140 Tolo Dr · Elgin, TX 78621

$253,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,487 sqft · Land · 155 Days on market

Built 2025 4,791 sqft lot $171/sqft · 121% above area $52/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Put down roots in the elegant Cedar. The single-story floor plan feels spacious and welcoming with a lofty foyer and cheery great room. Put tiny artists to work drawing the lush trees dotting your backyard while you put the finishing touches on turkey sandwiches. Cutting them into kite shapes was an inspired idea. They can eat at the beautiful kitchen island before going out to play in the backyard. At the end of the day, they can bed down in the secondary bedrooms while you take a warm shower in your lavish primary suite.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $254k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 813 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $197,346 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.61%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $114,747
• List price: $253,990
• Delta: 121.35%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $132,447
• Equity at exit: $228,814

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.56×
• Total profit: $395,246
• Equity at exit: $493,447

Cash invested: $71,117 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 813
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,973 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,332
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,978/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,094

Max offer price $237,100

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $48	-5% $-24	+0% $-96	+5% $-167	+10% $-239
Rent	-10% $-252	-5% $-174	+0% $-96	+5% $-18	+10% $60
Rate	-1.0pp $32	-0.5pp $-31	base $-96	+0.5pp $-161	+1.0pp $-228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,498
• Closing costs: $7,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Bendecido Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,950	$1.50	18d	1	0.38mi
120 Jim Dandy Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,923	$1.17	5d	1	0.72mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	44d	1	0.83mi
110 S Main St #104 Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1061	$1,700	$1.60	44d	1	1.05mi
204 Hall St Unit A Elgin, TX	2.0	1.0	910	$1,195	$1.31	2d	1	1.28mi
200 Maple Ln Elgin, TX	2.0	2.0	891	$1,400	$1.57	44d	1	1.37mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	13d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $253,990 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $253,990 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $253,990 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $253,990 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $253,990 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $253,990 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $253,990 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $253,990 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-05-11
   price $253,990 528-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   MLS# 5265221 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Ready Now! ~ Put down roots in the elegant Cedar. The single-story floor plan feels spacious and welcoming with a lofty foyer and cheery great room. Put tiny artists to work drawing the lush trees dotting your backyard while you put the finishing touches on turkey sandwiches. Cutting them into kite shapes was an inspired idea. They can eat at the beautiful kitchen island before going out to play in the backyard. At the end of the day, they can bed down in the secondary bedrooms while you take a warm shower in your lavish primary suite.

10. 2026-05-11
    price $253,990 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    MLS# 5265221 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Ready Now! ~ Put down roots in the elegant Cedar. The single-story floor plan feels spacious and welcoming with a lofty foyer and cheery great room. Put tiny artists to work drawing the lush trees dotting your backyard while you put the finishing touches on turkey sandwiches. Cutting them into kite shapes was an inspired idea. They can eat at the beautiful kitchen island before going out to play in the backyard. At the end of the day, they can bed down in the secondary bedrooms while you take a warm shower in your lavish primary suite.

11. 2026-05-04
    price $256,990 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    MLS# 5265221 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Ready Now! ~ Put down roots in the elegant Cedar. The single-story floor plan feels spacious and welcoming with a lofty foyer and cheery great room. Put tiny artists to work drawing the lush trees dotting your backyard while you put the finishing touches on turkey sandwiches. Cutting them into kite shapes was an inspired idea. They can eat at the beautiful kitchen island before going out to play in the backyard. At the end of the day, they can bed down in the secondary bedrooms while you take a warm shower in your lavish primary suite.

12. 2026-05-04
    price $256,990 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    MLS# 5265221 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Ready Now! ~ Put down roots in the elegant Cedar. The single-story floor plan feels spacious and welcoming with a lofty foyer and cheery great room. Put tiny artists to work drawing the lush trees dotting your backyard while you put the finishing touches on turkey sandwiches. Cutting them into kite shapes was an inspired idea. They can eat at the beautiful kitchen island before going out to play in the backyard. At the end of the day, they can bed down in the secondary bedrooms while you take a warm shower in your lavish primary suite.

13. 2026-04-28
    price $259,990 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Put down roots in the elegant Cedar. The single-story floor plan feels spacious and welcoming with a lofty foyer and cheery great room. Put tiny artists to work drawing the lush trees dotting your backyard while you put the finishing touches on turkey sandwiches. Cutting them into kite shapes was an inspired idea. They can eat at the beautiful kitchen island before going out to play in the backyard. At the end of the day, they can bed down in the secondary bedrooms while you take a warm shower in your lavish primary suite.

14. 2026-04-27
    price $259,990 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    MLS# 5265221 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Ready Now! ~ Put down roots in the elegant Cedar. The single-story floor plan feels spacious and welcoming with a lofty foyer and cheery great room. Put tiny artists to work drawing the lush trees dotting your backyard while you put the finishing touches on turkey sandwiches. Cutting them into kite shapes was an inspired idea. They can eat at the beautiful kitchen island before going out to play in the backyard. At the end of the day, they can bed down in the secondary bedrooms while you take a warm shower in your lavish primary suite.

15. 2026-04-20
    price $274,990 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    MLS# 5265221 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Ready Now! ~ Put down roots in the elegant Cedar. The single-story floor plan feels spacious and welcoming with a lofty foyer and cheery great room. Put tiny artists to work drawing the lush trees dotting your backyard while you put the finishing touches on turkey sandwiches. Cutting them into kite shapes was an inspired idea. They can eat at the beautiful kitchen island before going out to play in the backyard. At the end of the day, they can bed down in the secondary bedrooms while you take a warm shower in your lavish primary suite.

16. 2026-04-20
    price $274,990 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    MLS# 5265221 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Ready Now! ~ Put down roots in the elegant Cedar. The single-story floor plan feels spacious and welcoming with a lofty foyer and cheery great room. Put tiny artists to work drawing the lush trees dotting your backyard while you put the finishing touches on turkey sandwiches. Cutting them into kite shapes was an inspired idea. They can eat at the beautiful kitchen island before going out to play in the backyard. At the end of the day, they can bed down in the secondary bedrooms while you take a warm shower in your lavish primary suite.

17. 2026-04-08
    price $279,990 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    MLS# 5265221 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Ready Now! ~ Put down roots in the elegant Cedar. The single-story floor plan feels spacious and welcoming with a lofty foyer and cheery great room. Put tiny artists to work drawing the lush trees dotting your backyard while you put the finishing touches on turkey sandwiches. Cutting them into kite shapes was an inspired idea. They can eat at the beautiful kitchen island before going out to play in the backyard. At the end of the day, they can bed down in the secondary bedrooms while you take a warm shower in your lavish primary suite.

18. 2026-04-08
    price $279,990 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    MLS# 5265221 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Ready Now! ~ Put down roots in the elegant Cedar. The single-story floor plan feels spacious and welcoming with a lofty foyer and cheery great room. Put tiny artists to work drawing the lush trees dotting your backyard while you put the finishing touches on turkey sandwiches. Cutting them into kite shapes was an inspired idea. They can eat at the beautiful kitchen island before going out to play in the backyard. At the end of the day, they can bed down in the secondary bedrooms while you take a warm shower in your lavish primary suite.

19. 2026-01-19
    price $284,990 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    MLS# 5265221 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Ready Now! ~ Put down roots in the elegant Cedar. The single-story floor plan feels spacious and welcoming with a lofty foyer and cheery great room. Put tiny artists to work drawing the lush trees dotting your backyard while you put the finishing touches on turkey sandwiches. Cutting them into kite shapes was an inspired idea. They can eat at the beautiful kitchen island before going out to play in the backyard. At the end of the day, they can bed down in the secondary bedrooms while you take a warm shower in your lavish primary suite.

20. 2026-01-19
    price $284,990 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    MLS# 5265221 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Ready Now! ~ Put down roots in the elegant Cedar. The single-story floor plan feels spacious and welcoming with a lofty foyer and cheery great room. Put tiny artists to work drawing the lush trees dotting your backyard while you put the finishing touches on turkey sandwiches. Cutting them into kite shapes was an inspired idea. They can eat at the beautiful kitchen island before going out to play in the backyard. At the end of the day, they can bed down in the secondary bedrooms while you take a warm shower in your lavish primary suite.

21. 2026-01-17
    status Active 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Put down roots in the elegant Cedar. The single-story floor plan feels spacious and welcoming with a lofty foyer and cheery great room. Put tiny artists to work drawing the lush trees dotting your backyard while you put the finishing touches on turkey sandwiches. Cutting them into kite shapes was an inspired idea. They can eat at the beautiful kitchen island before going out to play in the backyard. At the end of the day, they can bed down in the secondary bedrooms while you take a warm shower in your lavish primary suite.

22. 2026-01-17
    historical 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Put down roots in the elegant Cedar. The single-story floor plan feels spacious and welcoming with a lofty foyer and cheery great room. Put tiny artists to work drawing the lush trees dotting your backyard while you put the finishing touches on turkey sandwiches. Cutting them into kite shapes was an inspired idea. They can eat at the beautiful kitchen island before going out to play in the backyard. At the end of the day, they can bed down in the secondary bedrooms while you take a warm shower in your lavish primary suite.

23. 2026-01-05
    listed $295,900 Active 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    MLS# 5265221 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Ready Now! ~ Put down roots in the elegant Cedar. The single-story floor plan feels spacious and welcoming with a lofty foyer and cheery great room. Put tiny artists to work drawing the lush trees dotting your backyard while you put the finishing touches on turkey sandwiches. Cutting them into kite shapes was an inspired idea. They can eat at the beautiful kitchen island before going out to play in the backyard. At the end of the day, they can bed down in the secondary bedrooms while you take a warm shower in your lavish primary suite.

24. 2025-12-29
    listed $295,900 Active 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    Put down roots in the elegant Cedar. The single-story floor plan feels spacious and welcoming with a lofty foyer and cheery great room. Put tiny artists to work drawing the lush trees dotting your backyard while you put the finishing touches on turkey sandwiches. Cutting them into kite shapes was an inspired idea. They can eat at the beautiful kitchen island before going out to play in the backyard. At the end of the day, they can bed down in the secondary bedrooms while you take a warm shower in your lavish primary suite.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,978 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,648 · $387/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,670/yr (+$222/mo · 134.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,682
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,227
• − Property taxes: −$1,978
• − Insurance: −$1,270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,895
• − Management: −$1,895
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$7,389
• Taxable loss: −$5,596
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,343
• After-tax cash flow: $196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $253,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $253,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $256,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $256,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $259,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $274,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $279,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $279,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $284,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $284,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-17 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-17 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-05 Listed $295,900 Unlock MLS
• 2025-12-29 Listed $295,900 Zillow

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,978 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.