2200 Lancaster Dr SE Unit 16A · Salem, OR 97317

$84,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 560 sqft · Manufactured · 219 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $152/sqft · 486% above area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new 2024 1 bedroom 1 bathroom home with 560 sq. ft. is now available at Sundial! The living room and kitchen are open and bright. The kitchen has brand-new stainless-steel appliances and a deep kitchen sink! There is recessed lighting throughout the home and washer/dryer hookups. Outside you have a front porch, carport, storage shed and low maintenance landscaping! Space rent: $1,200/month Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library & billiard room.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Carport
• Storage shed

Tags

• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• DEEP KITCHEN SINK
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• FRONT PORCH
• CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $74,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.55%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $14,500
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: 485.52%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $10,458
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $39,032
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97317

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,233 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,274/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $743

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $446	-5% $417	+0% $387	+5% $358	+10% $329
Rent	-10% $290	-5% $339	+0% $387	+5% $436	+10% $485
Rate	-1.0pp $430	-0.5pp $409	base $387	+0.5pp $365	+1.0pp $343

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4665 Campbell Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$1,299	$1.41	15d	1	0.58mi
1569 Whitaker Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	933	$1,299	$1.39	15d	1	0.90mi
3897 Meadowlawn Loop SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,280	$1.33	15d	26	1.10mi
5192 Caplinger Rd SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$1,305	$1.41	15d	25	1.25mi
4433 Mahrt Ave SE Unit 4433-205 Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	688	$1,225	$1.78	45d	1	1.34mi
4242 State St Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	684	$1,325	$1.94	24d	1	1.42mi
143 Connecticut Ave SE Unit 143 Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	705	$950	$1.35	15d	1	1.45mi
4265 State St Unit 2 Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	500	$995	$1.99	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $84,900 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 216 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 215 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 214 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,900 Active 213 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $84,900 Active 211 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $84,900 Active 208 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,900 Active 207 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,900 Active 206 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,900 Active 205 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,900 Active 201 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,900 Active 200 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,900 Active 199 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,900 Active 198 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $84,900 Active 197 DOM
16. 2025-11-14
    listed $109,900 Active 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    Brand new 2024 1 bedroom 1 bathroom home with 560 sq. ft. is now available at Sundial! The living room and kitchen are open and bright. The kitchen has brand-new stainless-steel appliances and a deep kitchen sink! There is recessed lighting throughout the home and washer/dryer hookups. Outside you have a front porch, carport, storage shed and low maintenance landscaping! Space rent: $1,200/month Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library & billiard room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,274
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,184
• − Management: −$1,184
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $3,504
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$841
• After-tax cash flow: $3,806/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 2024 manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a fresh, move-in-ready living space with potential for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and adds value
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices improve convenience and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices improve convenience and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 25,966
• Household income: $84,393
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 395.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 17% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -471.73%
• Current HPI: 307.3264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-14 Listed $109,900 Zillow