505 S Dean St · Bay City, MI 48706

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1900 5,000 sqft lot Est $134k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MULTI UNIT OFFERED AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $105k implies a 250% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $105,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.17%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $134,288
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
509 S Dewitt St	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-3%)	7mo	$104,000	$87	81
203 W Jenny St	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,233 (+0%)	7mo	$190,000	$154	79
207 Main St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-3%)	5mo	$148,900	$124	69
607 W Jenny St	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,236 (+0%)	3mo	$100,000	$81	69
309 W Fisher St	0.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,248 (+1%)	9mo	$140,000	$112	67
315 S Alp St	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,223 (-1%)	6mo	$130,000	$106	65
301 S Alp St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-3%)	9mo	$129,950	$109	63
600 S Wenona Ave	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,376 (+12%)	8mo	$42,000	$31	61
401 E Florence St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+1%)	4mo	$125,000	$100	59
1306 S Erie St	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,219 (-1%)	2mo	$163,900	$134	55
312 S Barclay St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,271 (+3%)	7mo	$160,000	$126	50
104 W Ionia St	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,096 (-11%)	5mo	$106,000	$97	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-4,246
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $12,778
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,161 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,473/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $908

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	44d	1	0.86mi
800 McKinley St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	796	$925	$1.16	44d	1	0.99mi
600 18th St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	44d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-15
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (48 chars)

   MULTI UNIT OFFERED AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO

2. 2026-03-15
   status Pending 48-char remark

   Show marketing remark (48 chars)

   MULTI UNIT OFFERED AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO

3. 2026-03-14
   listed $105,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (48 chars)

   MULTI UNIT OFFERED AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO

4. 2026-03-14
   listed $105,000 Active 48-char remark

   Show marketing remark (48 chars)

   MULTI UNIT OFFERED AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO

5. 2019-01-11
   soldstatus $30,000 419-char remark

   Show marketing remark (419 chars)

   City Certified Two Unit could easily be converted to a Single Family Home. Unit A rented for $500. Unit B rented for $600. Owner paid all utilities, no separate meters. Both are vacant, unit B has refinished hardwood flooring and 2 bedrooms upstairs. Apartment A has Ceramic Tile in the kitchen, Bedroom closet is near the bathroom, not in the bedroom. No appliances and no laundry hook up, Renters used the Laundromat.

6. 2018-10-20
   listed $34,900 419-char remark

   Show marketing remark (419 chars)

   City Certified Two Unit could easily be converted to a Single Family Home. Unit A rented for $500. Unit B rented for $600. Owner paid all utilities, no separate meters. Both are vacant, unit B has refinished hardwood flooring and 2 bedrooms upstairs. Apartment A has Ceramic Tile in the kitchen, Bedroom closet is near the bathroom, not in the bedroom. No appliances and no laundry hook up, Renters used the Laundromat.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,473 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,545 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$72/yr (+$6/mo · 4.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,935
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,473
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,115
• − Management: −$1,115
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $772
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$185
• After-tax cash flow: $2,218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+200.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-15 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $105,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $105,000 REALCOMP
• 2019-01-11 Sold (MLS) $30,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-10-20 Listed $34,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,473 · -10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.