2806 Shining Willow Ter · Orlando, FL 32808

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 868 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1984 1,951 sqft lot Est $179k · 33% under $71/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Excellent investment opportunity! This beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom condo features a spacious covered balcony, ceramic tile flooring throughout with no carpet, and a modern kitchen with a granite peninsula that opens to the living and dining areas, creating a functional and inviting layout. The property is tenant-occupied and currently leased for $1,365 per month, with the lease recently renewed for an additional one-year term, providing immediate and stable rental income from day one. This is a true turnkey investment with reliable cash flow and an estimated annual return of approximately 10%. Whether you're looking to expand your investment portfolio or acquire a low-maint

Key facts

• Covered balcony
• Turnkey investment
• Granite peninsula

Tags

• COVERED BALCONY
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• MODERN KITCHEN
• GRANITE PENINSULA
• TURNKEY INVESTMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total annual association fees approximately $858
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: HOA: The Willows first addition; Monthly HOA fee of $71.50 (required); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Cement siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Built on slab foundation; Building area about 1,040 square feet
• Exterior features: Balcony; Sliding doors; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Slab foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan with living room/dining room combo; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $120,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$178,808) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $310 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.0% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rolling Hills Elementary (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 472 students, 77% FRL); Meadowbrook Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #532 of 571 statewide, top 94%, 957 students, 78% FRL); Maynard Evans High (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #562 of 667 statewide, top 85%, 2,417 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 56% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 251 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $120k implies a 186% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.07%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,808
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5112 Figwood Ln	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (+4%)	8mo	$185,000	$206	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-4,192
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $4,430
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32808

• Home prices YoY: -22.6%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,560 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,070/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,168

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $378	-5% $344	+0% $310	+5% $276	+10% $242
Rent	-10% $187	-5% $248	+0% $310	+5% $372	+10% $433
Rate	-1.0pp $370	-0.5pp $341	base $310	+0.5pp $279	+1.0pp $247

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4705 Almond Willow Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,600	$1.85	25d	1	0.09mi
4757 Silver Star Rd Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	728	$1,189	$1.63	25d	1	0.10mi
2920 Eastern Willow Ave Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	868	$1,500	$1.73	25d	1	0.13mi
3071 Willow Bend Blvd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,525	$1.69	25d	1	0.17mi
3043 Willow Bend Blvd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	25d	1	0.18mi
4697 Rose Coral Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	576	$1,437	$2.49	3d	15	0.29mi
4500 Silver Star Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,309	$1.31	25d	1	0.35mi
3285 Split Willow Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	845	$1,400	$1.66	25d	1	0.37mi
4306 Silver Star Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,800	$1.67	25d	1	0.52mi
5249 Champagne Cir Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,795	$1.83	25d	1	0.69mi
2203 Silver Pines Pl #601 Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	962	$1,500	$1.56	25d	1	0.81mi
5505 Hernandes Dr #113 Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	728	$1,175	$1.61	25d	1	0.84mi
5600 Silver Star Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,310	$1.54	16d	6	0.84mi
5402 Pine Chase Dr Orlando, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1133	$1,449	$1.28	3d	4	0.86mi
4358 South Lake Orlando Pkwy Unit 3-3 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1089	$1,800	$1.65	9d	1	0.96mi
1537 Ridge Pointe Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1108	$2,200	$1.99	25d	1	1.01mi
1407 Sunridge Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,945	$1.73	9d	1	1.01mi
1529 Ridge Pointe Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1108	$1,995	$1.80	9d	1	1.02mi
4990 North Ln Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	432	$1,230	$2.85	21d	5	1.08mi
4919 Erleen Pl Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	965	$800	$0.83	25d	1	1.10mi
1214 N Pine Hills Rd Unit 2 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	868	$2,100	$2.42	21d	1	1.14mi
4758 Muir Village Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1097	$2,063	$1.88	16d	1	1.36mi
4501 Landing Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,417	$1.80	3d	18	1.40mi
1020 barnett villas Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	934	$1,439	$1.54	25d	1	1.45mi
4907 Lake Ridge Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	947	$1,475	$1.56	25d	1	1.46mi
4793 N Pine Hills Rd Orlando, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	954	$1,449	$1.52	17d	56	1.47mi
4793 N Pine Hills Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	890	$1,554	$1.75	4d	1	1.47mi
4793 N Pine Hills Rd Unit 41-101 Pine Hills, FL	3.0	2.0	1019	$1,649	$1.62	9d	1	1.47mi
1625 Mercy Dr Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	25d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $120,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,070 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,070 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,726
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,070
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,498
• − Management: −$1,498
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $1,995
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$479
• After-tax cash flow: $3,241/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Orlando

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #360

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orlando, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 964,969
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 60,203
• Household income: $49,700
• Rent vs Own: 58.0% rent · 42.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 4039.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% Hispanic / Latino 13% White 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 20% Lithuanian 1% Scandinavian 0%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 18% Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.15%
• Current HPI: 376.3801
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.27%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+203.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-23 Listed $69,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-23 Price Changed $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-02 Listed $79,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 2012-01-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-14 Listed $21,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $39,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,070 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.