1646 Walnut Blvd · Ashtabula, OH 44004

$244,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1910 4,800 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller has received multiple offers, all offers with Highest and Best terms are due by 10am 7/14/2022. In search of a move-in ready home within a short distance of the Historic Ashtabula Harbor? Here is one for you! 3 bedrooms, 1 and a half bathrooms with many updates made recently! The open concept of the main floor is optimal for entertaining. Have the benefit of the recently renovated kitchen complete with all new cabinets, appliances, tile backsplash and engineered hardware throughout the main living areas. The recent enhancements were also carried out in both bathrooms. All new cabinets, tile on the floors, backsplashes and shower surround. Have peace of mind knowing the furnace and central air was brand new in 2021. Additionally, and not to be left out. . enjoy lake views from the comfort of your home, the main bedroom having the best view. Take pleasure in the lake breeze on your large covered front porch, then make your way around the side of the home along the recently paved sid

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Lake views
• Fenced in backyard

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FENCED IN BACKYARD
• PAVED WALKWAY
• PRIVATE DRIVE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story home; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Built (year source: appraiser); Asphalt fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 8 rooms (bedrooms and living spaces combined)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $245k).
• Recommended offer: $241k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 8.2% in Ashtabula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#420 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ashtabula Area City (town): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #588 of 656 in OH (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 162 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 155 units permitted in Ashtabula County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,349/mo this rent would consume 81% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ashtabula County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $241,226 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.68%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $151,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1712 W 6th St	0.26mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,348 (+2%)	2mo	$155,000	$115	78
1811 W 6th St	0.26mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,248 (-6%)	4mo	$125,000	$100	70
415 Pennsylvania Ave E	0.18mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,400 (+6%)	11mo	$179,900	$129	66
1636 W 8th St	0.36mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,280 (-3%)	10mo	$112,000	$88	63
1821 W 8th St	0.37mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,234 (-6%)	5mo	$118,000	$96	61
1833 W 7th St	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (-7%)	8mo	$178,000	$144	60
608 Lyndon Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,362 (+3%)	11mo	$185,000	$136	58
1307 W 9th St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,170 (-11%)	4mo	$56,999	$49	53
1825 W 8th St	0.37mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (-9%)	13mo	$105,000	$88	51
2103 W 10th St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (-4%)	10mo	$195,500	$155	47
920 Ohio Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,431 (+8%)	10mo	$202,000	$141	46
1923 W 11th St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,493 (+13%)	6mo	$82,000	$55	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $28,280
• Equity at exit: $36,515

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $112,085
• Equity at exit: $21,174

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44004

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,349 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,302/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$703
• Net cashflow: $1,067

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,998

Max offer price $244,900

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1115 Myrtle Ave Ashtabula, OH	3.0	1.5	1184	$1,600	$1.35	43d	1	0.76mi
1036 Union Ave Unit 1496086P Ashtabula, OH	3.0	1.0	1496	$5,341	$3.57	43d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-05-11
   historical Contingent
2. 2026-05-09
   listed $244,900 Active
3. 2022-08-12
   soldstatus $220,000
4. 2022-08-11
   soldstatus $220,000 Closed 1002-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1002 chars)

   Seller has received multiple offers, all offers with Highest and Best terms are due by 10am 7/14/2022. In search of a move-in ready home within a short distance of the Historic Ashtabula Harbor? Here is one for you! 3 bedrooms, 1 and a half bathrooms with many updates made recently! The open concept of the main floor is optimal for entertaining. Have the benefit of the recently renovated kitchen complete with all new cabinets, appliances, tile backsplash and engineered hardware throughout the main living areas. The recent enhancements were also carried out in both bathrooms. All new cabinets, tile on the floors, backsplashes and shower surround. Have peace of mind knowing the furnace and central air was brand new in 2021. Additionally, and not to be left out. . enjoy lake views from the comfort of your home, the main bedroom having the best view. Take pleasure in the lake breeze on your large covered front porch, then make your way around the side of the home along the recently paved sid

5. 2022-07-15
   status Pending 1002-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1002 chars)

   Seller has received multiple offers, all offers with Highest and Best terms are due by 10am 7/14/2022. In search of a move-in ready home within a short distance of the Historic Ashtabula Harbor? Here is one for you! 3 bedrooms, 1 and a half bathrooms with many updates made recently! The open concept of the main floor is optimal for entertaining. Have the benefit of the recently renovated kitchen complete with all new cabinets, appliances, tile backsplash and engineered hardware throughout the main living areas. The recent enhancements were also carried out in both bathrooms. All new cabinets, tile on the floors, backsplashes and shower surround. Have peace of mind knowing the furnace and central air was brand new in 2021. Additionally, and not to be left out. . enjoy lake views from the comfort of your home, the main bedroom having the best view. Take pleasure in the lake breeze on your large covered front porch, then make your way around the side of the home along the recently paved sid

6. 2022-07-08
   listed $199,900 Active 1002-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1002 chars)

   Seller has received multiple offers, all offers with Highest and Best terms are due by 10am 7/14/2022. In search of a move-in ready home within a short distance of the Historic Ashtabula Harbor? Here is one for you! 3 bedrooms, 1 and a half bathrooms with many updates made recently! The open concept of the main floor is optimal for entertaining. Have the benefit of the recently renovated kitchen complete with all new cabinets, appliances, tile backsplash and engineered hardware throughout the main living areas. The recent enhancements were also carried out in both bathrooms. All new cabinets, tile on the floors, backsplashes and shower surround. Have peace of mind knowing the furnace and central air was brand new in 2021. Additionally, and not to be left out. . enjoy lake views from the comfort of your home, the main bedroom having the best view. Take pleasure in the lake breeze on your large covered front porch, then make your way around the side of the home along the recently paved sid

7. 2021-04-26
   soldstatus $168,000 Closed 612-char remark

   Show marketing remark (612 chars)

   Check out the gorgeous newly renovated Ashtabula Harbor Colonial! Enjoy the amazing Lake Erie views from the comfort of your large covered front porch. Parking access located on private drive behind house, off of W. 3rd St. There is a fenced in backyard with a shed for storage. Open concept kitchen, dining and living room with clear sight lines of the Lake as well as amazing Lake views from the master bedroom. There is a half bath on the first floor as well as first floor laundry. This property is truly a must see! Professional photos are being taken this week, call today to schedule your private showing!

8. 2021-04-26
   soldstatus $168,000

   Show marketing remark (612 chars)

   Check out the gorgeous newly renovated Ashtabula Harbor Colonial! Enjoy the amazing Lake Erie views from the comfort of your large covered front porch. Parking access located on private drive behind house, off of W. 3rd St. There is a fenced in backyard with a shed for storage. Open concept kitchen, dining and living room with clear sight lines of the Lake as well as amazing Lake views from the master bedroom. There is a half bath on the first floor as well as first floor laundry. This property is truly a must see! Professional photos are being taken this week, call today to schedule your private showing!

9. 2021-03-23
   historical Contingent 612-char remark

   Show marketing remark (612 chars)

   Check out the gorgeous newly renovated Ashtabula Harbor Colonial! Enjoy the amazing Lake Erie views from the comfort of your large covered front porch. Parking access located on private drive behind house, off of W. 3rd St. There is a fenced in backyard with a shed for storage. Open concept kitchen, dining and living room with clear sight lines of the Lake as well as amazing Lake views from the master bedroom. There is a half bath on the first floor as well as first floor laundry. This property is truly a must see! Professional photos are being taken this week, call today to schedule your private showing!

10. 2021-03-06
    listed $179,900 Active 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Check out the gorgeous newly renovated Ashtabula Harbor Colonial! Enjoy the amazing Lake Erie views from the comfort of your large covered front porch. Parking access located on private drive behind house, off of W. 3rd St. There is a fenced in backyard with a shed for storage. Open concept kitchen, dining and living room with clear sight lines of the Lake as well as amazing Lake views from the master bedroom. There is a half bath on the first floor as well as first floor laundry. This property is truly a must see! Professional photos are being taken this week, call today to schedule your private showing!

11. 2019-06-14
    soldstatus $20,000 Closed
12. 2019-06-13
    status Pending
13. 2019-05-23
    status Pending
14. 2019-05-07
    status Active
15. 2019-04-01
    historical Contingent
16. 2019-03-28
    listed $34,500 Active
17. 2016-12-01
    historical
18. 2016-09-27
    price $44,000
19. 2016-04-01
    listed $48,000 Active
20. 2015-12-31
    historical
21. 2015-09-14
    price $49,900
22. 2015-07-10
    listed $59,900 Active
23. 1999-05-26
    soldstatus $48,000
24. 1999-05-21
    soldstatus $48,000
25. 1999-02-04
    listed $56,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,302 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,061 · $255/mo
• Expected delta: +$759/yr (+$63/mo · 33.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$2,302
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,215
• − Management: −$3,215
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable income: $9,387
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,253
• After-tax cash flow: $10,556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ashtabula Area City
• NCES district ID: 3904351
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $34,812
• Composite: 24.3/100
• National rank: #7712
• State rank: #588 of 656 in OH

Livability — Ashtabula

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #6883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ashtabula, OH
• County: Ashtabula · 97,617 people
• City population: 31,076
• Metro: Cleveland, OH
• Population (ZIP): 31,076
• Household income: $49,507
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 14.1

Population outlook (Ashtabula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,950 people
• By 2030: 89,146 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 80,715 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 72,270 · -22.2%
• By 2075: 55,780 · -40.0%
• By 2100: 40,928 · -56.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Ashtabula

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.4% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.9pp toward R · 2008: 13.5pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+23.5 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.51%
• Current HPI: 260.7146
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+330.4% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2026-05-09 Listed $244,900 MLSNOW
• 2022-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-11 Sold (MLS) $220,000 MLSNOW
• 2022-07-15 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2022-07-08 Listed $199,900 MLSNOW
• 2021-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $168,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-26 Sold (MLS) $168,000 MLSNOW
• 2021-03-23 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2021-03-06 Listed $179,900 MLSNOW
• 2019-06-14 Sold (MLS) $20,000 MLSNOW
• 2019-06-13 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2019-05-23 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2019-05-07 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2019-04-01 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2019-03-28 Listed $34,500 MLSNOW
• 2016-12-01 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2016-09-27 Price Changed $44,000 MLSNOW
• 2016-04-01 Listed $48,000 MLSNOW
• 2015-12-31 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2015-09-14 Price Changed $49,900 MLSNOW
• 2015-07-10 Listed $59,900 MLSNOW
• 1999-05-26 Sold (MLS) $48,000 MLSNOW
• 1999-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 1999-02-04 Listed $56,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,302 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.