Rosedale Plan · Kyle, TX 78640

$284,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,879 sqft · SingleFamily · 125 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first level of this two-story residence is host to a generous open concept design, offering seamless transition between the family room, kitchen and dining area. The owner's suite is equipped with a private bathroom and walk-in closet at the back of the home. A loft providing additional shared living space can be found upstairs along with three more bedrooms.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open concept design
• Private bathroom

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $284,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $347,738.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-643 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laura B Negley El (math 42% / reading 51%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 1,007 students, 29% FRL); R C Barton Middle (math 56% / reading 52%, grade B-, #270 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 816 students, 33% FRL); Jack C Hays H S (math 41% / reading 47%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,062 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1820 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,854 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.92%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,738
• List price: $284,999
• Delta: -18.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 Doherty St	0.07mi	4/3.0	1,966 (+5%)	2mo	$349,000	$178	86
2296 Herzog	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,846 (-2%)	1mo	$275,000	$149	84
1031 Powell	0.21mi	4/2.5	1,973 (+5%)	0mo	$352,530	$179	82
5152 Hellman	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,920 (+2%)	2mo	$319,900	$167	74
133 Bugbee	0.69mi	4/2.5	1,879 (0%)	1mo	$263,999	$140	67
181 Bugbee	0.71mi	4/2.5	1,879 (0%)	1mo	$273,990	$146	66
1206 Sanders	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,104 (+12%)	1mo	$349,900	$166	65
215 Bugbee	0.73mi	4/2.5	1,879 (0%)	2mo	$273,990	$146	65
3350 Everett	0.58mi	4/3.0	1,969 (+5%)	1mo	$370,999	$188	62
131 Rains	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,762 (-6%)	2mo	$299,900	$170	60
3275 Everett	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,774 (-6%)	2mo	$343,999	$194	57
3335 Everett	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,085 (+11%)	1mo	$357,999	$172	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-103,773
• Equity at exit: $51,849

10-year hold

• IRR: -63.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.73×
• Total profit: $-168,167
• Equity at exit: $30,066

Cash invested: $97,367 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1820
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,229 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,824
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$435 /mo · $5,216/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-643

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,042

Max offer price $254,754

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-402	-5% $-522	+0% $-643	+5% $-763	+10% $-883
Rent	-10% $-819	-5% $-731	+0% $-643	+5% $-555	+10% $-467
Rate	-1.0pp $-467	-0.5pp $-554	base $-643	+0.5pp $-733	+1.0pp $-824

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,935
• Closing costs: $10,432
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
541 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,950	$1.53	6d	1	0.10mi
321 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$2,600	$2.04	19d	1	0.13mi
201 Edwin Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1333	$1,950	$1.46	18d	1	0.15mi
250 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,899	$1.49	14d	1	0.17mi
889 Powell St Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1882	$2,249	$1.20	4d	1	0.18mi
889 Powell St Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1882	$2,249	$1.20	0d	1	0.18mi
905 Powell St Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1879	$2,300	$1.22	19d	1	0.18mi
220 Barcelona Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,200	$1.24	5d	1	0.19mi
252 Patagonia Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1434	$2,000	$1.39	6d	1	0.22mi
139 Madrid Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1914	$2,350	$1.23	6d	1	0.23mi
510 Kohlers Xing Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,731	$1.77	45d	1	0.24mi
167 Rioja Unit (Main House) Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1569	$1,900	$1.21	6d	1	0.26mi
167 Rioja Kyle, TX	3.0	3.0	1569	$2,300	$1.47	45d	1	0.26mi
500 Jack Ryan Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$2,200	$1.36	19d	1	0.30mi
5208 Hellman Kyle, TX	4.0	3.5	2275	$2,245	$0.99	16d	1	0.33mi
216 Jeffers Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,095	$1.29	25d	1	0.42mi
3875 Burnham Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$2,793	$2.92	0d	42	0.45mi
373 Jeffers Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2035	$2,190	$1.08	45d	1	0.49mi
238 Dreyer Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,200	$0.88	45d	1	0.52mi
3305 Everett Kyle, TX	4.0	3.0	1913	$2,399	$1.25	45d	1	0.62mi
397 Keefer Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,850	$1.28	3d	1	0.67mi
4624 Cromwell Dr Kyle, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1172	$1,790	$1.53	4d	8	0.72mi
309 Juniper Dr Mountain City, TX	4.0	2.0	2199	$2,799	$1.27	19d	1	0.74mi
1454 Marley Kyle, TX	4.0	3.0	1969	$2,249	$1.14	14d	1	0.74mi
115 Parsons Kyle, TX	4.0	3.0	1969	$2,249	$1.14	12d	1	0.78mi
1405 Marley Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,349	$1.32	0d	1	0.79mi
1200 Kohlers Xing Kyle, TX	4.0	3.0	1921	$2,349	$1.22	25d	1	0.81mi
101 Ina Ct Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1642	$1,680	$1.02	25d	1	0.81mi
190 Tofalla Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,200	$1.24	25d	1	0.83mi
135 Michaelis Unit B Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1552	$1,600	$1.03	45d	1	1.07mi
191 Cleveland Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1671	$1,975	$1.18	14d	1	1.07mi
401 Witte Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2298	$2,800	$1.22	0d	1	1.09mi
437 Sampson Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,965	$1.42	3d	1	1.18mi
4937 Hartson Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,950	$1.43	45d	1	1.19mi
4977 Hartson Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1640	$2,250	$1.37	19d	1	1.22mi
411 Wetzel Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2400	$2,350	$0.98	45d	1	1.23mi
140 Schmidt Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1521	$1,900	$1.25	0d	1	1.26mi
196 Spangle Way Kyle, TX	3.0	3.0	1834	$2,100	$1.15	45d	1	1.31mi
5157 Hartson Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1938	$2,100	$1.08	0d	1	1.32mi
544 Hogan Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2183	$1,950	$0.89	16d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $284,999 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $284,999 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $284,999 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $284,999 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $284,999 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $284,999 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $284,999 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $284,999 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $284,999 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $284,999 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $284,999 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $284,999 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $284,999 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $284,999 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    price $284,999 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    The first level of this two-story residence is host to a generous open concept design, offering seamless transition between the family room, kitchen and dining area. The owner's suite is equipped with a private bathroom and walk-in closet at the back of the home. A loft providing additional shared living space can be found upstairs along with three more bedrooms.

16. 2026-03-31
    price $285,999 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    The first level of this two-story residence is host to a generous open concept design, offering seamless transition between the family room, kitchen and dining area. The owner's suite is equipped with a private bathroom and walk-in closet at the back of the home. A loft providing additional shared living space can be found upstairs along with three more bedrooms.

17. 2026-02-16
    listed $285,990 Active 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    The first level of this two-story residence is host to a generous open concept design, offering seamless transition between the family room, kitchen and dining area. The owner's suite is equipped with a private bathroom and walk-in closet at the back of the home. A loft providing additional shared living space can be found upstairs along with three more bedrooms.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,742
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,479
• − Property taxes: −$5,216
• − Insurance: −$1,739
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,139
• − Management: −$2,139
• − Depreciation: −$10,116
• Taxable loss: −$14,086
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,381
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kyle, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $284,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $285,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $285,990 Zillow