9802 Lum Ln · Houston, TX 77078

$225,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,866 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1969 6,499 sqft lot $121/sqft · 12% below area Est $255k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 9802 Lum Lane! The sale comes with not one, BUT TWO homes! The first home boasts 4 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, and the guest home comes with 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom! Whether you strive for multigenerational/guest home, a primary home and a rental home, OR a complete investment, anything is possible! The second home is roughly 564sqft and both homes have their own gates, entrances, and privacy fences, providing an ease of privacy and comfort no matter what your goals are!

Key facts

• Own gates
• Guest home
• Privacy fences

Tags

• GUEST HOME
• PRIVACY FENCES
• OWN GATES
• OWN ENTRANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-346 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (27.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (25.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,687/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 780% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,823 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.60%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,218
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -11.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9409 Kentshire Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,904 (+2%)	4mo	$110,200	$58	64
9418 Madera Rd	0.44mi	3/2.5	2,100 (+12%)	1mo	$289,999	$138	54
9318 Balsam Ln	0.46mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,747 (-6%)	14mo	$224,000	$128	51
8605 Caddo Rd	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,995 (+7%)	7mo	$289,990	$145	50
8807 Robin Song Trl	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,963 (+5%)	12mo	$337,510	$172	44
9615 Summer Shadow Way	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,963 (+5%)	16mo	$258,000	$131	44
9822 Arvin St	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,995 (+7%)	5mo	$305,000	$153	44
9703 Guest St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,646 (-12%)	5mo	$224,000	$136	43
8907 Parkette Dr	0.43mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,594 (-15%)	11mo	$140,000	$88	41
9750 Guest St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,661 (-11%)	12mo	$115,000	$69	40
8522 Rinn St	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-14%)	5mo	$139,000	$87	34
8646 Fringewood Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-14%)	16mo	$293,000	$183	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-783
• Equity at exit: $94,859

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $35,831
• Equity at exit: $141,460

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77078

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,687 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$405 /mo · $4,864/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $-346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,125

Max offer price $163,823

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-219	-5% $-283	+0% $-346	+5% $-410	+10% $-474
Rent	-10% $-480	-5% $-413	+0% $-346	+5% $-280	+10% $-213
Rate	-1.0pp $-233	-0.5pp $-289	base $-346	+0.5pp $-405	+1.0pp $-464

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9526 Balsam Ln Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1533	$1,475	$0.96	5d	1	0.19mi
9218 Nyssa St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,490	$0.93	2d	1	0.41mi
9393 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1135	$1,244	$1.10	2d	10	0.48mi
9517 Madera Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,500	$0.93	44d	1	0.57mi
9702 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,550	$0.96	44d	1	0.68mi
9222 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,850	$1.23	44d	1	0.85mi
9137 Woodlyn Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1568	$1,550	$0.99	21d	1	0.86mi
8631 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	44d	1	0.88mi
8631 Homewood Ln Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,850	$1.23	44d	1	0.88mi
8627 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,850	$1.23	44d	1	0.89mi
8625 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	44d	1	0.89mi
9334 Crestview Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1899	$1,745	$0.92	5d	1	0.97mi
8314 Madera Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,495	$0.93	24d	1	0.99mi
9930 Valley Lake Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1385	$1,795	$1.30	44d	1	1.04mi
8235 Locksley Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,525	$0.95	8d	1	1.07mi
8638 Doris Oaks Cir Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1777	$1,975	$1.11	44d	1	1.08mi
8602 Wilkins Oaks Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,775	$1.36	44d	1	1.09mi
9943 Valley Wind Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,595	$1.21	2d	1	1.12mi
8214 Parker Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,560	$0.97	8d	1	1.19mi
8102 Rhobell St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	1567	$1,750	$1.12	44d	1	1.28mi
8238 Homewood Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1696	$1,695	$1.00	24d	1	1.36mi
8203 Woodlyn Rd Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$1,650	$1.00	8d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $225,000 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-03-18
    price $235,000 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    Welcome to 9802 Lum Lane! The sale comes with not one, BUT TWO homes! The first home boasts 4 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, and the guest home comes with 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom! Whether you strive for multigenerational/guest home, a primary home and a rental home, OR a complete investment, anything is possible! The second home is roughly 564sqft and both homes have their own gates, entrances, and privacy fences, providing an ease of privacy and comfort no matter what your goals are!

13. 2026-02-09
    listed $250,000 Active 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    Welcome to 9802 Lum Lane! The sale comes with not one, BUT TWO homes! The first home boasts 4 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, and the guest home comes with 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom! Whether you strive for multigenerational/guest home, a primary home and a rental home, OR a complete investment, anything is possible! The second home is roughly 564sqft and both homes have their own gates, entrances, and privacy fences, providing an ease of privacy and comfort no matter what your goals are!

14. 2021-02-23
    soldstatus
15. 2021-02-19
    soldstatus Sold
16. 2021-02-10
    status Pending
17. 2021-01-23
    status Active
18. 2021-01-22
    status Option Pending
19. 2021-01-13
    price $145,000
20. 2021-01-01
    historical
21. 2021-01-01
    listed $149,000 Active
22. 2020-12-16
    price $149,000
23. 2020-12-16
    status Active
24. 2020-12-02
    status Pending
25. 2020-11-22
    status Option Pending
26. 2020-11-11
    price $157,900
27. 2020-10-27
    price $159,900
28. 2020-10-21
    listed $168,000 Active
29. 2020-09-18
    soldstatus Sold
30. 2020-09-14
    status Pending
31. 2020-08-17
    soldstatus
32. 2020-08-12
    listed $103,000 Active
33. 1990-06-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,864 · $405/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,864 · $405/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$4,864
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,620
• − Management: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$8,133
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,952
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,247
• Household income: $39,093
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% Hispanic / Latino 46% Two or more races 15% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 41%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Current HPI: 307.0842
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+128.2% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2021-02-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-02-19 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-02-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-01-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-01-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-01-13 Price Changed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2021-01-01 Listed $149,000 HARMLS
• 2021-01-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-12-16 Price Changed $149,000 HARMLS
• 2020-12-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-12-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-11-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-11-11 Price Changed $157,900 HARMLS
• 2020-10-27 Price Changed $159,900 HARMLS
• 2020-10-21 Listed $168,000 HARMLS
• 2020-09-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-09-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-08-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-08-12 Listed $103,000 HARMLS
• 1990-06-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,864 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.