21200 Todd Valley Rd #79 · Foresthill, CA 95631

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 27 Days on market

Built 2018 Good condition Est $86k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for an affordable home in a friendly mountain community? This one-of-a-kind tiny home combines character, craftsmanship, and comfort. Stick-built, new in 2018, on a solid 1973 Fleetwood frame, it's constructed with 3-inch double studded walls, a double-joisted 1-inch floor, and full insulation in the walls, ceiling, and flooring. Hardboard cement siding and fire rated outer and inner windowpanes add long-term durability and safety, while ductwork for air conditioning is already in place so you can easily attach an AC unit. Step inside and feel the difference - vaulted ceilings in the living room create an airy, open atmosphere rarely found in tiny homes. The smart floor plan provide

Key facts

• Built 2018
• Listed 27 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a non-senior community
• Financial info: No land lease
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Propane service; 220V in kitchen; Holding tank sewer; Private water and water district connection
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Single-wide; Original condition; Built in 2018; Fleetwood frame; Metal skirting
• Construction: Composition roof; Fleetwood frame construction; Metal skirting; Built in 2018
• Exterior features: Cul-de-sac lot; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Range hood
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Simulated wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower combination
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating with wall furnace; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Porch; Dual-pane windows; Cathedral/vaulted living and family rooms; Stone kitchen counters
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included (stacked); Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $352 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 1.7% in Foresthill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 39/100 on livability (#1,397 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Placer Union High (suburban): math 39% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #98 of 517 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $88,650 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.78%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $85,680
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21200 Todd Valley Rd #10	0.07mi	2/1.0	810 (+12%)	22mo	$96,000	$119	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $7,881
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $35,842
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95631

• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,233 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $90,000 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $90,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $90,000 Active 26 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,801
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,184
• − Management: −$1,184
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $2,973
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$714
• After-tax cash flow: $3,516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, bathroom, exterior, flooring, and interior walls. The home is move-in ready and has a good roof and HVAC system. The highest-ROI updates that would raise its resale or rental value are painting the exterior siding, cleaning the windows, and inspecting the roof for any leaks or damage.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers.
• Rental Clean the windows — Clean windows can make the home more appealing to renters and improve the overall living experience.
• Both Inspect the roof for any leaks or damage — Inspecting the roof for any leaks or damage can prevent costly repairs in the future and ensure the home's structural integrity.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Clean the windows — Clean windows can make the home more appealing to renters and improve the overall living experience. ↑
• Both Inspect the roof for any leaks or damage — Inspecting the roof for any leaks or damage can prevent costly repairs in the future and ensure the home's structural integrity. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Placer Union High
• NCES district ID: 0630750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,119
• Composite: 49.04/100
• National rank: #2060
• State rank: #98 of 517 in CA

Livability — Foresthill

• Score: 39/100
• State rank: #1397
• US rank: #27383

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,934

Population outlook (Placer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 422,709 people
• By 2030: 444,249 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 480,192 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 506,390 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 550,219 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 547,760 · +29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Placer

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.5) · D 44.3% · R 52.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: -11.3pp · 2024: -8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.5 2020: R+6.7 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+11.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.65%
• Current HPI: 235.5632
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B