3799 Moon Hill Rd · Marion, TX
Flood risk No data
- FEMA flood zone
- —
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- —
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- —
Fire risk No data
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- —
Heat risk No data
- Hot days now (above threshold)
- —
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- —
Wind risk No data
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk No data
- Unhealthy air days now
- —
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- —
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- Cash flow +9.3/30.0
- Condition / age +4.8/5.0
- Schools +4.7/10.0
- Livability +3.3/5.0
- 1% rule +2.9/10.0
- DSCR +2.6/10.0
- Rent growth +1.9/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$247,999
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
The Tilley - This new two-story home features a comfortable first-level owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet to create a luxurious retreat. A nearby open-concept layout provides simple transitions and multitasking. Three additional bedrooms can be found on the second floor next to a versatile and inviting loft area. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.
Key facts
- Full bathroom
- Walk-in closet
- Versatile loft area
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $248k. Condition is rated excellent.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (10.6% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (20.8% below list).
- Recommended offer: $196k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
- San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Zoned schools: Hernandez El (math 31% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 525 students, 65% FRL); Goodnight Middle (math 9% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,536 of 1,662 statewide, top 93%, 866 students, 85% FRL); San Marcos H S (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,536 students, 76% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 1528 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 71d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($135k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.79% ✗
- Cap rate
- 5.41%
- Cash-on-cash
- -3.14%
- DSCR
- 0.86
- GRM
- 10.5
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $354,392
- List price
- $247,999
- Delta
- -30.02%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3751 Moon Hill Rd | 0.00mi | 4/2.5 | 1,692 (0%) | 3mo | $225,999 | $134 | 98 |
| 3763 Moon Hill Rd | 0.00mi | 4/2.5 | 1,897 (+12%) | 3mo | $237,999 | $125 | 77 |
| 3771 Moon Hill Rd | 0.00mi | 4/2.0 | 1,483 (-12%) | 3mo | $213,999 | $144 | 75 |
| 3747 Moon Hill Rd | 0.00mi | 4/2.0 | 1,483 (-12%) | 3mo | $225,999 | $152 | 75 |
| 918 Moonshine Ln | 0.00mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,502 (-11%) | 1mo | $244,999 | $163 | 73 |
| 110 Hunter Ridge Rd | 0.47mi | 4/2.5 | 1,694 (+0%) | 7mo | $350,000 | $207 | 72 |
| 126 Hunter Ridge Rd | 0.50mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,684 (-0%) | 1mo | $429,000 | $255 | 68 |
| 215 Harmons Way | 0.46mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,507 (-11%) | 2mo | $319,500 | $212 | 52 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -25.0%
- Equity multiple
- 0.17×
- Total profit
- $-57,465
- Equity at exit
- $36,977
- IRR
- -33.7%
- Equity multiple
- -0.25×
- Total profit
- $-87,004
- Equity at exit
- $21,442
Cash invested: $69,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 22 active · 16 under contract
- Months of supply
- 14.7 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $261,624 ($158/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 73 d
- This list price
- 27% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +32.8% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 78132
- Rents YoY
- -2.3%
- Active inventory
- 1528
- Price-to-rent
- 10.5×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,964 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,301
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$310 /mo · $3,720/yr
- Insurance
- −$103
- HOA
- −$19
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$412
- Net cashflow
- $-182
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-10 | -5% $-96 | +0% $-182 | +5% $-267 | +10% $-353 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-337 | -5% $-259 | +0% $-182 | +5% $-104 | +10% $-26 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-57 | -0.5pp $-119 | base $-182 | +0.5pp $-246 | +1.0pp $-311 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $62,000
- Closing costs
- $7,440
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 34 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 109 Harmons Way Unit 109 San Marcos, TX | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1400 | $1,500 | $1.07 | 103d | 1 | 0.35mi |
| 318 Hunter Ridge Rd San Marcos, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1948 | $2,100 | $1.08 | 139d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 4334 Transportation Way San Marcos, TX | 1.0–4.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1040 | $1,515 | $1.46 | 6d | 16 | 0.76mi |
| 618 El Rio St San Marcos, TX | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 992 | $1,972 | $1.99 | 0d | 24 | 0.79mi |
| 405 Whitetail Dr San Marcos, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1100 | $1,550 | $1.41 | 139d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 405 Whitetail Dr Unit B San Marcos, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1100 | $1,495 | $1.36 | 83d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 405 Whitetail Dr Unit A San Marcos, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1100 | $1,495 | $1.36 | 110d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 420 El Rio St San Marcos, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1526 | $1,713 | $1.12 | 80d | 1 | 0.87mi |
| 425 El Rio St San Marcos, TX | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1062 | $1,937 | $1.82 | 0d | 26 | 0.94mi |
| 156 Edward R Gaytan St San Marcos, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1950 | $1,995 | $1.02 | 113d | 1 | 0.99mi |
| 156 Edward R Gaytan St San Marcos, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1950 | $1,995 | $1.02 | 139d | 1 | 0.99mi |
| 144 Edward R Gaytan St San Marcos, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1755 | $1,975 | $1.13 | 119d | 1 | 1.02mi |
| 208 Shugart St San Marcos, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1556 | $1,899 | $1.22 | 94d | 1 | 1.13mi |
| 139 Spiny Lizard Ln San Marcos, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1556 | $1,899 | $1.22 | 70d | 1 | 1.16mi |
| 204 Rollingwood Dr San Marcos, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2027 | $2,150 | $1.06 | 10d | 1 | 1.21mi |
| 145 Tortoise Trl San Marcos, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2196 | $2,100 | $0.96 | 139d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 502 Commercial Loop San Marcos, TX | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–3.0 | 1222 | $2,550 | $2.09 | 4d | 46 | 1.23mi |
| 137 Rustic Glen Dr San Marcos, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1108 | $1,749 | $1.58 | 43d | 1 | 1.26mi |
| 1166 Esplanade Pkwy San Marcos, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1136 | $1,395 | $1.23 | 10d | 1 | 1.33mi |
| 1166 Esplanade Pkwy San Marcos, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1136 | $1,695 | $1.49 | 43d | 1 | 1.33mi |
| 1158 Esplanade Pkwy San Marcos, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1300 | $1,750 | $1.35 | 43d | 1 | 1.34mi |
| 435 Spiny Lizard Ln San Marcos, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2021 | $2,150 | $1.06 | 119d | 1 | 1.38mi |
| 233 William Moon Way San Marcos, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2102 | $2,100 | $1.00 | 56d | 1 | 1.41mi |
| 1121 Esplanade Pkwy San Marcos, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1424 | $1,795 | $1.26 | 40d | 1 | 1.41mi |
| 250 Sage Meadows Dr San Marcos, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1556 | $1,950 | $1.25 | 110d | 1 | 1.41mi |
| 1052 Esplanade Pkwy San Marcos, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1300 | $1,769 | $1.36 | 0d | 1 | 1.43mi |
| 249 Sage Meadows Dr San Marcos, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1462 | $1,875 | $1.28 | 10d | 1 | 1.45mi |
| 626 Jane Long Dr San Marcos, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2044 | $2,000 | $0.98 | 10d | 1 | 1.47mi |
| 629 Jane Long Dr San Marcos, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2164 | $2,100 | $0.97 | 43d | 1 | 1.49mi |
| 313 Merriman Rd San Marcos, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2164 | $1,995 | $0.92 | 10d | 1 | 1.49mi |
| 115 Rosa Rd San Marcos, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2186 | $2,195 | $1.00 | 74d | 1 | 1.50mi |
| 115 Rosa Rd San Marcos, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2164 | $2,195 | $1.01 | 68d | 1 | 1.50mi |
| 115 Rosa Rd San Marcos, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2186 | $2,195 | $1.00 | 80d | 1 | 1.50mi |
| 133 Camino Verde San Marcos, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1931 | $2,600 | $1.35 | 100d | 1 | 1.50mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Subdivision listed as UNKNOWN
- HOA & community
- Mandatory HOAHOA fee $112.50 semi-annuallyAssociation transfer fee $450
Exterior
- Parking
- 2-car garage
- Utilities
- Water system (GBRA)Sewer system (SHWSC)Gas supplied by UnigasElectricity supplied by NBUGarbage service by Frontier
- Home design
- New construction by LennarSlab foundationComposition roof
- Construction
- Built as new (approximate age 0)
- Exterior features
- Privacy fenceCement fiber exterior
Interior
- Kitchen
- Kitchen approximately 10 x 11Stove/RangeDishwasher
- Bedrooms
- Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bathBedroom 2: 10 x 11Bedroom 3: 11 x 10Bedroom 4: 10 x 10Master bedroom dimensions: 11 x 12
- Flooring
- CarpetingVinyl flooring
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroomMaster bath with tub/shower combination and separate shower option
- Heating & cooling
- Central heatingElectric and natural gas heatCentral air conditioning
- Interior features
- Open floor planBreakfast bar1 living areaLoft (2nd level)Utility room insideCable TV availableWalk-in closets
- Laundry & utility
- Washer connectionDryer connection
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-25days on market $247,999 Active 106 DOM
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2026-08-24days on market $247,999 Active 105 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $247,999 Active 104 DOM
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2026-08-22days on market $247,999 Active 103 DOM
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2026-08-21statusdays on market $247,999 Active 102 DOM
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2026-08-20days on market $247,999 Price Change 101 DOM
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2026-08-19days on market $247,999 Price Change 100 DOM
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2026-08-18days on market $247,999 Price Change 99 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $247,999 Price Change 98 DOM
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2026-08-16days on market $247,999 Price Change 97 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $247,999 Price Change 96 DOM
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2026-08-14days on market $247,999 Price Change 95 DOM
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2026-08-13days on market $247,999 Price Change 94 DOM
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2026-08-11days on market $247,999 Price Change 92 DOM
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2026-08-10price $247,999 Price Change 91 DOM
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2026-08-10days on market $248,999 Price Change 91 DOM
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2026-08-09days on market $248,999 Price Change 90 DOM
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2026-08-08days on market $248,999 Price Change 89 DOM
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2026-08-06days on market $248,999 Price Change 87 DOM
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2026-08-05days on market $248,999 Price Change 86 DOM
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2026-08-04days on market $248,999 Price Change 85 DOM
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2026-08-03pricestatusdays on market $248,999 Price Change 84 DOM
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2026-07-31days on market $250,999 Active 81 DOM
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2026-07-30days on market $250,999 Active 79 DOM
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2026-07-28days on market $250,999 Active 78 DOM
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2026-07-26days on market $250,999 Active 76 DOM
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2026-07-24days on market $250,999 Active 74 DOM
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2026-07-23days on market $250,999 Active 73 DOM
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2026-07-22days on market $250,999 Active 72 DOM
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2026-07-21days on market $250,999 Active 71 DOM
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2026-07-20days on market $250,999 Active 70 DOM
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2026-07-18statusdays on market $250,999 Active 68 DOM
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2026-07-18days on market $250,999 Price Change 67 DOM
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2026-07-16days on market $250,999 Price Change 66 DOM
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2026-07-15days on market $250,999 Price Change 65 DOM
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2026-07-14days on market $250,999 Price Change 64 DOM
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2026-07-13days on market $250,999 Price Change 63 DOM
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2026-07-13days on market $250,999 Price Change 62 DOM
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2026-07-11days on market $250,999 Price Change 61 DOM
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2026-07-10days on market $250,999 Price Change 60 DOM
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2026-07-09days on market $250,999 Price Change 59 DOM
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2026-07-08pricestatus $250,999 Price Change 57 DOM
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2026-07-07days on market $249,999 Active 57 DOM
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2026-07-06days on market $249,999 Active 56 DOM
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2026-07-05days on market $249,999 Active 55 DOM
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2026-07-03days on market $249,999 Active 53 DOM
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2026-07-02days on market $249,999 Active 52 DOM
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2026-07-01days on market $249,999 Active 51 DOM
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2026-06-30days on market $249,999 Active 50 DOM
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2026-06-29days on market $249,999 Active 49 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $23,564
- − Mortgage interest
- −$13,892
- − Property taxes
- −$3,720
- − Insurance
- −$1,240
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,885
- − Management
- −$1,885
- − HOA
- −$228
- − Depreciation
- −$7,215
- Taxable loss
- −$6,501
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$1,560
- After-tax cash flow
- $-619/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 27 photos
This new two-story home is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern finishes. It offers a luxurious owner's suite, an open-concept layout, and three additional bedrooms on the second floor. The home is set to be completed in July 2026 and is expected to be a great investment.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
- Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
- Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and attracts potential buyers ↑
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- San Marcos CISD
- NCES district ID
- 4838970
- Math proficiency
- 18% ▼ -16.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 31% ▼ -8.00%
- Median HH income
- $34,538
- Composite
- 20.11/100
- National rank
- #8644
- State rank
- #731 of 826 in TX
Livability — Marion
- Score
- 66/100
- State rank
- #614
- US rank
- #11619
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Comal County · 286,948 people
- Metro
- San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 40,953
- Household income
- $135,315
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 5% of renters
Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 286,948 people
- By 2030
- 336,923 · +17.4%
- By 2040
- 441,894 · +54.0%
- By 2050
- 553,462 · +92.9%
- By 2075
- 838,261 · +192.1%
- By 2100
- 1,063,658 · +270.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (71%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 71% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 13% Black 2% Asian 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
- Foreign-born
- 6% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Hays
- 2024 margin
- Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -139.57%
- Current HPI
- 202.432
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -2.32%
- Metro
- San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
|
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| Technology | 5 | $198B |
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| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
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| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
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| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
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| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
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Price history
-0.8% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-21 Price Changed $249,999 LERA
- 2026-05-11 Listed $251,999 LERA
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…