-08-05
    days on market $248,999 Price Change 86 DOM
  21. 2026-08-04
    days on market $248,999 Price Change 85 DOM
  22. 2026-08-03
    pricestatusdays on market $248,999 Price Change 84 DOM
  23. 2026-07-31
    days on market $250,999 Active 81 DOM
  24. 2026-07-30
    days on market $250,999 Active 79 DOM
  25. 2026-07-28
    days on market $250,999 Active 78 DOM
  26. 2026-07-26
    days on market $250,999 Active 76 DOM
  27. 2026-07-24
    days on market $250,999 Active 74 DOM
  28. 2026-07-23
    days on market $250,999 Active 73 DOM
  29. 2026-07-22
    days on market $250,999 Active 72 DOM
  30. 2026-07-21
    days on market $250,999 Active 71 DOM
  31. 2026-07-20
    days on market $250,999 Active 70 DOM
  32. 2026-07-18
    statusdays on market $250,999 Active 68 DOM
  33. 2026-07-18
    days on market $250,999 Price Change 67 DOM
  34. 2026-07-16
    days on market $250,999 Price Change 66 DOM
  35. 2026-07-15
    days on market $250,999 Price Change 65 DOM
  36. 2026-07-14
    days on market $250,999 Price Change 64 DOM
  37. 2026-07-13
    days on market $250,999 Price Change 63 DOM
  38. 2026-07-13
    days on market $250,999 Price Change 62 DOM
  39. 2026-07-11
    days on market $250,999 Price Change 61 DOM
  40. 2026-07-10
    days on market $250,999 Price Change 60 DOM
  41. 2026-07-09
    days on market $250,999 Price Change 59 DOM
  42. 2026-07-08
    pricestatus $250,999 Price Change 57 DOM
  43. 2026-07-07
    days on market $249,999 Active 57 DOM
  44. 2026-07-06
    days on market $249,999 Active 56 DOM
  45. 2026-07-05
    days on market $249,999 Active 55 DOM
  46. 2026-07-03
    days on market $249,999 Active 53 DOM
  47. 2026-07-02
    days on market $249,999 Active 52 DOM
  48. 2026-07-01
    days on market $249,999 Active 51 DOM
  49. 2026-06-30
    days on market $249,999 Active 50 DOM
  50. 2026-06-29
    days on market $249,999 Active 49 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$23,564
− Mortgage interest
−$13,892
− Property taxes
−$3,720
− Insurance
−$1,240
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,885
− Management
−$1,885
− HOA
−$228
− Depreciation
−$7,215
Taxable loss
−$6,501
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,560
After-tax cash flow
$-619/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 27 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This new two-story home is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern finishes. It offers a luxurious owner's suite, an open-concept layout, and three additional bedrooms on the second floor. The home is set to be completed in July 2026 and is expected to be a great investment.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
  • Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and adds value
  • Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and attracts potential buyers
F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Norma Krueger El/bert Karrer Campus D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Marion Middle F TX #613/1,662 Nat'l #5,727/14,009 High Marion H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
San Marcos CISD
NCES district ID
4838970
Math proficiency
18% ▼ -16.00%
Reading proficiency
31% ▼ -8.00%
Median HH income
$34,538
Composite
20.11/100
National rank
#8644
State rank
#731 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Marion

Score
66/100
State rank
#614
US rank
#11619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Comal County · 286,948 people
Metro
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Population (ZIP)
40,953
Household income
$135,315
Rent vs Own
12.5% rent · 87.5% own
Severe rent burden
5% of renters

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
286,948 people
By 2030
336,923 · +17.4%
By 2040
441,894 · +54.0%
By 2050
553,462 · +92.9%
By 2075
838,261 · +192.1%
By 2100
1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (71%)
Race & ethnicity
White 71% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 13% Black 2% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry
Slovak 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
Foreign-born
6% · Canada
Languages at home
89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

2024 margin
Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
2008→2024 swing
+7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
All cycles
2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-0.8% since first listed
2 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-21 Price Changed $249,999 LERA
  • 2026-05-11 Listed $251,999 LERA

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…