20589 E Larry Ln · Cordes Lakes, AZ 86333

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 33 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1972 8,802 sqft lot Est $239k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully remodeled double-wide manufactured home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and situated on a spacious .20 acre fully fenced lot. Thoughtfully updated with a warm boho-inspired touch, this home blends modern comfort with inviting charm. Inside, you will find gorgeous new flooring throughout, a beautifully remodeled kitchen, and stylish updated bathroom designed with both function and flair in mind. The open and airy layout creates the perfect space for relaxing or entertaining, while all appliances convey for an easy move-in experience. Enjoy the privacy and versatility of the fully fenced yard with plenty of room for pets, gardening, or outdoor gatherings. This turnkey home is full of character and ready for it's new owners to enjoy. Located just 1 mile from I17 with easy access to Prescott, Prescott Valley, Sedona, Flagstaff and Phoenix!

Key facts

• Remodeled kitchen
• Open and airy layout
• Fully fenced lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED LOT
• GORGEOUS NEW FLOORING
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• OPEN AND AIRY LAYOUT
• EASY ACCESS TO PRESCOTT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 8,802 sq ft (assessor)
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking (1 space); Carport (1 space); RV access/parking
• Utilities: Private water company; Sewer: connected
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Steel frame; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Aluminum siding; Steel frame construction; Composition roof; County-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Built-in electric oven
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: No interior steps; Full bath in primary bedroom; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-266 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (28.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#181 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mayer Elementary School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #570 of 1,109 statewide, top 52%, 373 students, 93% FRL); Mayer High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 200 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 79% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 244 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,424 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.30%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,232
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20415 E Sierra Dr E #8	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+3%)	4mo	$289,000	$209	79
20605 E Conestoga Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+6%)	6mo	$260,000	$183	78
20809 E Antelope Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+0%)	3mo	$239,900	$178	74
20629 E Prickly Pear Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,407 (+5%)	7mo	$199,900	$142	72
20720 E Larry Lane Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+14%)	6mo	$210,000	$138	67
20721 E Mingus Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	8mo	$190,000	$165	62
20518 E Sierra Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,210 (-10%)	14mo	$224,900	$186	58
20790 E Marble Canyon Way	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,494 (+11%)	3mo	$90,000	$60	51
20907 E Marble Canyon Way	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,287 (-4%)	13mo	$235,000	$183	50
20850 E Cedar Dr	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,184 (-12%)	3mo	$74,000	$63	50
20921 E Skyview Ln	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,414 (+5%)	3mo	$340,000	$240	50
20929 E Coyote Ln	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,477 (+10%)	1mo	$205,000	$139	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $100,185
• Equity at exit: $193,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $308,390
• Equity at exit: $417,698

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,544 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,225/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $-266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,881

Max offer price $176,529

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-117	-5% $-192	+0% $-266	+5% $-340	+10% $-414
Rent	-10% $-388	-5% $-327	+0% $-266	+5% $-205	+10% $-144
Rate	-1.0pp $-158	-0.5pp $-211	base $-266	+0.5pp $-322	+1.0pp $-378

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $215,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $215,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $215,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    listed $215,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (883 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully remodeled double-wide manufactured home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and situated on a spacious .20 acre fully fenced lot. Thoughtfully updated with a warm boho-inspired touch, this home blends modern comfort with inviting charm. Inside, you will find gorgeous new flooring throughout, a beautifully remodeled kitchen, and stylish updated bathroom designed with both function and flair in mind. The open and airy layout creates the perfect space for relaxing or entertaining, while all appliances convey for an easy move-in experience. Enjoy the privacy and versatility of the fully fenced yard with plenty of room for pets, gardening, or outdoor gatherings. This turnkey home is full of character and ready for it's new owners to enjoy. Located just 1 mile from I17 with easy access to Prescott, Prescott Valley, Sedona, Flagstaff and Phoenix!

18. 2026-05-19
    listed $215,000 Active 883-char remark

    Show marketing remark (883 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully remodeled double-wide manufactured home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and situated on a spacious .20 acre fully fenced lot. Thoughtfully updated with a warm boho-inspired touch, this home blends modern comfort with inviting charm. Inside, you will find gorgeous new flooring throughout, a beautifully remodeled kitchen, and stylish updated bathroom designed with both function and flair in mind. The open and airy layout creates the perfect space for relaxing or entertaining, while all appliances convey for an easy move-in experience. Enjoy the privacy and versatility of the fully fenced yard with plenty of room for pets, gardening, or outdoor gatherings. This turnkey home is full of character and ready for it's new owners to enjoy. Located just 1 mile from I17 with easy access to Prescott, Prescott Valley, Sedona, Flagstaff and Phoenix!

19. 2025-05-29
    soldstatus $196,000
20. 2025-05-23
    soldstatus $196,000 Closed
21. 2025-05-20
    status Pending
22. 2025-05-20
    listed $199,000 Active
23. 2025-05-19
    soldstatus $196,000 Closed
24. 2025-05-07
    status Pending
25. 2025-04-22
    listed $199,000 Active
26. 2024-05-05
    historical
27. 2024-03-20
    price $199,000
28. 2024-03-12
    price $212,000
29. 2024-02-27
    price $235,000
30. 2024-02-19
    price $249,000
31. 2024-02-08
    listed $275,000 Active
32. 2024-01-03
    soldstatus $75,000
33. 2009-11-06
    soldstatus $50,000
34. 2009-11-06
    soldstatus $50,000
35. 2001-12-31
    soldstatus $28,250
36. 1994-01-27
    soldstatus $37,900
37. 1993-03-19
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 4 d/yr ≥101°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,531
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,225
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,482
• − Management: −$1,482
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$7,032
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,688
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,503/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cordes Lakes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #19144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cordes Lakes, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+975.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $215,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Listed $215,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $196,000 Public Records
• 2025-05-23 Sold (MLS) $196,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-20 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-05-20 Listed $199,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-19 Sold (MLS) $196,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-07 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-04-22 Listed $199,000 ARMLS
• 2024-05-05 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-03-20 Price Changed $199,000 ARMLS
• 2024-03-12 Price Changed $212,000 ARMLS
• 2024-02-27 Price Changed $235,000 ARMLS
• 2024-02-19 Price Changed $249,000 ARMLS
• 2024-02-08 Listed $275,000 ARMLS
• 2024-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2009-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2009-11-06 Sold (MLS) $50,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-12-31 Sold (MLS) $28,250 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $37,900 Public Records
• 1993-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $239 · -8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.