298 County Road 5633 · Castroville, TX 78009

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1999 $101/sqft · 30% below area Est $179k · 30% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment Opportunity on 3/4 Acre in Castroville! Located at 298 County Road 5633 in the Alsatian Heights community, this double-wide mobile home sits on approximately 0.75 acres, offering space, flexibility, and potential for the right buyer. The property features recent repairs in the kitchen, living room, pantry, and second bathroom, giving a head start on improvements already underway. Most of the remaining renovation work is concentrated in the primary bathroom and closet, where flooring will need repair. Situated within Alsatian Heights HOA, the neighborhood maintains minimal restrictions. Home must be entered with caution due to areas of damaged flooring. This property offers a great opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to create their own vision on a spacious lot just outside Castroville.

Key facts

• 3/4 acre
• Recent repairs
• Spacious lot

Tags

• 3/4 ACRE
• DOUBLE-WIDE MOBILE HOME
• RECENT REPAIRS
• ALSATIAN HEIGHTS COMMUNITY
• MINIMAL RESTRICTIONS
• SPACIOUS LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $447 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 2.9% in Castroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 440 active listings in the ZIP; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.33%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,886
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -30.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
206 County Road 5601	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (+4%)	12mo	$149,978	$117	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $8,185
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $43,664
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78009

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,549 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $709/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $447

Break-even live

Break-even rent $983

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $518	-5% $482	+0% $447	+5% $412	+10% $376
Rent	-10% $325	-5% $386	+0% $447	+5% $508	+10% $569
Rate	-1.0pp $510	-0.5pp $479	base $447	+0.5pp $415	+1.0pp $382

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-03-15
    listed $125,000 New 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Investment Opportunity on 3/4 Acre in Castroville! Located at 298 County Road 5633 in the Alsatian Heights community, this double-wide mobile home sits on approximately 0.75 acres, offering space, flexibility, and potential for the right buyer. The property features recent repairs in the kitchen, living room, pantry, and second bathroom, giving a head start on improvements already underway. Most of the remaining renovation work is concentrated in the primary bathroom and closet, where flooring will need repair. Situated within Alsatian Heights HOA, the neighborhood maintains minimal restrictions. Home must be entered with caution due to areas of damaged flooring. This property offers a great opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to create their own vision on a spacious lot just outside Castroville.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $709 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,578/yr (+$132/mo · 222.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$709
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,487
• − Management: −$1,487
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $3,521
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$845
• After-tax cash flow: $4,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — Castroville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #5267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,494

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 37% Two or more races 29% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Albanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.81%
• Current HPI: 212.1813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Listed $125,000 LERA

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $709 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.