605 Red Feather Trl · Country Lake Estates, NJ 08015

$249,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1978 9,596 sqft lot $171/sqft · 28% below area Est $349k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-Bedroom Colonial in Desirable Country Lakes Opportunity awaits in this classic 3-bedroom, 1-bath Colonial located in the highly sought-after Country Lakes community. Featuring a traditional layout with a spacious living room, separate family room, and an eat-in kitchen, this home offers great bones and endless potential. With a little TLC, this property can truly shine — perfect for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to customize their dream home. Generous living spaces provide flexibility for everyday living and entertaining. Situated in a desirable neighborhood known for its peaceful setting and community appeal, this is your chance to add value and make it your own. Don’t miss this opportunity to transform a solid home into something special!

Key facts

• 9,596 sq ft lot
• Built 1978
• Listed 75 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $235k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#475 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pemberton Township School District (rural): math 12% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #382 of 472 in NJ (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $250k implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.55%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,714
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -28.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
46 Tecumseh Trl	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,564 (+7%)	0mo	$361,000	$231	78
100 Split Rock Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,464 (0%)	2mo	$440,000	$301	76
26 Cherokee Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-9%)	1mo	$355,000	$267	76
2 Topeka Ln	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,376 (-6%)	1mo	$417,105	$303	68
211 Mohawk Trl	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,552 (+6%)	2mo	$322,500	$208	65
206 Iriquois	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+7%)	10mo	$355,000	$226	60
301 Tecumseh Trl	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,660 (+13%)	3mo	$430,000	$259	55
301 Cherokee Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,600 (+9%)	1mo	$350,000	$219	52
2 Coosa Trl	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,256 (-14%)	2mo	$303,888	$242	50
1714 Red Feather Trl	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,576 (+8%)	7mo	$340,000	$216	44
304 Seminole Trl	0.50mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,584 (+8%)	11mo	$440,000	$278	43
1710 Red Feather Trl	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,606 (+10%)	4mo	$425,000	$265	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-19,770
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $9,792
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08015

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,749 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$433 /mo · $5,202/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$577
• Net cashflow: $324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,339

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $465	-5% $394	+0% $324	+5% $253	+10% $182
Rent	-10% $106	-5% $215	+0% $324	+5% $432	+10% $541
Rate	-1.0pp $449	-0.5pp $387	base $324	+0.5pp $259	+1.0pp $193

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
307 Algonquin Trl Browns Mills, NJ	3.0	2.0	1062	$2,300	$2.17	0d	1	0.04mi
200 Algonquin Trl Browns Mills, NJ	3.0	1.0	1544	$3,295	$2.13	0d	1	0.12mi
204 Cheyenne Trl Browns Mills, NJ	3.0	1.0	1176	$2,675	$2.27	18d	1	0.21mi
2 Coosa Trl Browns Mills, NJ	3.0	1.0	1256	$2,375	$1.89	11d	1	0.54mi
9 Piegan Ln Browns Mills, NJ	3.0	1.0	1460	$2,550	$1.75	3d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Active 784-char remark

   Show marketing remark (784 chars)

   Charming 3-Bedroom Colonial in Desirable Country Lakes Opportunity awaits in this classic 3-bedroom, 1-bath Colonial located in the highly sought-after Country Lakes community. Featuring a traditional layout with a spacious living room, separate family room, and an eat-in kitchen, this home offers great bones and endless potential. With a little TLC, this property can truly shine — perfect for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to customize their dream home. Generous living spaces provide flexibility for everyday living and entertaining. Situated in a desirable neighborhood known for its peaceful setting and community appeal, this is your chance to add value and make it your own. Don’t miss this opportunity to transform a solid home into something special!

2. 2026-04-02
   historical 784-char remark

   Show marketing remark (784 chars)

   Charming 3-Bedroom Colonial in Desirable Country Lakes Opportunity awaits in this classic 3-bedroom, 1-bath Colonial located in the highly sought-after Country Lakes community. Featuring a traditional layout with a spacious living room, separate family room, and an eat-in kitchen, this home offers great bones and endless potential. With a little TLC, this property can truly shine — perfect for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to customize their dream home. Generous living spaces provide flexibility for everyday living and entertaining. Situated in a desirable neighborhood known for its peaceful setting and community appeal, this is your chance to add value and make it your own. Don’t miss this opportunity to transform a solid home into something special!

3. 2026-03-03
   listed $249,900 Active 784-char remark

   Show marketing remark (784 chars)

   Charming 3-Bedroom Colonial in Desirable Country Lakes Opportunity awaits in this classic 3-bedroom, 1-bath Colonial located in the highly sought-after Country Lakes community. Featuring a traditional layout with a spacious living room, separate family room, and an eat-in kitchen, this home offers great bones and endless potential. With a little TLC, this property can truly shine — perfect for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to customize their dream home. Generous living spaces provide flexibility for everyday living and entertaining. Situated in a desirable neighborhood known for its peaceful setting and community appeal, this is your chance to add value and make it your own. Don’t miss this opportunity to transform a solid home into something special!

4. 1995-11-01
   soldstatus $97,500
5. 1987-05-28
   soldstatus $72,900
6. 1983-01-01
   soldstatus $45,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,202 · $433/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,712 · $476/mo
• Expected delta: +$510/yr (+$43/mo · 9.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 59% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,987
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$5,202
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,639
• − Management: −$2,639
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$10
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2
• After-tax cash flow: $3,885/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pemberton Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3412810
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,951
• Composite: 23.0/100
• National rank: #7979
• State rank: #382 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Country Lake Estates

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #475
• US rank: #18403

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Country Lake Estates, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 19,143

Population outlook (Burlington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 453,425 people
• By 2030: 452,359 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 445,033 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 431,760 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 406,277 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 364,732 · -19.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 13% Two or more races 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burlington

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.6% · R 41.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+19.5 2016: D+14.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.84%
• Current HPI: 329.1731
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+450.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $249,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1995-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $97,500 Public Records
• 1987-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $72,900 Public Records
• 1983-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,202 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.